{"id":3454,"date":"2022-08-26T14:13:29","date_gmt":"2022-08-26T14:13:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/?page_id=3454"},"modified":"2024-12-23T09:05:06","modified_gmt":"2024-12-23T09:05:06","slug":"the-black-swan-summary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ar\/books\/the-black-swan-summary\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0645\u0644\u062e\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062c\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0621 | \u0646\u0633\u064a\u0645 \u0646\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0644\u0627\u0633 \u0637\u0627\u0644\u0628"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0648\u0631 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u063a\u0627\u064a\u0629<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0627\u0644\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0629 \u0645\u0634\u063a\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u062f\u064a\u0647\u0627\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/kCdCogG\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>\u0627\u0644\u0628\u062c\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0621<\/em><\/a>\u00a0\u0643\u0627\u0646 \u064a\u062c\u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u063a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0631\u0641 \u0643\u062a\u0628\u0643\u061f \u0628\u062f\u0644\u0627\u064b \u0645\u0646 \u0630\u0644\u0643\u060c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0643\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0626\u064a\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0622\u0646. \u0646\u062d\u0646 \u0646\u062e\u062f\u0634 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0637\u062d \u0647\u0646\u0627. \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0644\u0645 \u064a\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0627\u0628 \u0628\u062d\u0648\u0632\u062a\u0643 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0641\u0639\u0644\u060c \u0627\u0637\u0644\u0628\u0647 <a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/the-black-swan-book\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u0647\u0646\u0627<\/a>\u00a0\u0623\u0648 \u0627\u062d\u0635\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/kCdCogG\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u0643\u062a\u0627\u0628 \u0635\u0648\u062a\u064a \u0645\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0627\u064b<\/a>\u00a0\u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u0645\u0627\u0632\u0648\u0646 \u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0635\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062b\u064a\u0631\u0629.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"200\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/playlist.megaphone.fm?e=PARSIDA7035840384&amp;light=true\" width=\"100%\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u0645\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0629<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0647\u0644 \u0633\u0628\u0642 \u0644\u0643 \u0623\u0646 \u0648\u0636\u0639\u062a \u062e\u0637\u0629 \u0634\u0627\u0645\u0644\u0629\u060c \u0644\u0643\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0641\u0634\u0644\u062a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u064a \u062d\u0627\u0644\u061f \u0647\u0644 \u062a\u062c\u062f \u0646\u0641\u0633\u0643 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0648\u0627\u0642\u0641 \u0625\u064a\u062c\u0627\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u0648 \u0633\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u063a\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u062a\u0641\u0634\u0644 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u062a\u062e\u0627\u0630 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644\u061f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u062d\u0633\u0646\u0627\u060c \u0623\u0646\u062a \u0644\u0633\u062a \u0648\u062d\u062f\u0643. \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0623\u0646\u0643 \u0641\u064a \u0635\u062d\u0628\u0629 \u062c\u064a\u062f\u0629. \u062d\u062a\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0636\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0628\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0631\u062f \u0644\u0627 \u0646\u0647\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0647\u0627 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0623\u0646 \u062a\u0641\u0634\u0644. \u0648\u0644\u0627 \u062a\u0633\u062a\u0637\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u062c\u0629 \u0645\u0634\u0627\u0643\u0644 \u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0637\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u0628. \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0623\u0646\u0647\u0645 \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0633\u062a\u0637\u064a\u0639\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u063a\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0635 \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0633\u0648\u0621 \u062a\u062e\u0635\u064a\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0627\u0631\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0629.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062e\u0637\u064a\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0633\u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646\u0643 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u0635. \u0633\u064a\u0633\u0645\u062d \u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0628\u062a\u0642\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0626\u0631 \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0648\u0642\u0648\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0648\u0627\u0631\u062b. \u0643\u064a\u0641 \u062a\u0633\u062a\u0639\u062f \u0644\u0623\u062d\u062f\u0627\u062b \u0627\u0644\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0629 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639\u0629\u061f \u0647\u0644 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646\u0643 \u062a\u062d\u0633\u064a\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 \u0646\u062c\u0627\u062d \u062e\u0637\u0637\u0643\u061f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"><em>\u0627\u0644\u0628\u062c\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0621<\/em><\/a> \u064a\u0642\u0648\u0645 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0641\u0631\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0629 \u0645\u0644\u064a\u0626\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u0627\u062c\u0622\u062a. \u0628\u0639\u0636\u0647\u0627 \u062c\u064a\u062f\u060c \u0648\u0628\u0639\u0636\u0647\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0631\u062b\u064a. \u064a\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0631\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0627\u0628 \u0623\u062d\u062f\u0627\u062b\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0638\u0647\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0631\u0646\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u0648\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0645\u0631\u0629. \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0623\u0646\u0647 \u064a\u062f\u0631\u0633 \u0645\u064a\u0644\u0646\u0627 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0645 \u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0639\u0646\u062f\u0645\u0627 \u0646\u0648\u0627\u062c\u0647 \u0623\u062d\u062f\u0627\u062b\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u0647\u0645\u0629.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u064a\u0642\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0627\u0628 \u0646\u0638\u0631\u0629 \u062b\u0627\u0642\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062d\u062f\u0627\u062b \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639\u0629. \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0628\u062d\u062b \u0641\u064a \u0631\u062f\u0648\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0639\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0634\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c\u064a\u0629. \u0648\u0623\u062e\u064a\u0631\u0627\u064b\u060c \u064a\u0642\u062f\u0651\u0645 \u0646\u0635\u0627\u0626\u062d \u062d\u0648\u0644 \u0643\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0638\u0631\u0648\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u064a\u0627\u062a\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u0646\u0628\u0630\u0629 \u0639\u0646 \u0646\u0633\u064a\u0645 \u0646\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0644\u0627\u0633 \u0637\u0627\u0644\u0628<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/nassim-nicholas-taleb\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/nassim-nicholas-taleb\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">\u0646\u0633\u064a\u0645 \u0646\u0642\u0648\u0644\u0627 \u0637\u0627\u0644\u0628<\/a> \u0645\u0624\u0644\u0641 \u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0623\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0643\u064a. \u0648\u0647\u0648 \u0623\u064a\u0636\u064b\u0627 \u062e\u0628\u064a\u0631 \u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0648\u0645\u062d\u0644\u0644 \u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631 \u0648\u062a\u0627\u062c\u0631 \u062e\u064a\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0633\u0627\u0628\u0642. <em>\u0627\u0644\u0628\u062c\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0621<\/em> \u0647\u064a \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0644\u0633\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0624\u0644\u0641\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0645\u0633\u0629 \u0645\u062c\u0644\u062f\u0627\u062a\u060c <em>\u0625\u0646\u0633\u064a\u0631\u062a\u0648<\/em>. \u0644\u0642\u062f \u0646\u0634\u0631 <em>\u0625\u0646\u0633\u064a\u0631\u062a\u0648 <\/em>\u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0639\u0627\u0645\u064a 2001 \u06482018. \u064a\u0642\u0648\u0645 \u0637\u0627\u0644\u0628 \u0628\u062a\u062f\u0631\u064a\u0633 \u0647\u0646\u062f\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0627\u0646\u062f\u0648\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0647\u0646\u062f\u0633\u0629 \u0628\u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0646\u064a\u0648\u064a\u0648\u0631\u0643 \u0648\u0647\u0648 <em>\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a <\/em>\u0645\u062d\u0631\u0631 \u0645\u0634\u0627\u0631\u0643 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u062c\u0644\u0629. \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0625\u0636\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0630\u0644\u0643\u060c \u0642\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0645\u064a\u0632 \u0628\u062a\u0623\u0644\u064a\u0641 \u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0639\u0634\u0631\u0629 \u0643\u062a\u0628 \u0645\u0644\u0647\u0645\u0629.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0625\u0646 \u0623\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0628 \u0637\u0627\u0644\u0628 \u0641\u064a \u0625\u062f\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631 \u062c\u0639\u0644\u0647 \u064a\u0633\u062a\u0641\u064a\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0632\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u0635\u0631\u0629. \u0648\u0647\u0648 \u064a\u062f\u0639\u0648 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0639 \u0646\u0647\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062c\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0621 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0648\u0627\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u064a\u0644\u0628\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062d\u062f\u0627\u062b \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u064a\u0635\u0639\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0647\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631. \u064a\u062f\u0639\u0648 \u0637\u0627\u0644\u0628 \u0623\u064a\u0636\u064b\u0627 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0645\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0627\u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632\u064a \u0648\u064a\u0647\u062f\u0641 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0633\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062b\u063a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0642\u0627\u0645 \u0646\u0633\u064a\u0645 \u0637\u0627\u0644\u0628 \u0628\u062a\u0623\u0644\u064a\u0641 \u0623\u0631\u0628\u0639\u0629 \u0643\u062a\u0628 \u0623\u062e\u0631\u0649 \u0641\u064a <em>\u0625\u0646\u0633\u064a\u0631\u062a\u0648<\/em>. These books have won many accolades and have gained a global audience. Taleb\u2019s unique style includes a mixed narrative; the reporting is semi-autobiographical and philosophical. In summary, it has led <em>\u0627\u0644\u0628\u062c\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0621 <\/em>\u0644\u0644\u0641\u0648\u0632 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0648\u0627\u0626\u0632.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #1: The Black Swan Events are Unprecedented and Have a Huge Impact. Later, They Are Explained Away as Predictable<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u064a\u0642\u0641\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062c\u062a\u0645\u0639 \u2013 \u0641\u0627\u0644\u062a\u063a\u064a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0631\u064a\u062c\u064a \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u062d\u062f\u062b \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0646\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639. \u064a\u062a\u0636\u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0645\u064a \u062a\u062a\u0628\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062d\u062f\u0627\u062b \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621\u064b \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u0645. \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0624\u0633\u0641 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062c\u062a\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062a \u062a\u0646\u062a\u0642\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0643\u0633\u0631 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0643\u0633\u0631\u060c \u0648\u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062d\u062f\u0627\u062b \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629 \u0623\u0645\u0631 \u0645\u0639\u064a\u0628.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">People mainly saw white swans for the majority of history. Some societies even believed that the black swans did not exist. A group of explorers first saw a black swan in Western Australia in 1967. The stunning news spread across Europe and the world like wildfire. The tale of the black swan inspired many scholars. Philosophers such as John Stuart Mill used the term \u2018<em>\u0627\u0644\u0628\u062c\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0621<\/em>\u0639\u0646\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0634\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u062d\u062f\u0627\u062b \u0646\u0627\u062f\u0631\u0629 \u0648\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0644\u0629.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Taleb proposes that <strong>the black swan<\/strong> events have the following characteristics:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u0644\u0627 \u064a\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0645\u0646\u0647\u0645.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0647\u0645 \u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0643\u0628\u064a\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u064a\u0642\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u0633 \u0644\u0627\u062d\u0642\u064b\u0627 \u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0642\u0646\u0639\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u0627 \u062d\u062f\u062b.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u062a\u0634\u0645\u0644 \u0623\u062d\u062f\u0627\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062c\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0632\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0646\u0647\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642 \u0639\u0627\u0645 1987. \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0623\u0646 \u0623\u062d\u062f\u0627\u062b 11 \u0633\u0628\u062a\u0645\u0628\u0631 \u0648\u0627\u0643\u062a\u0634\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0636\u0627\u062f\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u064a\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0647\u064a \u0623\u064a\u0636\u064b\u0627 \u0623\u062d\u062f\u0627\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062c\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0621.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0647\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u062d\u062f\u062b\u064b\u0627 \u0623\u0633\u0648\u062f. \u0641\u0642\u062f \u0639\u0627\u0634 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u064a\u062d\u064a\u0648\u0646 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0646 \u0628\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0645 \u0644\u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0645\u0646 1300 \u0639\u0627\u0645. \u0648\u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0642\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u062f\u0639\u0648 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0633\u0627\u0645\u062d. \u0648\u0643\u0627\u0646 \u062a\u0644\u0627\u0645\u064a\u0630 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0627\u0631\u0633 \u064a\u062d\u062a\u0631\u0645\u0648\u0646 \u062b\u0642\u0627\u0641\u0627\u062a \u062c\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0646\u0647\u0645.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0627\u0646\u062a\u0647\u062a \u062d\u0631\u0628 \u062f\u064a\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u062f\u0627\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0636\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u064a\u062f\u0629. \u0648\u0634\u0627\u0647\u062f \u062a\u0644\u0627\u0645\u064a\u0630 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0627\u0631\u0633 \u0641\u064a \u062d\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0635\u062f\u0645\u0629 \u062a\u062d\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0646 \u0636\u062f \u0628\u0639\u0636\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0639\u0636. \u0648\u062f\u0645\u0631\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0646\u0627\u0628\u0644 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0631\u0635\u0627\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u0637\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0643\u0646\u064a\u0629. \u0648\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0646 \u0623\u0646 \u062a\u0646\u062a\u0647\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u0628 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u00ab\u0623\u064a\u0627\u0645 \u0642\u0644\u064a\u0644\u0629\u00bb. \u0648\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631\u062a \u0633\u0628\u0639\u0629 \u0639\u0634\u0631 \u0639\u0627\u0645\u0627. \u0648\u0641\u064a \u0648\u0642\u062a \u0644\u0627\u062d\u0642\u060c \u0642\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0621 \u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0642\u0646\u0639\u0629 \u0644\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u0648\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u0628.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Black swan events extend to the expansion of small cults to global religions. Later generations are born thinking of particular beliefs as facts of life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #2: \u0646\u062d\u0646 \u0646\u0639\u064a\u0634 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u0629 \u0645\u062a\u0637\u0631\u0641\u0629\u060c \u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0641\u0626 \u0645\u0639 \u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0645\u062a\u0637\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0647\u0627<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0646\u062d\u0646 \u0646\u0639\u064a\u0634 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0646 \u0645\u0646\u0641\u0635\u0644\u064a\u0646: <a href=\"https:\/\/people.wou.edu\/~shawd\/mediocristan--extremistan.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">\u0627\u0644\u0648\u0633\u0637\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0637\u0631\u0641<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0648\u0631 \u0645\u062a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0645\u062a\u0634\u0627\u0628\u0647\u0629. \u0644\u0642\u062f \u062c\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0634\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645. \u0625\u0646\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u064a\u0637\u0627\u0628\u0642 \u062d\u062f\u0633\u0646\u0627. \u0646\u062d\u0646 \u0646\u0624\u0645\u0646 \u0628\u0623\u0646 \u062c\u0648\u0627\u0646\u0628 \u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0637\u0648\u0644\u0646\u0627 \u0648\u0631\u0648\u0627\u062a\u0628\u0646\u0627 \u0645\u062a\u0633\u0627\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u064a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u064a\u062f\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u064a\u062a\u062c\u0647 \u0646\u062d\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0631\u0641. \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0631\u0641\u060c \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0637\u0631\u0641\u0629 \u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628. \u0644\u064a\u0633 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0647\u0644 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u064a\u0639\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u064a\u062f\u0629. \u0641\u0643\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0645\u0646 50 \u0634\u062e\u0635\u0627\u064b. \u0642\u062f \u064a\u0645\u062a\u0644\u0643 \u0641\u0631\u062f \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f \u062b\u0631\u0648\u0629 \u062a\u0641\u0648\u0642 \u062b\u0631\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0639\u0636\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0640 49 \u0627\u0644\u0622\u062e\u0631\u064a\u0646 \u0645\u062c\u062a\u0645\u0639\u064a\u0646. \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0639\u0636\u0648 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0623\u0637\u0648\u0644 \u0628\u0643\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0622\u062e\u0631\u064a\u0646.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637\u060c \u0646\u062d\u0646 \u0646\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0637\u063a\u064a\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0639\u064a. \u0646\u062d\u0646 \u0646\u0631\u0643\u0632 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0627 \u0647\u0648 \u0648\u0627\u0636\u062d. \u0646\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0648\u0646\u0633\u062a\u0639\u062f \u0644\u0647. \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0637\u0631\u0641\u060c \u0637\u063a\u064a\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u0631\u062f \u064a\u0647\u064a\u0645\u0646 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062c\u062a\u0645\u0639. \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0648\u0627\u062f\u062b \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0623\u062d\u062f\u0627\u062b \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0645\u0644\u064a \u062d\u064a\u0627\u062a\u0646\u0627.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0646\u0648\u0644\u0648\u062c\u064a\u0627 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u0635\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a \u0647\u0645\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0624\u0648\u0644\u0627\u0646 \u062c\u0632\u0626\u064a\u0627\u064b \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0631\u0641. \u0644\u0642\u062f \u0639\u0645\u0644\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0637\u0628\u0639\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0644\u0641\u0632\u064a\u0648\u0646 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0631\u0646\u062a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0633\u0631\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0635\u0648\u0644\u0627\u064b \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0645\u062a\u0637\u0631\u0641.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0633\u064a\u0639\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0645\u0646 \u0623\u0648\u0628\u0626\u0629 \u062d\u0627\u062f\u0629. \u0633\u0648\u0641 \u062a\u0647\u064a\u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0631\u0627\u062b\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062d\u064a\u0627\u062a\u0646\u0627\u060c \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u063a\u0645 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062c\u0627\u0632\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062d\u0642\u0642\u0646\u0627\u0647\u0627. \u0633\u064a\u0633\u064a\u0637\u0631 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0623\u0642\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0634\u062e\u0627\u0635 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0643\u0627\u062a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0632\u064a\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0631\u0648\u0629. \u0648\u0633\u0648\u0641 \u062a\u062a\u0632\u0627\u064a\u062f \u0641\u062c\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0648\u062a\u060c \u0648\u0633\u0648\u0641 \u062a\u0635\u0628\u062d \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062f\u0639 \u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u062d\u062f\u0629.<strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0631\u064a \u0634\u0648\u062a #3: \u0646\u062d\u0646 \u0646\u0628\u0627\u0644\u063a \u0641\u064a \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0627 \u0646\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0647 \u0648\u0646\u063a\u0641\u0644 \u0639\u0645\u0627 \u0644\u0627 \u0646\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0647<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0641\u064a \u0639\u0627\u0645 2002\u060c \u0639\u0644\u0642 \u062f\u0648\u0646\u0627\u0644\u062f \u0631\u0627\u0645\u0633\u0641\u064a\u0644\u062f\u060c \u0648\u0632\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0631\u064a\u0643\u064a\u060c \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u0628 \u0641\u064a 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\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0632\u0627\u0631\u0639\u064a\u0646. \u062b\u0645 \u064a\u0623\u062a\u064a \u0639\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0643\u0631. \u064a\u0634\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0648\u0645\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0627\u0646 \u0628\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u062f\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0642\u0633\u0648\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0632\u0627\u0631\u0639.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"5c88e5d652\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+problem+with+experts+is+that+they+do+not+know+what+they+do+not+know.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb+%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Far%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\"\u0645\u0634\u0643\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0628\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u0647\u064a \u0623\u0646\u0647\u0645 \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u0627 \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0648\u0646\u0647.\" - \u0646\u0633\u064a\u0645 \u0646\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0644\u0627\u0633 \u0637\u0627\u0644\u0628 #theblackswan<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+problem+with+experts+is+that+they+do+not+know+what+they+do+not+know.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb+%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Far%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>\u0627\u0646\u0642\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u063a\u0631\u064a\u062f<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0648\u063a\u064a\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0644\u064a\u0633 \u062f\u0644\u064a\u0644\u0627 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u063a\u064a\u0627\u0628. \u0623\u062d\u062f\u0627\u062b \u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0647\u062c\u0645\u0627\u062a 11 \u0633\u0628\u062a\u0645\u0628\u0631\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0646\u0647\u064a\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0633\u0643\u0627\u0646\u060c \u0648\u062d\u0631\u0628 \u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0646 \u0623\u0636\u0631\u062a \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062c\u062a\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0643\u0628\u064a\u0631. \u0648\u0642\u062f \u0648\u0642\u0639\u062a \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062d\u062f\u0627\u062b 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\u0646\u062d\u0646 \u0646\u0631\u0643\u0632 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0627\u0636\u062d\u0629 \u0648\u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0636\u0627\u064a\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0634\u064a\u0631 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0641 \u0630\u0644\u0643.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0625\u0646 \u062a\u062d\u064a\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0642\u0627\u0621 \u0647\u0648 \u0645\u064a\u0644\u0646\u0627 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0631\u0643\u064a\u0632 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u062b\u0644\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0631\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u062c\u062d\u064a\u0646. \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0627\u0626\u0639 \u0623\u062e\u0630 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0648\u0633 \u0645\u0646 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0642\u062f\u0648\u0629. \u0645\u0627\u0630\u0627 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0631\u0627\u062f \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0626\u064a\u064a\u0646\u061f \u0628\u0639\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u0633 \u0642\u062f \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u062d\u0642\u0642\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0639\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062c\u0627\u062d. \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0631\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a\u0646 \u064a\u0639\u0645\u0644\u0648\u0646 \u0628\u062c\u062f\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0636\u0628\u0627\u0637\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u0633\u0627\u0642 \u0642\u062f \u064a\u0641\u0634\u0644\u0648\u0646 \u0623\u064a\u0636\u064b\u0627. \u0645\u0639\u0638\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u0633 \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0644\u0646\u0648\u0646 \u0639\u0646 \u0625\u062e\u0641\u0627\u0642\u0627\u062a\u0647\u0645\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0631\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062b\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0621 \u064a\u0643\u062a\u0628\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0645\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064b\u0627.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u064a\u062c\u0628 \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0646\u0627 \u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u062c\u0645\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0631\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a\u0646 \u063a\u0627\u0645\u0631\u0648\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0624\u0633\u0633\u0629 \u0645\u0639\u064a\u0646\u0629. \u063a\u0627\u0644\u0628\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u0627 \u0646\u0642\u0644\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0634\u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0627\u0645\u062a\u0629 \u0623\u0648 \u0646\u0633\u062a\u0628\u0639\u062f\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u0645\u0627\u0645\u064b\u0627. \u0648\u0645\u0639 \u0630\u0644\u0643\u060c \u0641\u0625\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0633\u0648\u0641 \u0646\u0633\u062a\u0641\u064a\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u063a\u0644\u0628 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u062d\u064a\u0632\u0627\u062a\u0646\u0627.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"5c88e5d652\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CWhen+you+develop+your+opinions+on+the+basis+of+weak+evidence%2C+you+will+have+difficulty+interpreting+subsequent+information+that+contradicts+these+opinions%2C+even+if+this+new+information+is+obviously+more+accurate.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Far%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\"\u0639\u0646\u062f\u0645\u0627 \u062a\u0637\u0648\u0631 \u0622\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0643 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633 \u0623\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0636\u0639\u064a\u0641\u0629\u060c \u0633\u062a\u0648\u0627\u062c\u0647 \u0635\u0639\u0648\u0628\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u062a\u0639\u0627\u0631\u0636 \u0645\u0639 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0622\u0631\u0627\u0621\u060c \u062d\u062a\u0649 \u0644\u0648 \u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u062f\u064a\u062f\u0629 \u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u062f\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0648\u0627\u0636\u062d.\" - \u0646\u0633\u064a\u0645 \u0646\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0644\u0627\u0633 \u0637\u0627\u0644\u0628&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CWhen+you+develop+your+opinions+on+the+basis+of+weak+evidence%2C+you+will+have+difficulty+interpreting+subsequent+information+that+contradicts+these+opinions%2C+even+if+this+new+information+is+obviously+more+accurate.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Far%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>\u0627\u0646\u0642\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u063a\u0631\u064a\u062f<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #4: People Create Stories about Why The Black Swans Happened, Which Covers Up How Unexpected They Were<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0646\u062d\u0646 \u0633\u0631\u064a\u0639\u0648\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0645 \u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629 \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0648\u0642\u0648\u0639 \u0623\u062d\u062f\u0627\u062b \u0645\u062a\u0637\u0631\u0641\u0629. \u062d\u0628\u0646\u0627 \u0644\u0644\u0642\u0635\u0635 \u064a\u062c\u0639\u0644\u0646\u0627 \u0646\u0628\u0633\u0651\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062d\u062f\u0627\u062b \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0635\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0642\u064a\u0642\u0629. \u062a\u062e\u0644\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u063a\u0627\u0644\u0637\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0631\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u064a\u064b\u0627 \u062a\u0645\u0627\u0645\u064b\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0623\u0630\u0647\u0627\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u062f\u0631 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"5c88e5d652\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CYou+need+a+story+to+displace+a+story.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Far%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\"\u0623\u0646\u062a \u0628\u062d\u0627\u062c\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0642\u0635\u0629 \u0644\u0625\u0632\u0627\u062d\u0629 \u0642\u0635\u0629.\" - \u0646\u0633\u064a\u0645 \u0646\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0644\u0627\u0633 \u0637\u0627\u0644\u0628&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CYou+need+a+story+to+displace+a+story.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Far%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>\u0627\u0646\u0642\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u063a\u0631\u064a\u062f<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u064a\u062f\u0641\u0639\u0646\u0627 \u0634\u063a\u0641\u0646\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0642\u0635\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u064a\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b \u0639\u0646 \u0623\u0633\u0628\u0627\u0628 \u0644\u0643\u0644 \u0645\u0627 \u0646\u0631\u0627\u0647. \u062a\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a\u0646\u0627 \u062a\u0631\u0628\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0642\u0627\u0626\u0642 \u0628\u0628\u0639\u0636\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0639\u0636. \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062a\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0626\u064a\u0633\u064a \u0647\u0648 \u0642\u0635\u0629 \u0633\u0647\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0630\u0643\u0631\u060c \u062a\u0631\u0636\u064a \"\u0627\u0644\u062d\u0642\u0627\u0626\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e\u064a\u0629\".<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"5c88e5d652\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+more+we+try+to+turn+history+into+anything+other+than+an+enumeration+of+accounts+to+be+enjoyed+with+minimal+theorizing%2C+the+more+we+get+into+trouble.+Are+we+so+plagued+with+the+narrative+fallacy%3F%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Far%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\"\u0643\u0644\u0645\u0627 \u062d\u0627\u0648\u0644\u0646\u0627 \u0623\u0646 \u0646\u062d\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u062a\u062d\u0648\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0631\u064a\u062e \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u064a \u0634\u064a\u0621 \u0622\u062e\u0631 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u062a\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0648\u0627\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u064a\u062c\u0628 \u0623\u0646 \u0646\u0633\u062a\u0645\u062a\u0639 \u0628\u0647\u0627 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0646\u0649 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0638\u064a\u0631\u060c \u0643\u0644\u0645\u0627 \u0648\u0642\u0639\u0646\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0648\u0631\u0637\u0629. \u0647\u0644 \u0646\u062d\u0646 \u0645\u0628\u062a\u0644\u0648\u0646 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u063a\u0627\u0644\u0637\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0631\u062f\u064a\u0629\u061f\" - \u0646\u0633\u064a\u0645 \u0646\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0644\u0627\u0633 \u0637\u0627\u0644\u0628&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+more+we+try+to+turn+history+into+anything+other+than+an+enumeration+of+accounts+to+be+enjoyed+with+minimal+theorizing%2C+the+more+we+get+into+trouble.+Are+we+so+plagued+with+the+narrative+fallacy%3F%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Far%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>\u0627\u0646\u0642\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u063a\u0631\u064a\u062f<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Black swan events lie beyond the information we have. Yet still, we distort facts. Reducing information into a set of facts affects our reactions to rare events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0641\u064a \u0643\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0646 \u064a\u0646\u062f\u0631\u062c \u0646\u0647\u062c\u0646\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0629 \u062a\u062d\u062a \u0641\u0626\u062a\u064a\u0646 \u0631\u0626\u064a\u0633\u064a\u062a\u064a\u0646. \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u060c \u0646\u062d\u0646 \u062a\u062c\u0631\u064a\u0628\u064a\u0648\u0646\u061b \u0646\u062d\u0646 \u0646\u0642\u0631\u0631 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u062c\u0632\u0621 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621\u064b \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u062f\u0633. \u0646\u062d\u0646 \u0646\u0637\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062f\u0644\u0627\u0644 (\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0635\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a). \u0625\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u0645\u0643\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0635\u0644 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u062d\u0644\u0648\u0644 \u0633\u0631\u064a\u0639\u0629 \u0639\u0646\u062f\u0645\u0627 \u0646\u0648\u0627\u062c\u0647 \u062d\u062f\u062b\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u0639\u064a\u0646\u064b\u0627. \u064a\u062c\u0628 \u0623\u0646 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0644\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0631\u064a\u0639\u0629 \u0641\u0627\u0636\u0644\u0629. \u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0635\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0636\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u0646\u062f\u0645\u0627 \u0646\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a \u062e\u0627\u0637\u0626\u0629.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u062b\u0627\u0646\u064a\u064b\u0627\u060c \u0646\u0628\u0630\u0644 \u062c\u0647\u0648\u062f\u064b\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0641\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0646\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0648\u0647\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0647\u0627\u061b \"\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0643\u064a\u0631\". \u0648\u063a\u0627\u0644\u0628\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u0627 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0637\u064a\u0626\u0629 \u0648\u062a\u062f\u0631\u064a\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u064a\u0629. \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0643\u064a\u0631 \u064a\u0631\u062a\u0643\u0628 \u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0621 \u0623\u0642\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062f\u0644\u0627\u0644. \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0630\u0644\u0643\u060c \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0645\u0631\u0627\u062c\u0639\u0629 \u062e\u0637\u0648\u0627\u062a\u0646\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u062a\u062e\u0627\u0630 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0644\u062a\u0635\u062d\u064a\u062d \u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0621 \u0645\u062d\u062f\u062f\u0629.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The first system made us believe that the black swans are non-existent. Thinking could have eliminated the problem. A systematic inquiry into the question would have eliminated biases. Heuristics are often based on emotions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We must overcome the fallacy of creating stories by better understanding current events, and studying matters at a deeper level to learn fundamental drivers. We should also treat the black swans as possibilities and prepare for worst-case scenarios accordingly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #5: We Worry Over What Has Happened in the Past and Ignore Everything Else That is Not Obvious<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We often fall prey to using unrealistic models in explaining events. We cannot manage factors in our immediate environment. Worse still, we make our assumptions in sterilized environments such as classrooms. Even in scientific research, we sometimes accept results with little regard for the method.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"5c88e5d652\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+Black+Swan+asymmetry+allows+you+to+be+confident+about+what+is+wrong%2C+not+about+what+you+believe+is+right.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Far%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\"\u064a\u062a\u064a\u062d \u0644\u0643 \u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062b\u0644 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062c\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0621 \u0623\u0646 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0648\u0627\u062b\u0642\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u0647\u0648 \u062e\u0627\u0637\u0626\u060c \u0648\u0644\u064a\u0633 \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u062a\u0639\u062a\u0642\u062f \u0623\u0646\u0647 \u0635\u062d\u064a\u062d.\" - \u0646\u0633\u064a\u0645 \u0646\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0644\u0627\u0633 \u0637\u0627\u0644\u0628&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+Black+Swan+asymmetry+allows+you+to+be+confident+about+what+is+wrong%2C+not+about+what+you+believe+is+right.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Far%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>\u0627\u0646\u0642\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u063a\u0631\u064a\u062f<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We even assign probabilities to events. Also, we spare enough resources to manage them. We base the preparation on our assessments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is challenging to overlook our cognitive biases. Yet, we must overcome them to manage the mysteries of life better. We need to explore issues on a broader scale. We should accept the results of studies. We should avoid dismissing extreme variables (outliers) as errors. We are better off by understanding the causes and nature of outliers in extremistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"5c88e5d652\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CMistaking+a+naive+observation+of+the+past+as+something+definitive+or+representative+of+the+future+is+the+one+and+only+cause+of+our+inability+to+understand+The+Black+Swan.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Far%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\"\u0625\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0644\u0637 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0638\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0630\u062c\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0636\u064a \u0643\u0634\u064a\u0621 \u0646\u0647\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0623\u0648 \u0645\u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0647\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u062d\u064a\u062f \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0648\u062d\u064a\u062f \u0644\u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0642\u062f\u0631\u062a\u0646\u0627 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0641\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062c\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0621.\" - \u0646\u0633\u064a\u0645 \u0646\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0644\u0627\u0633 \u0637\u0627\u0644\u0628&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CMistaking+a+naive+observation+of+the+past+as+something+definitive+or+representative+of+the+future+is+the+one+and+only+cause+of+our+inability+to+understand+The+Black+Swan.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Far%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>\u0627\u0646\u0642\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u063a\u0631\u064a\u062f<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #6: We Are Growing Smarter, Yet, Our Overconfidence Grows at a Faster Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Humans make predictions all the time. Unfortunately,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/pascalemmanuelgobry\/2012\/07\/26\/how-to-predict-the-future-in-3-simple-steps\/?sh=41c274da1c5d\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"> we cannot make accurate predictions<\/a>. Our minds cannot understand daily events and manage trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Modern technologies such as the Internet, and blockchain, shape our lives. We also rely on medical breakthroughs and science when predicting the future. We forget how unexpected these advances were and feel overconfident in predictions. But, we base the estimates on the same bias. We cling to our stories and make predictions based on the available facts. Our estimations can only be correct if our information is not too reduced.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"5c88e5d652\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9C...we+are+demonstrably+arrogant+about+what+we+think+we+know.+We+certainly+know+a+lot%2C+but+we+have+a+built-in+tendency+to+think+that+we+know+a+little+bit+more+than+we+actually+do%2C+enough+of+that+little+bit+to+occasionally+get+into+serious+trouble.%E2%80%9C+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Far%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\"... \u0646\u062d\u0646 \u0645\u063a\u0631\u0648\u0631\u0648\u0646 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0648\u0627\u0636\u062d \u0628\u0634\u0623\u0646 \u0645\u0627 \u0646\u0639\u062a\u0642\u062f \u0623\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0646\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0647. \u0646\u062d\u0646 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0623\u0643\u064a\u062f \u0646\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062b\u064a\u0631\u060c \u0648\u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0644\u062f\u064a\u0646\u0627 \u0645\u064a\u0644 \u0645\u062a\u0623\u0635\u0644 \u0644\u0644\u0627\u0639\u062a\u0642\u0627\u062f \u0628\u0623\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0646\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0628\u0642\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u0646\u0639\u0631\u0641\u0647 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0641\u0639\u0644\u060c \u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0643\u0641\u064a \u0645\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0644\u0644\u0648\u0642\u0648\u0639 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0634\u0627\u0643\u0644 \u062e\u0637\u064a\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u062d\u064a\u0646 \u0644\u0622\u062e\u0631.\" - \u0646\u0633\u064a\u0645 \u0646\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0644\u0627\u0633 \u0637\u0627\u0644\u0628&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9C...we+are+demonstrably+arrogant+about+what+we+think+we+know.+We+certainly+know+a+lot%2C+but+we+have+a+built-in+tendency+to+think+that+we+know+a+little+bit+more+than+we+actually+do%2C+enough+of+that+little+bit+to+occasionally+get+into+serious+trouble.%E2%80%9C+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Far%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>\u0627\u0646\u0642\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u063a\u0631\u064a\u062f<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We now have advanced data analysis. We can even use simulations to predict the future with higher accuracy. It is true; we are more intelligent. We have developed more specialized tools for risk analysis than our predecessors. Are we better off in making predictions, or are we overconfident in our abilities?<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"5c88e5d652\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+payoff+of+a+human+venture+is%2C+in+general%2C+inversely+proportional+to+what+it+is+expected+to+be.%E2%80%9C+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Far%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\"\u064a\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u0645\u0631\u062f\u0648\u062f \u0623\u064a \u0645\u0634\u0631\u0648\u0639 \u0628\u0634\u0631\u064a \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0639\u0627\u0645 \u062a\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628\u064b\u0627 \u0639\u0643\u0633\u064a\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u0639 \u0645\u0627 \u0647\u0648 \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639 \u0645\u0646\u0647.\" - \u0646\u0633\u064a\u0645 \u0646\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0644\u0627\u0633 \u0637\u0627\u0644\u0628&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+payoff+of+a+human+venture+is%2C+in+general%2C+inversely+proportional+to+what+it+is+expected+to+be.%E2%80%9C+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Far%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>\u0627\u0646\u0642\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u063a\u0631\u064a\u062f<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In conclusion, we are better off when we understand events by studying them with an open mind. We should replace forecasting with self-awareness. Our success in life is not based on our ability to predict the future. It relies on our preparedness to react to and manage daily occurrences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #7: Knowing How to Handle Issues is More Important than the Ability to Anticipate Them<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Great things are often unexpected. America may be one of the greatest nations in the current world. Yet, it was an accidental discovery. Explorers were looking for a route to India.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The US has since progressed from being a random overseas territory. It is now home to giant companies such as Google, Amazon and Microsoft. The key insight here is that prosperity and success can occur even without an outstanding forecasting ability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Given that there is no escaping from extreme events, the genius lies in handling them. We should understand how to best prepare for unexpected fortunes and crises, rather than try to predict them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #8: What to Do When You Cannot Predict Changes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our cognitive arrogance is our own major enemy. We need to make and execute plans well. Smaller events such as going to the picnic are more beneficial. We should not worry about large-scale harmful predictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"5c88e5d652\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CMissing+a+train+is+only+painful+if+you+run+after+it.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Far%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\"\u0625\u0646 \u062a\u0641\u0648\u064a\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0637\u0627\u0631 \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u0624\u0644\u0645\u064b\u0627 \u0625\u0644\u0627 \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0631\u0643\u0636\u062a \u0648\u0631\u0627\u0621\u0647.\" - \u0646\u0633\u064a\u0645 \u0646\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0644\u0627\u0633 \u0637\u0627\u0644\u0628&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CMissing+a+train+is+only+painful+if+you+run+after+it.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Far%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>\u0627\u0646\u0642\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u063a\u0631\u064a\u062f<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Often, we cannot predict extreme events. They lack a cause-and-effect relationship. We do not need large databases to enjoy positive black swans and cut losses with negative ones.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"5c88e5d652\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CWhat+is+surprising+is+not+our+magnitude+of+forecast+errors%2C+but+our+absence+of+awareness+of+it.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Far%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\"\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0647\u0634\u0629 \u0644\u064a\u0633 \u062d\u062c\u0645 \u0623\u062e\u0637\u0627\u0626\u0646\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639\u0627\u062a\u060c \u0628\u0644 \u063a\u064a\u0627\u0628 \u0648\u0639\u064a\u0646\u0627 \u0628\u0647\u0627.\" - \u0646\u0633\u064a\u0645 \u0646\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0644\u0627\u0633 \u0637\u0627\u0644\u0628&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CWhat+is+surprising+is+not+our+magnitude+of+forecast+errors%2C+but+our+absence+of+awareness+of+it.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Far%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>\u0627\u0646\u0642\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u063a\u0631\u064a\u062f<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Placing oneself in the right situations will enable you to manage mysteries in life. Stay where there are more potential returns than losses. For example, when investing your money, you are better off allocating up to 90% to safe enterprises. Allocating 10% to speculative enterprises is prudent in two key ways. First, you enjoy positive black swan events. Second, you still have 90% of your investment secured in case of a negative black swan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #9: We are Better Off When We Delay Gratification. Being A Black Swan Hunter Can be a Risky Endeavor<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u063a\u0627\u0644\u0628\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0647\u062f\u0641 \u0625\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0643\u0646\u0627 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0646\u062d\u0646\u0627 \u0645\u0643\u0627\u0641\u0622\u062a \u0645\u0633\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0645\u0629. \u0641\u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0633\u0628\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062b\u0627\u0644\u060c \u0641\u064a \u0645\u062c\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0639\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0646\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u064a\u062d\u0642\u0642 \u0639\u0627\u0626\u062f\u064b\u0627 \u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a\u064b\u0627 \u0648\u0646\u0623\u0645\u0644 \u0623\u0644\u0627 \u062a\u0642\u0639 \u0623\u062d\u062f\u0627\u062b \u0633\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0629. \u0648\u0646\u0639\u062a\u0628\u0631 \u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0639 \"\u0646\u0627\u062c\u062d\u0629\".<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0635\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062c\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0621 \"\u0645\u062d\u0641\u0648\u0641 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631\". \u064a\u0631\u0643\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u064a\u0627\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0628\u064a\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062c\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0644\u0641\u064a\u0629 - \u0633\u0648\u0627\u0621 \u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a \u0625\u064a\u062c\u0627\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u0648 \u0633\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0629. \u0648\u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0642\u062a \u0646\u0641\u0633\u0647\u060c \u064a\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u064a\u0627\u062f \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0632\u064a\u0641. \u0646\u062d\u0646 \u0646\u062e\u0633\u0631 \u0628\u0639\u062f\u0645 \u062a\u063a\u064a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0648\u0642\u0641\u0646\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0623\u0648\u0642\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062c\u0639\u060c \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u062c\u0628 \u0623\u0646 \u0646\u0631\u0643\u0632 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642 \u0639\u0627\u0626\u062f \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642. \u0648\u064a\u0634\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0642\u0628\u0648\u0646 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0647\u0624\u0644\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0631\u0627\u062f \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0624\u0633\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u0646\u0647\u0645 \"\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0646\u0627\u062c\u062d\u064a\u0646\".<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hunting the black swan demands personal stamina as much as intellectual prowess.<a href=\"https:\/\/positivepsychology.com\/delayed-gratification-exercises-worksheets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"> A lot of waiting is necessary<\/a>\u0648\u0645\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062a\u0638\u0627\u0631 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0639\u0631\u0648\u0641\u0629. \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0633\u0628\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062b\u0627\u0644\u060c \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0647\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0648\u064a\u0631\u060c \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0643\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u0636\u062e\u0645\u0629. \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u0623\u064a\u0636\u064b\u0627 \u062a\u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642 \u062e\u0633\u0627\u0626\u0631 \u0645\u062f\u0645\u0631\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0623\u064a \u0648\u0642\u062a \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u062a\u062e\u0627\u0630 \u0645\u0648\u0642\u0641 \"\u0645\u062d\u0641\u0648\u0641 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631\".<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A black swan hunter is open-minded and always ready. They expect extreme positive and adverse events. For them, extreme events are the culmination of their delayed gratification.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Black Swan summary and review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>In summary, a black swan is an improbable event with three key characteristics.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Black Swan is unexpected<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It has a massive impact<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>We offer convincing explanations on how it occurred in an attempt to summarize the storyline<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Notable black swan events include the great success of Google, the 9\/11 terrorist attacks, and the market crash of 1987. Black swan events dominate our lives. We face them both on a societal level, such as the rise of religions and in our personal lives, such as the death of loved ones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">How come we do not acknowledge black swan events until they occur? Part of the answer is that we are human beings. We focus on learning specifics instead of focusing on individual events. Often, we maim ourselves by focusing on what we know. We have many biases that we often ignore. Thus, we underestimate opportunities and risks. We tend to simplify events, categorize them, and offer explanations. Sometimes, we rule out some events as impossible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our focus on inconsequential and irrelevant events is risky. We do not understand everything. Significant events keep surprising us and frustrating our efforts to meet specific goals. There are simple tricks to deal with black swan events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To cut surprises in life, prepare for the worst-case scenario. Position yourself in an industry with high returns. Also, focus on understanding trends instead of predicting events. Take advantage of opportunities since positive black swans could transform your life. Skepticism is essential\u2014avoid ideas that do not leave space for unknown variables. Place yourself in situations where payoffs exceed potential risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">\u0627\u0644\u0628\u062c\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0621<\/a> <\/em>\u0645\u0630\u0647\u0644 \u0648\u0623\u0646\u064a\u0642 \u0648\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a \u0641\u064a \u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u0647. \u064a\u062d\u062a\u0648\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0627\u0628 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062e\u0641\u0629 \u062f\u0645 \u0648\u0637\u0631\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0631\u0627\u0636\u0627\u062a \u0645\u062b\u064a\u0631\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0623\u062d\u062f\u0627\u062b \u0627\u0644\u064a\u0648\u0645\u064a\u0629. \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0627\u0628 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0631\u0648\u0627\u0626\u0639 \u0646\u0633\u064a\u0645 \u0637\u0627\u0644\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062f\u064a\u062f\u0629. \u0641\u0647\u0648 \u064a\u0647\u062f\u0641 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0641\u0643 - \u0648\u0644\u0648 \u062c\u0632\u0626\u064a\u064b\u0627 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0642\u0644 - \u0628\u0639\u0636 \u0623\u0644\u063a\u0627\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0629. \u0645\u0627 \u0647\u0648 \u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0645\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0639\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0648\u0627\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0633\u064a\u0637\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0645\u0643\u0646\u0643 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0638\u0631\u0648\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u064a\u0627\u062a\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629\u061f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Black Swan summary rating<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0646\u062d\u0646 \u0646\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062c\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0621 4.3\/5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-yet-another-stars-rating-overall-rating yasr-overall-block\"><!--Yasr Overall Rating Shortcode--><div class='yasr-custom-text-before-overall' id='yasr-custom-text-before-overall'>\u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u062a\u0646\u0627<\/div><div class=\"yasr-overall-rating\"><div class='yasr-rater-stars'\r\n                           id='yasr-overall-rating-rater-ce7a95486d374'\r\n                           data-rating='4.4'\r\n                           data-rater-starsize='24'>\r\n                       <\/div><\/div><!--End Yasr Overall Rating Shortcode--><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u0645\u0644\u062d\u0648\u0638\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0631\u0631<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0646\u064f\u0634\u0631\u062a \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644 \u0645\u0631\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0627\u0645 2021. \u0648\u062a\u0645 \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062b\u0647\u0627 \u0648\u062a\u0646\u0642\u064a\u062d\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0643\u0628\u064a\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0623\u063a\u0633\u0637\u0633 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u0627\u0644\u0628\u062c\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0621 PDF\u060c \u0645\u062e\u0637\u0637 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a\u064a\u060c \u0643\u062a\u0627\u0628 \u0645\u0633\u0645\u0648\u0639 \u0645\u062c\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0648\u0645\u0644\u062e\u0635 \u0643\u062a\u0627\u0628 \u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0645\u0627\u0630\u0627 \u062a\u0639\u0644\u0645\u062a \u0645\u0646 \u0645\u0644\u062e\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062c\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0621\u061f \u0645\u0627 \u0647\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0648\u062c\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0647\u0632\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u0636\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u062f\u064a\u0643\u061f \u0643\u064a\u0641 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646\u0646\u0627 \u062a\u062d\u0633\u064a\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u062e\u0635\u061f \u0642\u0645 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0644\u064a\u0642 \u0623\u062f\u0646\u0627\u0647 \u0623\u0648 \u0642\u0645 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u063a\u0631\u064a\u062f \u0644\u0646\u0627 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/storyshots\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">@storyshots<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0648\u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u063a\u064a\u0636 \u0645\u0646 \u0641\u064a\u0636. \u0644\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0645\u0642 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0635\u064a\u0644 \u0648\u062f\u0639\u0645 \u0646\u0633\u064a\u0645 \u0646\u0642\u0648\u0644\u0627 \u0637\u0627\u0644\u0628\u060c \u0627\u0637\u0644\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0627\u0628 \u0647\u0646\u0627 \u0623\u0648 \u0627\u062d\u0635\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0648\u062a\u064a <a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u0645\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0627\u064b<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0647\u0644 \u0623\u0646\u062a \u062c\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0633\u062a\u0648\u0631\u064a \u0634\u0648\u062a\u0633\u061f<a href=\"https:\/\/go.getstoryshots.com\/free\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.getstoryshots.com\/free\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> \u0642\u0645 \u0628\u062a\u0646\u0632\u064a\u0644 \u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u0646\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062c\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0639\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0635\u0646\u064a\u0641\u0627\u064b<\/a> \u0644\u0644\u0648\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0625\u0635\u062f\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a PDF\/ePub \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0648\u062a\u064a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0631\u0633\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0631\u0633\u0648\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u062e\u0635 \u0648\u0645\u0626\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u0631\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0645\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064b\u0627 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0628 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u064a\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629. \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u064a\u0627\u0631 StoryShots \u0645\u0646 \u0642\u0650\u0628\u0644 Apple \u0648Google \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062d\u062f\u0629 \u0648The Guardian \u0648The Economist \u0643\u0623\u062d\u062f \u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0639\u0644\u064a\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u0645\u0644\u062e\u0635\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0628 \u0630\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0644\u0629<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ar\/books\/thinking-fast-and-slow-summary\/\">\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0643\u064a\u0631\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0631\u064a\u0639 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0628\u0637\u064a\u0621<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ar\/books\/Antifragile-summary\/\">\u0645\u0636\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0647\u0634\u0627\u0634\u0629<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ar\/books\/the-intelligent-investor-summary\/\">\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0643\u064a<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ar\/books\/money-master-the-game-summary\/\">\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0625\u062a\u0642\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0639\u0628\u0629<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ar\/books\/predictably-irrational-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"248\">\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0639\u0642\u0644\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ar\/books\/the-snowball-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"4540\">\u0643\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0644\u062c<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ar\/books\/how-not-to-be-wrong-summary\/\">\u0643\u064a\u0641 \u0644\u0627 \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u062e\u0637\u0626\u0627\u064b<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ar\/books\/think-again-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"50321\">\u0641\u0643\u0631 \u0645\u0631\u0629 \u0623\u062e\u0631\u0649<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ar\/books\/outliers-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"402\">\u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0637\u0631\u0641\u0629<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ar\/books\/homo-deus-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"319\">\u0647\u0648\u0645\u0648 \u062f\u064a\u0648\u0633<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ar\/books\/ten-lessons-for-a-post-pandemic-world-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"49231\">\u0639\u0634\u0631\u0629 \u062f\u0631\u0648\u0633 \u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u0645 \u0645\u0627 \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0628\u0627\u0621<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ar\/books\/the-innovators-dilemma-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"228\">\u0645\u0639\u0636\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0628\u062a\u0643\u0631<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-1024x1024.png\" alt=\"The Black Swan book summary, PDF &amp; Infographic\" class=\"wp-image-58892\" style=\"width:290px;height:auto\" title=\"The Black Swan book summary, PDF &amp; Infographic\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-1024x1024.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-768x768.png 768w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-12x12.png 12w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-600x600.png 600w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots.png 1080w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The Black Swan book summary &amp; PDF &amp; Infographic<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0629 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u063a\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u064a\u0646\u0634\u063a\u0644 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0629. \u0647\u0644 \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0643\u062a\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062c\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0621 \u064a\u062c\u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u063a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0631\u0641 \u0643\u062a\u0628\u0643\u061f \u0628\u062f\u0644\u0627\u064b \u0645\u0646 \u0630\u0644\u0643\u060c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0641\u0643\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0626\u064a\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0622\u0646. \u0646\u062d\u0646 \u0646\u062e\u062f\u0634 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0637\u062d \u0647\u0646\u0627. \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0644\u0645 \u064a\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0627\u0628 \u0628\u062d\u0648\u0632\u062a\u0643 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0641\u0639\u0644\u060c \u0627\u0637\u0644\u0628\u0647 \u0645\u0646 \u0647\u0646\u0627 \u0623\u0648 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