{"id":3454,"date":"2022-08-26T14:13:29","date_gmt":"2022-08-26T14:13:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/?page_id=3454"},"modified":"2024-12-23T09:05:06","modified_gmt":"2024-12-23T09:05:06","slug":"the-black-swan-summary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/fr\/books\/the-black-swan-summary\/","title":{"rendered":"Le Cygne Noir R\u00e9sum\u00e9 | Nassim Nicholas Taleb"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">L'impact de l'improbable<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La vie s'active. A\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/kCdCogG\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Le cygne noir<\/em><\/a>\u00a0a pris la poussi\u00e8re sur votre \u00e9tag\u00e8re ? Prenez plut\u00f4t les id\u00e9es cl\u00e9s d\u00e8s maintenant. Nous ne faisons qu'effleurer la surface. Si vous n'avez pas encore le livre, commandez-le <a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/the-black-swan-book\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ici<\/a>\u00a0ou obtenir le\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/kCdCogG\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">livre audio gratuit<\/a>\u00a0sur Amazon pour conna\u00eetre les d\u00e9tails juteux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"200\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/playlist.megaphone.fm?e=PARSIDA7035840384&amp;light=true\" width=\"100%\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Introduction<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Avez-vous d\u00e9j\u00e0 fait un plan global, mais il a quand m\u00eame \u00e9chou\u00e9 ? Vous trouvez-vous dans des situations extr\u00eames, positives ou n\u00e9gatives, et ne parvenez pas \u00e0 faire le meilleur choix ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Eh bien, vous n'\u00eates pas seul. Mieux encore, vous \u00eates en bonne compagnie. M\u00eame les plans \u00e9labor\u00e9s avec des ressources infinies peuvent \u00e9chouer. Les gouvernements ne peuvent pas r\u00e9soudre des probl\u00e8mes tels que le ch\u00f4mage et la guerre. Ils ne peuvent pas non plus saisir les opportunit\u00e9s en r\u00e9partissant mal les ressources publiques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Une meilleure planification vous permettra de tirer parti des opportunit\u00e9s. La pr\u00e9paration vous permettra de r\u00e9duire les pertes en cas de catastrophe. Comment vous pr\u00e9parez-vous aux \u00e9v\u00e9nements inattendus de la vie ? Pouvez-vous am\u00e9liorer le taux de r\u00e9ussite de vos plans ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"><em>Le cygne noir<\/em><\/a> est bas\u00e9 sur le principe que la vie est pleine de surprises. Certaines sont bonnes, d'autres sont catastrophiques. Le livre passe en revue des \u00e9v\u00e9nements tels que l'essor de l'Internet et les guerres d\u00e9vastatrices. Il \u00e9tudie \u00e9galement notre tendance \u00e0 proposer des explications lorsque nous sommes confront\u00e9s \u00e0 des \u00e9v\u00e9nements importants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The book offers insight into the nature of unexpected events. It also looks at typical human reactions. Finally, it provides tips on managing life\u2019s extremes better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u00c0 propos de Nassim Nicholas Taleb<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/nassim-nicholas-taleb\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/nassim-nicholas-taleb\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Nassim Nicholas Taleb<\/a> est un auteur libano-am\u00e9ricain. Il est \u00e9galement statisticien, analyste des risques et ancien trader d'options. <em>Le cygne noir<\/em> est l'un des cinq volumes d'essais philosophiques, <em>Incerto<\/em>. Il a publi\u00e9 <em>Incerto <\/em>entre 2001 et 2018. M. Taleb enseigne l'ing\u00e9nierie du risque \u00e0 la Tandon School of Engineering de l'Universit\u00e9 de New York et est membre de l'Acad\u00e9mie des sciences. <em>Analyse des risques et des d\u00e9cisions <\/em>co-r\u00e9dacteur de la revue. En outre, ce remarquable statisticien est l'auteur de plus d'une douzaine de livres inspirants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>L'approche de Taleb en mati\u00e8re de gestion des risques lui a permis de tirer profit des crises financi\u00e8res contemporaines. Il pr\u00e9conise une approche des march\u00e9s financiers fond\u00e9e sur les cygnes noirs, qui tient compte des \u00e9v\u00e9nements difficiles \u00e0 pr\u00e9voir dans la prise de d\u00e9cision. Taleb plaide \u00e9galement pour une recherche scientifique d\u00e9centralis\u00e9e et vise \u00e0 combler les lacunes des \u00e9tudes actuelles.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nassim Taleb est l'auteur de quatre autres livres dans les domaines suivants <em>Incerto<\/em>. These books have won many accolades and have gained a global audience. Taleb\u2019s unique style includes a mixed narrative; the reporting is semi-autobiographical and philosophical. In summary, it has led <em>Le cygne noir <\/em>pour remporter plusieurs prix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #1: The Black Swan Events are Unprecedented and Have a Huge Impact. Later, They Are Explained Away as Predictable<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>L'histoire et la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 sautent - les changements incr\u00e9mentaux ne se produisent pas comme nous l'attendons. L'approche scientifique consiste \u00e0 suivre les \u00e9v\u00e9nements en fonction de leur progression. Malheureusement, les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s passent d'une fracture \u00e0 l'autre, et l'explication des \u00e9v\u00e9nements sur la base d'une relation de cause \u00e0 effet est erron\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>People mainly saw white swans for the majority of history. Some societies even believed that the black swans did not exist. A group of explorers first saw a black swan in Western Australia in 1967. The stunning news spread across Europe and the world like wildfire. The tale of the black swan inspired many scholars. Philosophers such as John Stuart Mill used the term \u2018<em>cygne noir<\/em>lorsqu'il s'agit d'\u00e9v\u00e9nements rares et improbables.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Taleb proposes that <strong>the black swan<\/strong> events have the following characteristics:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Ils ne sont pas attendus.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ils ont un impact consid\u00e9rable sur le monde.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les gens donnent plus tard des explications convaincantes sur ce qui s'est pass\u00e9.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Parmi les cygnes noirs notables, citons la Seconde Guerre mondiale et le krach boursier de 1987. Le 11 septembre et la d\u00e9couverte des antibiotiques sont \u00e9galement des cygnes noirs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Lebanese Civil War was a black swan event. Christians and Muslims had lived peacefully for over 1300 years. The Lebanese culture preached tolerance. Schoolchildren respected their neighbors\u2019 cultures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Une guerre religieuse sanglante a mis fin \u00e0 cette civilisation unique. Les \u00e9coliers sont choqu\u00e9s de voir leurs voisins se retourner les uns contre les autres. Les bombes et les balles ont fait voler en \u00e9clats les quartiers r\u00e9sidentiels. Le Liban s'attendait \u00e0 ce que la guerre se termine dans \"quelques jours\". Elle a dur\u00e9 dix-sept ans. Plus tard, des chercheurs ont propos\u00e9 des explications convaincantes sur la cause et la nature de la guerre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Black swan events extend to the expansion of small cults to global religions. Later generations are born thinking of particular beliefs as facts of life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #2 : Nous vivons dans l'Extr\u00e9mistan, un monde in\u00e9galitaire avec des valeurs extr\u00eames impr\u00e9visibles.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Nous vivons dans deux mondes s\u00e9par\u00e9s : <a href=\"https:\/\/people.wou.edu\/~shawd\/mediocristan--extremistan.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">mediocristan et extremistan<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dans le m\u00e9diocre, les choses sont \u00e9gales et similaires. Les humains viennent de ce monde. C'est le monde naturel qui correspond \u00e0 notre intuition. Nous croyons que des aspects tels que notre taille et nos salaires dans les param\u00e8tres conventionnels sont \u00e9gaux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The world is moving to extremistan. In extremistan, outliers have a disproportionate impact. It isn\u2019t easy to wrap our heads around the new information. Consider a group of 50 people. One individual could have more wealth than the other 49 members combined. A single group member could also be much taller than the others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dans le m\u00e9diocrisme, nous nous appuyons sur la tyrannie du collectif. Nous nous concentrons sur l'\u00e9vidence. Nous pr\u00e9disons l'avenir et nous nous y pr\u00e9parons. Dans l'Extr\u00e9mistan, la tyrannie du singulier domine la soci\u00e9t\u00e9. Les accidents et les \u00e9v\u00e9nements invisibles dictent nos vies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La technologie et la connectivit\u00e9 mondiale sont en partie responsables de l'extr\u00e9misme. La presse \u00e0 imprimer, la t\u00e9l\u00e9vision et l'Internet ont acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9 le processus vers un monde extr\u00e9miste.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le monde souffrira de pand\u00e9mies aigu\u00ebs. Des germes singuliers domineront nos vies, malgr\u00e9 les perc\u00e9es scientifiques que nous avons r\u00e9alis\u00e9es. Moins de personnes et d'entreprises contr\u00f4leront plus de richesses. Les in\u00e9galit\u00e9s augmenteront et les modes seront plus marqu\u00e9es.<strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #3: We Overvalue What We Know and are Blind to What We Don\u2019t Know<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2002, Donald Rumsfeld, the US Secretary of Defense, commented on the war in Iraq. He said that there are \u201cknown knowns,\u201d \u201cknown unknowns,\u201d and \u201cunknown unknowns.\u201d The answer amused the press. Rumsfeld added that the things we are unaware of have an immense impact on our lives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The concept of \u201cunknown unknown\u201d is now an extensive field to study. Most media stations ridiculed it. The quote expresses the risks we face when deciding. We have limited understanding. A turkey raised on a farm celebrates the farmers\u2019 generosity. Then Thanksgiving comes. The turkey feels safe because of the absence of evidence that the farmer is cruel.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"b18404d52d\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+problem+with+experts+is+that+they+do+not+know+what+they+do+not+know.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb+%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ffr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cThe problem with experts is that they do not know what they do not know.\u201d \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb #theblackswan<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+problem+with+experts+is+that+they+do+not+know+what+they+do+not+know.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb+%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ffr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Cliquez sur le lien suivant<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p>L'absence de preuve n'est pas une preuve d'absence. Des \u00e9v\u00e9nements tels que les attaques du 11 septembre, le crash immobilier et la guerre du Liban ont fait beaucoup de mal aux communaut\u00e9s. Ces \u00e9v\u00e9nements se sont produits malgr\u00e9 l'absence de pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Les preuves silencieuses existent. Nous ne pouvons souvent pas les voir \u00e0 cause de notre obsession pour les observations na\u00efves du pass\u00e9. Notre parti pris va jusqu'\u00e0 d\u00e9terrer des preuves unilat\u00e9rales pour soutenir nos croyances. Nous nous concentrons sur les preuves \u00e9videntes et ne pouvons pas \u00e9tudier les questions qui sugg\u00e8rent le contraire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le biais de survivance est notre tendance \u00e0 nous concentrer sur les exemples et les individus qui ont r\u00e9ussi. Il est courant de tirer des le\u00e7ons des mod\u00e8les \u00e0 suivre. Mais qu'en est-il des individus invisibles ? Certaines personnes peuvent ne pas atteindre des niveaux \u00e9lev\u00e9s de r\u00e9ussite. Les personnes qui travaillent dur, font preuve de discipline et de constance peuvent \u00e9galement \u00e9chouer. La plupart des gens ne rendent pas leurs \u00e9checs publics, et les individus prosp\u00e8res \u00e9crivent des biographies \u00e0 succ\u00e8s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nous devrions \u00e9tudier tous les individus qui se sont lanc\u00e9s dans une entreprise particuli\u00e8re. Nous sous-estimons souvent les preuves silencieuses ou les ignorons compl\u00e8tement. Cependant, nous aurions tout \u00e0 gagner \u00e0 surmonter nos pr\u00e9jug\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"b18404d52d\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CWhen+you+develop+your+opinions+on+the+basis+of+weak+evidence%2C+you+will+have+difficulty+interpreting+subsequent+information+that+contradicts+these+opinions%2C+even+if+this+new+information+is+obviously+more+accurate.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ffr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cWhen you develop your opinions on the basis of weak evidence, you will have difficulty interpreting subsequent information that contradicts these opinions, even if this new information is obviously more accurate.\u201d \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CWhen+you+develop+your+opinions+on+the+basis+of+weak+evidence%2C+you+will+have+difficulty+interpreting+subsequent+information+that+contradicts+these+opinions%2C+even+if+this+new+information+is+obviously+more+accurate.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ffr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Cliquez sur le lien suivant<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #4: People Create Stories about Why The Black Swans Happened, Which Covers Up How Unexpected They Were<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Nous sommes prompts \u00e0 proposer des explications de cause \u00e0 effet lorsque des \u00e9v\u00e9nements extr\u00eames se produisent. Notre amour des histoires nous pousse \u00e0 simplifier les \u00e9v\u00e9nements au d\u00e9triment des d\u00e9tails essentiels. Le sophisme narratif cr\u00e9e dans notre esprit un monde parfaitement logique o\u00f9 le destin n'existe pas.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"b18404d52d\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CYou+need+a+story+to+displace+a+story.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ffr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cYou need a story to displace a story.\u201d \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CYou+need+a+story+to+displace+a+story.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ffr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Cliquez sur le lien suivant<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p>Our craving for logical stories pushes us to find causes for everything we see. Our explanations bind the facts together. The major product is an easy-to-remember story, satisfying \u201chistorical truths.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"b18404d52d\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+more+we+try+to+turn+history+into+anything+other+than+an+enumeration+of+accounts+to+be+enjoyed+with+minimal+theorizing%2C+the+more+we+get+into+trouble.+Are+we+so+plagued+with+the+narrative+fallacy%3F%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ffr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cThe more we try to turn history into anything other than an enumeration of accounts to be enjoyed with minimal theorizing, the more we get into trouble. Are we so plagued with the narrative fallacy?\u201d \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+more+we+try+to+turn+history+into+anything+other+than+an+enumeration+of+accounts+to+be+enjoyed+with+minimal+theorizing%2C+the+more+we+get+into+trouble.+Are+we+so+plagued+with+the+narrative+fallacy%3F%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ffr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Cliquez sur le lien suivant<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p>The Black swan events lie beyond the information we have. Yet still, we distort facts. Reducing information into a set of facts affects our reactions to rare events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Souvent, notre approche de la vie se divise en deux grandes cat\u00e9gories. Dans la premi\u00e8re, nous sommes exp\u00e9rientiels ; nous d\u00e9cidons en une fraction de seconde sur la base de notre intuition. Nous d\u00e9veloppons des heuristiques (raccourcis). Elles nous permettent de trouver des solutions rapides lorsque nous sommes confront\u00e9s \u00e0 un \u00e9v\u00e9nement particulier. Ces solutions rapides devraient \u00eatre vertueuses. Mais, ces raccourcis sont pr\u00e9judiciables lorsque nous utilisons des informations erron\u00e9es.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Second, we apply efforts in understanding and responding to various scenarios; \u201cthinking.\u201d The process is often slow, progressive, and logical. Thinking makes fewer mistakes than heuristics. Better still, we can review our decision-making steps to correct specific errors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The first system made us believe that the black swans are non-existent. Thinking could have eliminated the problem. A systematic inquiry into the question would have eliminated biases. Heuristics are often based on emotions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We must overcome the fallacy of creating stories by better understanding current events, and studying matters at a deeper level to learn fundamental drivers. We should also treat the black swans as possibilities and prepare for worst-case scenarios accordingly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #5 : Nous nous inqui\u00e9tons de ce qui s'est pass\u00e9 dans le pass\u00e9 et nous ignorons tout ce qui n'est pas \u00e9vident.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Nous sommes souvent victimes de l'utilisation de mod\u00e8les irr\u00e9alistes pour expliquer les \u00e9v\u00e9nements. Nous ne pouvons pas g\u00e9rer les facteurs de notre environnement imm\u00e9diat. Pire encore, nous formulons nos hypoth\u00e8ses dans des environnements st\u00e9rilis\u00e9s tels que les salles de classe. M\u00eame dans la recherche scientifique, il nous arrive d'accepter des r\u00e9sultats en faisant peu de cas de la m\u00e9thode.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"b18404d52d\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+Black+Swan+asymmetry+allows+you+to+be+confident+about+what+is+wrong%2C+not+about+what+you+believe+is+right.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ffr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cThe Black Swan asymmetry allows you to be confident about what is wrong, not about what you believe is right.\u201d \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+Black+Swan+asymmetry+allows+you+to+be+confident+about+what+is+wrong%2C+not+about+what+you+believe+is+right.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ffr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Cliquez sur le lien suivant<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p>Nous attribuons m\u00eame des probabilit\u00e9s aux \u00e9v\u00e9nements. De plus, nous pr\u00e9voyons suffisamment de ressources pour les g\u00e9rer. Nous basons la pr\u00e9paration sur nos \u00e9valuations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Il est difficile de faire abstraction de nos biais cognitifs. Pourtant, nous devons les surmonter pour mieux g\u00e9rer les myst\u00e8res de la vie. Nous devons explorer les questions \u00e0 une \u00e9chelle plus large. Nous devons accepter les r\u00e9sultats des \u00e9tudes. Nous devons \u00e9viter de rejeter les variables extr\u00eames (valeurs aberrantes) comme des erreurs. Nous avons tout int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e0 comprendre les causes et la nature des valeurs aberrantes dans l'extr\u00e9mistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"b18404d52d\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CMistaking+a+naive+observation+of+the+past+as+something+definitive+or+representative+of+the+future+is+the+one+and+only+cause+of+our+inability+to+understand+The+Black+Swan.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ffr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cMistaking a naive observation of the past as something definitive or representative of the future is the one and only cause of our inability to understand The Black Swan.\u201d \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CMistaking+a+naive+observation+of+the+past+as+something+definitive+or+representative+of+the+future+is+the+one+and+only+cause+of+our+inability+to+understand+The+Black+Swan.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ffr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Cliquez sur le lien suivant<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #6 : Nous sommes de plus en plus intelligents, mais notre exc\u00e8s de confiance cro\u00eet plus vite.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Les humains font des pr\u00e9dictions tout le temps. Malheureusement,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/pascalemmanuelgobry\/2012\/07\/26\/how-to-predict-the-future-in-3-simple-steps\/?sh=41c274da1c5d\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"> nous ne pouvons pas faire de pr\u00e9dictions pr\u00e9cises<\/a>. Notre esprit ne peut pas comprendre les \u00e9v\u00e9nements quotidiens et g\u00e9rer les tendances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Les technologies modernes telles qu'Internet, et la blockchain, fa\u00e7onnent nos vies. Nous nous appuyons \u00e9galement sur les perc\u00e9es m\u00e9dicales et la science pour pr\u00e9dire l'avenir. Nous oublions \u00e0 quel point ces avanc\u00e9es \u00e9taient inattendues et nous nous sentons trop confiants dans les pr\u00e9dictions. Mais, nous basons les estimations sur le m\u00eame biais. Nous nous accrochons \u00e0 nos histoires et faisons des pr\u00e9dictions bas\u00e9es sur les faits disponibles. Nos estimations ne peuvent \u00eatre correctes que si nos informations ne sont pas trop r\u00e9duites.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"b18404d52d\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9C...we+are+demonstrably+arrogant+about+what+we+think+we+know.+We+certainly+know+a+lot%2C+but+we+have+a+built-in+tendency+to+think+that+we+know+a+little+bit+more+than+we+actually+do%2C+enough+of+that+little+bit+to+occasionally+get+into+serious+trouble.%E2%80%9C+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ffr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201c\u2026we are demonstrably arrogant about what we think we know. We certainly know a lot, but we have a built-in tendency to think that we know a little bit more than we actually do, enough of that little bit to occasionally get into serious trouble.\u201c \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9C...we+are+demonstrably+arrogant+about+what+we+think+we+know.+We+certainly+know+a+lot%2C+but+we+have+a+built-in+tendency+to+think+that+we+know+a+little+bit+more+than+we+actually+do%2C+enough+of+that+little+bit+to+occasionally+get+into+serious+trouble.%E2%80%9C+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ffr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Cliquez sur le lien suivant<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p>Nous disposons d\u00e9sormais d'une analyse avanc\u00e9e des donn\u00e9es. Nous pouvons m\u00eame utiliser des simulations pour pr\u00e9dire l'avenir avec une plus grande pr\u00e9cision. C'est vrai, nous sommes plus intelligents. Nous avons d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 des outils d'analyse des risques plus sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9s que nos pr\u00e9d\u00e9cesseurs. Sommes-nous mieux arm\u00e9s pour faire des pr\u00e9dictions, ou sommes-nous trop confiants dans nos capacit\u00e9s ?<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"b18404d52d\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+payoff+of+a+human+venture+is%2C+in+general%2C+inversely+proportional+to+what+it+is+expected+to+be.%E2%80%9C+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ffr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cThe payoff of a human venture is, in general, inversely proportional to what it is expected to be.\u201c \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+payoff+of+a+human+venture+is%2C+in+general%2C+inversely+proportional+to+what+it+is+expected+to+be.%E2%80%9C+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ffr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Cliquez sur le lien suivant<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p>En conclusion, nous sommes mieux lotis lorsque nous comprenons les \u00e9v\u00e9nements en les \u00e9tudiant avec un esprit ouvert. Nous devrions remplacer les pr\u00e9visions par la conscience de soi. Notre r\u00e9ussite dans la vie ne repose pas sur notre capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 pr\u00e9dire l'avenir. Elle repose sur notre capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 r\u00e9agir aux \u00e9v\u00e9nements quotidiens et \u00e0 les g\u00e9rer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #7 : Savoir comment g\u00e9rer les probl\u00e8mes est plus important que la capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 les anticiper<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Les grandes choses sont souvent inattendues. L'Am\u00e9rique est peut-\u00eatre l'une des plus grandes nations du monde actuel. Pourtant, c'\u00e9tait une d\u00e9couverte accidentelle. Les explorateurs cherchaient une route vers l'Inde.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Les \u00c9tats-Unis ont depuis cess\u00e9 d'\u00eatre un simple territoire d'outre-mer. Ils abritent d\u00e9sormais des entreprises g\u00e9antes telles que Google, Amazon et Microsoft. L'id\u00e9e ma\u00eetresse ici est que la prosp\u00e9rit\u00e9 et le succ\u00e8s peuvent survenir m\u00eame sans une capacit\u00e9 de pr\u00e9vision exceptionnelle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Puisqu'il est impossible d'\u00e9chapper aux \u00e9v\u00e9nements extr\u00eames, le g\u00e9nie consiste \u00e0 les g\u00e9rer. Nous devrions comprendre comment nous pr\u00e9parer au mieux aux fortunes et aux crises inattendues, plut\u00f4t que d'essayer de les pr\u00e9voir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #8 : Que faire quand on ne peut pas pr\u00e9voir les changements ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Notre arrogance cognitive est notre propre ennemi principal. Nous devons faire des plans et bien les ex\u00e9cuter. Des \u00e9v\u00e9nements plus petits, comme aller au pique-nique, sont plus b\u00e9n\u00e9fiques. Nous ne devons pas nous inqui\u00e9ter des pr\u00e9dictions nuisibles \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"b18404d52d\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CMissing+a+train+is+only+painful+if+you+run+after+it.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ffr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cMissing a train is only painful if you run after it.\u201d \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CMissing+a+train+is+only+painful+if+you+run+after+it.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ffr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Cliquez sur le lien suivant<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p>Souvent, nous ne pouvons pas pr\u00e9voir les \u00e9v\u00e9nements extr\u00eames. Ils n'ont pas de relation de cause \u00e0 effet. Nous n'avons pas besoin de grandes bases de donn\u00e9es pour profiter des cygnes noirs positifs et r\u00e9duire les pertes avec les n\u00e9gatifs.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"b18404d52d\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CWhat+is+surprising+is+not+our+magnitude+of+forecast+errors%2C+but+our+absence+of+awareness+of+it.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ffr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cWhat is surprising is not our magnitude of forecast errors, but our absence of awareness of it.\u201d \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CWhat+is+surprising+is+not+our+magnitude+of+forecast+errors%2C+but+our+absence+of+awareness+of+it.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ffr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Cliquez sur le lien suivant<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p>Se placer dans les bonnes situations vous permettra de g\u00e9rer les myst\u00e8res de la vie. Restez l\u00e0 o\u00f9 il y a plus de retours potentiels que de pertes. Par exemple, lorsque vous investissez votre argent, il est pr\u00e9f\u00e9rable d'allouer jusqu'\u00e0 90% \u00e0 des entreprises s\u00fbres. Allouer 10% \u00e0 des entreprises sp\u00e9culatives est prudent \u00e0 deux \u00e9gards. Premi\u00e8rement, vous profitez d'\u00e9v\u00e9nements positifs de type cygne noir. Deuxi\u00e8mement, vous avez toujours 90% de votre investissement s\u00e9curis\u00e9 en cas de cygne noir n\u00e9gatif.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #9 : Nous sommes mieux lotis lorsque nous retardons la gratification. \u00catre un chasseur de cygnes noirs peut \u00eatre une entreprise risqu\u00e9e.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Our perception of risk is often aimed at giving us sustainable rewards. For instance, in business, we prefer an investment with a steady return and hope for no adverse events. We deem such enterprises as \u201csuccessful.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hunting the black swan is \u201crisky.\u201d The hunter focuses on large payoffs from the back swan \u2013 either positive or negative. Meanwhile, the hunter continues to bleed. We make losses by not changing our position in times of downturn, where we should focus on making an average market reward. Observers refer to such individuals and enterprises as \u201cunsuccessful.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La chasse au cygne noir exige autant d'endurance personnelle que de prouesses intellectuelles.<a href=\"https:\/\/positivepsychology.com\/delayed-gratification-exercises-worksheets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"> Beaucoup d'attente est n\u00e9cessaire<\/a>, and the waiting duration is unknown. For instance, with scalable professions, we can get a huge payoff. We can also make devastating losses at any point by taking a \u201crisky\u201d position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Un chasseur de cygne noir est ouvert d'esprit et toujours pr\u00eat. Il s'attend \u00e0 des \u00e9v\u00e9nements positifs et n\u00e9gatifs extr\u00eames. Pour eux, les \u00e9v\u00e9nements extr\u00eames sont l'aboutissement de leur gratification diff\u00e9r\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Black Swan summary and review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>In summary, a black swan is an improbable event with three key characteristics.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Black Swan is unexpected<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It has a massive impact<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>We offer convincing explanations on how it occurred in an attempt to summarize the storyline<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Notable black swan events include the great success of Google, the 9\/11 terrorist attacks, and the market crash of 1987. Black swan events dominate our lives. We face them both on a societal level, such as the rise of religions and in our personal lives, such as the death of loved ones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Comment se fait-il que nous ne reconnaissions pas les cygnes noirs avant qu'ils ne se produisent ? Une partie de la r\u00e9ponse est que nous sommes des \u00eatres humains. Nous nous concentrons sur l'apprentissage des sp\u00e9cificit\u00e9s au lieu de nous focaliser sur les \u00e9v\u00e9nements individuels. Souvent, nous nous mutilons en nous concentrant sur ce que nous savons. Nous avons de nombreux pr\u00e9jug\u00e9s que nous ignorons souvent. Ainsi, nous sous-estimons les opportunit\u00e9s et les risques. Nous avons tendance \u00e0 simplifier les \u00e9v\u00e9nements, \u00e0 les cat\u00e9goriser et \u00e0 proposer des explications. Parfois, nous excluons certains \u00e9v\u00e9nements comme \u00e9tant impossibles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Il est risqu\u00e9 de se concentrer sur des \u00e9v\u00e9nements sans cons\u00e9quence et sans int\u00e9r\u00eat. Nous ne comprenons pas tout. Les \u00e9v\u00e9nements significatifs ne cessent de nous surprendre et de contrarier nos efforts pour atteindre des objectifs sp\u00e9cifiques. Il existe des astuces simples pour faire face aux \u00e9v\u00e9nements du cygne noir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pour \u00e9viter les surprises dans la vie, pr\u00e9parez-vous au pire des sc\u00e9narios. Positionnez-vous dans un secteur o\u00f9 les rendements sont \u00e9lev\u00e9s. Concentrez-vous \u00e9galement sur la compr\u00e9hension des tendances plut\u00f4t que sur la pr\u00e9vision des \u00e9v\u00e9nements. Tirez parti des opportunit\u00e9s, car des cygnes noirs positifs pourraient transformer votre vie. Le scepticisme est essentiel - \u00e9vitez les id\u00e9es qui ne laissent pas de place aux variables inconnues. Mettez-vous dans des situations o\u00f9 les gains sont sup\u00e9rieurs aux risques potentiels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Le cygne noir<\/a> <\/em>is startling, elegant, and universal in its application. The book contains irreverence, wit, and thrilling reviews of daily events. The book is one of many Nassim Taleb masterpieces. It aims at unwrapping \u2013 at least partly \u2013 some of life\u2019s mysteries. What is better than a set of simple rules to enable you to cope with extremes in life?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Black Swan summary rating<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Nous attribuons au film Le cygne noir une note de 4.3\/5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-yet-another-stars-rating-overall-rating yasr-overall-block\"><!--Yasr Overall Rating Shortcode--><div class='yasr-custom-text-before-overall' id='yasr-custom-text-before-overall'>Notre note<\/div><div class=\"yasr-overall-rating\"><div class='yasr-rater-stars'\r\n                           id='yasr-overall-rating-rater-05aa981f0c26e'\r\n                           data-rating='4.4'\r\n                           data-rater-starsize='24'>\r\n                       <\/div><\/div><!--End Yasr Overall Rating Shortcode--><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Note de l'\u00e9diteur<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Cet article a \u00e9t\u00e9 publi\u00e9 pour la premi\u00e8re fois en 2021. Il a \u00e9t\u00e9 mis \u00e0 jour et r\u00e9vis\u00e9 de mani\u00e8re substantielle en ao\u00fbt 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le cygne noir PDF, infographie, livre audio gratuit et r\u00e9sum\u00e9 anim\u00e9 du livre<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Qu'avez-vous appris du r\u00e9sum\u00e9 de The Black Swan ? Quel a \u00e9t\u00e9 votre coup de c\u0153ur ? Comment pouvons-nous am\u00e9liorer ce r\u00e9sum\u00e9 ? Commentez ci-dessous ou envoyez-nous un tweet <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/storyshots\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">@storyshots<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>C'\u00e9tait la partie \u00e9merg\u00e9e de l'iceberg. Pour plonger dans les d\u00e9tails et soutenir Nassim Nicholas Taleb, commandez le livre ici ou procurez-vous le livre audio. <a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">gratuitement<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nouveau sur StoryShots ?<a href=\"https:\/\/go.getstoryshots.com\/free\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.getstoryshots.com\/free\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> T\u00e9l\u00e9chargez notre application gratuite la mieux class\u00e9e<\/a> to access the PDF\/ePub, audiobook, infographic and animated versions of this summary and hundreds of other bestselling nonfiction books. StoryShots has been featured by Apple, Google, the UN, The Guardian and The Economist as one of the world\u2019s best learning apps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">R\u00e9sum\u00e9s de livres connexes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/fr\/books\/thinking-fast-and-slow-summary\/\">La pens\u00e9e, rapide et lente<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/fr\/books\/Antifragile-summary\/\">Antifragile<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/fr\/books\/the-intelligent-investor-summary\/\">L'investisseur intelligent<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/fr\/books\/money-master-the-game-summary\/\">ARGENT Ma\u00eetriser le jeu<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/fr\/books\/predictably-irrational-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"248\">Predictably Irrational<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/fr\/books\/the-snowball-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"4540\">La boule de neige<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/fr\/books\/how-not-to-be-wrong-summary\/\">Comment ne pas se tromper<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/fr\/books\/think-again-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"50321\">R\u00e9fl\u00e9chissez-y \u00e0 nouveau<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/fr\/books\/outliers-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"402\">Outliers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/fr\/books\/homo-deus-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"319\">Homo Deus<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/fr\/books\/ten-lessons-for-a-post-pandemic-world-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"49231\">Dix le\u00e7ons pour un monde post-pand\u00e9mique<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/fr\/books\/the-innovators-dilemma-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"228\">The Innovator\u2019s Dilemma<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-1024x1024.png\" alt=\"The Black Swan book summary, PDF &amp; Infographic\" class=\"wp-image-58892\" style=\"width:290px;height:auto\" title=\"The Black Swan book summary, PDF &amp; Infographic\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-1024x1024.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-768x768.png 768w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-12x12.png 12w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-600x600.png 600w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots.png 1080w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The Black Swan book summary &amp; PDF &amp; Infographic<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>L'impact du hautement improbable La vie est bien remplie. Le Cygne noir a-t-il pris la poussi\u00e8re sur votre \u00e9tag\u00e8re ? Prenez plut\u00f4t connaissance des id\u00e9es cl\u00e9s d\u00e8s maintenant. Nous ne faisons qu'effleurer la surface. Si vous n'avez pas encore le livre, commandez-le ici ou t\u00e9l\u00e9chargez le livre audio gratuitement sur Amazon pour conna\u00eetre les d\u00e9tails les plus croustillants. Introduction Avez-vous d\u00e9j\u00e0 fait un...<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":92971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_kad_blocks_custom_css":"","_kad_blocks_head_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_body_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_footer_custom_js":"","_kadence_starter_templates_imported_post":false,"_kad_post_transparent":"","_kad_post_title":"","_kad_post_layout":"","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"yasr_overall_rating":4.4,"yasr_post_is_review":"","yasr_auto_insert_disabled":"","yasr_review_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4504,4619,4478,4479,4527],"tags":[4624,5,6,4616,4614,4627,4615],"class_list":["post-3454","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","category-infographic","category-investing","category-leadership","category-new","tag-audiobook","tag-book-review","tag-books","tag-infographic","tag-pdf","tag-review","tag-summary"],"acf":[],"yasr_visitor_votes":{"stars_attributes":{"read_only":false,"span_bottom":false},"number_of_votes":0,"sum_votes":0},"taxonomy_info":{"category":[{"value":4504,"label":"Business &amp; 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