{"id":3454,"date":"2022-08-26T14:13:29","date_gmt":"2022-08-26T14:13:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/?page_id=3454"},"modified":"2024-12-23T09:05:06","modified_gmt":"2024-12-23T09:05:06","slug":"the-black-swan-summary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ko\/books\/the-black-swan-summary\/","title":{"rendered":"\ube14\ub799 \uc2a4\uc644 \uc694\uc57d | \ub098\uc2ec \ub2c8\ucf5c\ub77c\uc2a4 \ud0c8\ub819"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ud76c\ubc15\ud55c \uac83\uc758 \uc601\ud5a5\ub825<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc0b6\uc740 \ubc14\uc058\uac8c \ub3cc\uc544\uac11\ub2c8\ub2e4. Has\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/kCdCogG\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>\ube14\ub799 \uc2a4\uc644<\/em><\/a>\u00a0\ucc45\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uba3c\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc313\uc774\uace0 \uc788\ub098\uc694? \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \ud575\uc2ec \uc544\uc774\ub514\uc5b4\ub97c \ucc3e\uc544\ubcf4\uc138\uc694. \uc5ec\uae30\uc11c\ub294 \uc2dc\uc791\uc5d0 \ubd88\uacfc\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc544\uc9c1 \ucc45\uc744 \uac00\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4\uba74 \uc8fc\ubb38\ud558\uc138\uc694. <a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/the-black-swan-book\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\u00a0\ub610\ub294\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/kCdCogG\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\ubb34\ub8cc \uc624\ub514\uc624\ubd81<\/a>\u00a0\uc5d0\uc11c \uc790\uc138\ud55c \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc744 \uc54c\uc544\ubcf4\uc138\uc694.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"200\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/playlist.megaphone.fm?e=PARSIDA7035840384&amp;light=true\" width=\"100%\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\uc18c\uac1c<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc885\ud569\uc801\uc778 \uacc4\ud68d\uc744 \uc138\uc6e0\uc9c0\ub9cc \uacb0\uad6d \uc2e4\ud328\ud55c \uc801\uc774 \uc788\ub098\uc694? \uadf9\ub2e8\uc801\uc778 \uae0d\uc815\uc801 \ub610\ub294 \ubd80\uc815\uc801 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0 \ucc98\ud574 \ucd5c\uc120\uc758 \uc120\ud0dd\uc744 \ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud55c \uc801\uc774 \uc788\ub098\uc694?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc5ec\ub7ec\ubd84\uc740 \ud63c\uc790\uac00 \uc544\ub2d9\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub354 \uc88b\uc740 \uc810\uc740 \uc88b\uc740 \ub3d9\ub8cc\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubb34\ud55c\ud55c \uc790\uc6d0\uc73c\ub85c \ub9cc\ub4e0 \uacc4\ud68d\ub3c4 \uc2e4\ud328\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc815\ubd80\ub294 \uc2e4\uc5c5\uc774\ub098 \uc804\uc7c1\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \ubb38\uc81c\ub97c \ud574\uacb0\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uacf5\uacf5 \uc790\uc6d0\uc744 \uc798\ubabb \ud560\ub2f9\ud558\uc5ec \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ud3ec\ucc29\ud560 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc5c6\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uacc4\ud68d\uc744 \uc798 \uc138\uc6b0\uba74 \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubbf8\ub9ac \ub300\ube44\ud558\uba74 \uc7ac\ub09c\uc774 \ub2e5\ucce4\uc744 \ub54c \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \uc904\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\uae30\uce58 \uc54a\uc740 \uc0b6\uc758 \uc0ac\uac74\uc5d0 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \ub300\ube44\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub098\uc694? \uacc4\ud68d\uc758 \uc131\uacf5\ub960\uc744 \ub192\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\uc744\uae4c\uc694?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"><em>\ube14\ub799 \uc2a4\uc644<\/em><\/a> \ub294 \uc778\uc0dd\uc740 \ub180\ub77c\uc6c0\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\ub4dd\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc804\uc81c\ub97c \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc5b4\ub5a4 \uac83\uc740 \uc88b\uc740 \uc77c\uc774\uace0 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \uac83\uc740 \uc7ac\uc559\uc801\uc778 \uc77c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ucc45\uc740 \uc778\ud130\ub137\uc758 \ubd80\uc0c1\uacfc \ud30c\uad34\uc801\uc778 \uc804\uc7c1\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc0ac\uac74\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc0ac\uac74\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uba74\ud588\uc744 \ub54c \uc124\uba85\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud558\ub294 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc5f0\uad6c\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc774 \ucc45\uc740 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58 \ubabb\ud55c \uc0ac\uac74\uc758 \ubcf8\uc9c8\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud1b5\ucc30\ub825\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc778 \uc778\uac04 \ubc18\uc751\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubd05\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9\uc73c\ub85c \uc0b6\uc758 \uadf9\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \ub354 \uc798 \uad00\ub9ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ud301\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ub098\uc2ec \ub2c8\ucf5c\ub77c\uc2a4 \ud0c8\ub819 \uc18c\uac1c<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/nassim-nicholas-taleb\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/nassim-nicholas-taleb\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">\ub098\uc2ec \ub2c8\ucf5c\ub77c\uc2a4 \ud0c8\ub819<\/a> \ub808\ubc14\ub17c\uacc4 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc778 \uc791\uac00\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud1b5\uacc4\ud559\uc790, \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ubd84\uc11d\uac00, \uc804\uc9c1 \uc635\uc158 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\uc774\uae30\ub3c4 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. <em>\ube14\ub799 \uc2a4\uc644<\/em> \ub294 5\uad8c\uc73c\ub85c \uad6c\uc131\ub41c \ucca0\ud559 \uc5d0\uc138\uc774 \uc911 \ud558\ub098\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4, <em>Incerto<\/em>. \uadf8\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c\uc744 \uac8c\uc2dc\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. <em>Incerto <\/em>2001\ub144\ubd80\ud130 2018\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud0c8\ub819\uc740 \ub274\uc695\ub300\ud559\uad50 \ud0c4\ub3c8 \uacf5\uacfc\ub300\ud559\uc5d0\uc11c \uc704\ud5d8 \uacf5\ud559\uc744 \uac00\ub974\uce58\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ud604\uc7ac <em>\uc704\ud5d8 \ubc0f \uc758\uc0ac \uacb0\uc815 \ubd84\uc11d <\/em>\uc800\ub110 \uacf5\ub3d9 \ud3b8\uc9d1\uc790\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc774 \ub6f0\uc5b4\ub09c \ud1b5\uacc4\ud559\uc790\ub294 12\uad8c\uc774 \ub118\ub294 \uc601\uac10\uc744 \uc8fc\ub294 \ucc45\uc744 \uc800\uc220\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud0c8\ub819\uc740 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uad00\ub9ac\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc811\uadfc \ubc29\uc2dd\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ud604\ub300 \uae08\uc735 \uc704\uae30\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\uc775\uc744 \uc5bb\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \uc758\uc0ac \uacb0\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c \uc608\uce21\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b4 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\uc5d0 \ub300\uc751\ud558\ub294 \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ube14\ub799\uc2a4\uc644 \uc811\uadfc\ubc95\uc744 \uc639\ud638\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud0c8\ub819\uc740 \ub610\ud55c \ud0c8\uc911\uc559\ud654\ub41c \uacfc\ud559 \uc5f0\uad6c\ub97c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud558\uba70 \ud604\uc7ac \uc5f0\uad6c\uc758 \uaca9\ucc28\ub97c \uadf9\ubcf5\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ub098\uc2ec \ud0c8\ub819\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c \ub124 \uad8c\uc758 \ucc45\uc744 \uc800\uc220\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. <em>Incerto<\/em>. These books have won many accolades and have gained a global audience. Taleb\u2019s unique style includes a mixed narrative; the reporting is semi-autobiographical and philosophical. In summary, it has led <em>\ube14\ub799 \uc2a4\uc644 <\/em>\uc5ec\ub7ec \uc0c1\uc744 \uc218\uc0c1\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #1: The Black Swan Events are Unprecedented and Have a Huge Impact. Later, They Are Explained Away as Predictable<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc5ed\uc0ac\uc640 \uc0ac\ud68c\uc758 \uc810\uc9c4\uc801 \ubcc0\ud654\ub294 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \ub300\ub85c \uc77c\uc5b4\ub098\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uacfc\ud559\uc801 \uc811\uadfc \ubc29\uc2dd\uc740 \uc9c4\ud589\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc0ac\uac74\uc744 \ucd94\uc801\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc548\ud0c0\uae5d\uac8c\ub3c4 \uc0ac\ud68c\ub294 \ub2e8\uc808\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2e8\uc808\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9\ud558\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc778\uacfc\uad00\uacc4\uc5d0 \uadfc\uac70\ud558\uc5ec \uc0ac\uac74\uc744 \uc124\uba85\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uacb0\ud568\uc774 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">People mainly saw white swans for the majority of history. Some societies even believed that the black swans did not exist. A group of explorers first saw a black swan in Western Australia in 1967. The stunning news spread across Europe and the world like wildfire. The tale of the black swan inspired many scholars. Philosophers such as John Stuart Mill used the term \u2018<em>\ube14\ub799 \uc2a4\uc644<\/em>' \ub77c\ub294 \ubb38\uad6c\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Taleb proposes that <strong>the black swan<\/strong> events have the following characteristics:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\uc774\ub4e4\uc740 \uc804 \uc138\uacc4\uc5d0 \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud55c \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce69\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc740 \ub098\uc911\uc5d0 \ubb34\uc2a8 \uc77c\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\ub294\uc9c0 \uc124\ub4dd\ub825 \uc788\uac8c \uc124\uba85\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc8fc\ubaa9\ud560 \ub9cc\ud55c \ube14\ub799\uc2a4\uc644 \uc0ac\uac74\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc81c2\ucc28 \uc138\uacc4\ub300\uc804\uacfc 1987\ub144 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud3ed\ub77d\uc774 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 9\/11 \ud14c\ub7ec\uc640 \ud56d\uc0dd\uc81c \ubc1c\uacac\ub3c4 \ube14\ub799 \uc2a4\uc644 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ub808\ubc14\ub17c \ub0b4\uc804\uc740 \ube14\ub799 \uc2a4\uc644 \uc0ac\uac74\uc774\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uae30\ub3c5\uad50\uc778\uacfc \ubb34\uc2ac\ub9bc\uc740 1300\ub144 \uc774\uc0c1 \ud3c9\ud654\ub86d\uac8c \uc0b4\uc544\uc654\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub808\ubc14\ub17c \ubb38\ud654\ub294 \uad00\uc6a9\uc744 \uc124\ud30c\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud559\uc0dd\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774\uc6c3\uc758 \ubb38\ud654\ub97c \uc874\uc911\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud53c\ube44\ub9b0\ub0b4 \ub098\ub294 \uc885\uad50 \uc804\uc7c1\uc774 \ub3c5\ud2b9\ud55c \ubb38\uba85\uc744 \uc885\uc2dd\uc2dc\ucf30\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud559\uc0dd\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774\uc6c3\uc774 \uc11c\ub85c\uc5d0\uac8c \ub4f1\uc744 \ub3cc\ub9ac\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc744 \ucda9\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud729\uc2f8\uc778 \ucc44 \uc9c0\ucf1c\ubcf4\uc558\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud3ed\ud0c4\uacfc \ucd1d\uc54c\uc774 \uc8fc\uac70 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc744 \uc0b0\uc0b0\uc870\uac01 \ub0c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub808\ubc14\ub17c\uc740 \uc804\uc7c1\uc774 \"\uba70\uce60 \uc548\uc5d0\" \ub05d\ub0a0 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc804\uc7c1\uc740 17\ub144\uc774\ub098 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub098\uc911\uc5d0 \ud559\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uc804\uc7c1\uc758 \uc6d0\uc778\uacfc \ubcf8\uc9c8\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc124\ub4dd\ub825 \uc788\ub294 \uc124\uba85\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Black swan events extend to the expansion of small cults to global religions. Later generations are born thinking of particular beliefs as facts of life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\uc2a4\ud1a0\ub9ac\uc0f7 #2: \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc608\uce21\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\ub294 \uadf9\ub2e8\uc801 \uc774\uc0c1\uac12\uc774 \uc874\uc7ac\ud558\ub294 \ubd88\ud3c9\ub4f1\ud55c \uc138\uc0c1, \uc775\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud0c4\uc5d0 \uc0b4\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ub450 \uac1c\uc758 \ubcc4\uac1c\uc758 \uc138\uacc4\uc5d0 \uc0b4\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4: <a href=\"https:\/\/people.wou.edu\/~shawd\/mediocristan--extremistan.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">\uba54\ub514\uc624\ud06c\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud0c4\uacfc \uadf9\ub2e8\uc8fc\uc758<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc911\ub3c4\uc8fc\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uac83\uc774 \ud3c9\ub4f1\ud558\uace0 \ube44\uc2b7\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc778\uac04\uc740 \uc774 \uc138\uc0c1\uc5d0\uc11c \uc654\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \uc9c1\uad00\uacfc \uc77c\uce58\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc790\uc5f0 \uc138\uacc4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uae30\uc874\uc758 \ub9e4\uac1c\ubcc0\uc218\uc5d0\uc11c \ud0a4\uc640 \uc5f0\ubd09\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uce21\uba74\uc774 \ub3d9\ub4f1\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubbff\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc138\uacc4\ub294 \uadf9\ub2e8\uc8fc\uc758\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf9\ub2e8\uc8fc\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc774\uc0c1\uac12\uc774 \ubd88\uade0\ud615\uc801\uc778 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce69\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc815\ubcf4\ub97c \ubc1b\uc544\ub4e4\uc774\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc27d\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 50\uba85\uc73c\ub85c \uad6c\uc131\ub41c \uadf8\ub8f9\uc744 \uc0dd\uac01\ud574 \ubd05\uc2dc\ub2e4. \ud55c \uac1c\uc778\uc774 \ub2e4\ub978 49\uba85\uc758 \uad6c\uc131\uc6d0\uc744 \ud569\uce5c \uac83\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \ub9ce\uc740 \uc7ac\uc0b0\uc744 \uac00\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud55c \uadf8\ub8f9 \uad6c\uc131\uc6d0\uc758 \ud0a4\uac00 \ub2e4\ub978 \uad6c\uc131\uc6d0\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud6e8\uc52c \ud074 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uba54\ub514\uc624\ud06c\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud0c4\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc9d1\ub2e8\uc758 \ud3ed\uc555\uc5d0 \uc758\uc874\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uba85\ubc31\ud55c \uac83\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubbf8\ub798\ub97c \uc608\uce21\ud558\uace0 \uc774\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf9\ub2e8\uc8fc\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc18c\uc218\uc758 \ud3ed\uc815\uc774 \uc0ac\ud68c\ub97c \uc9c0\ubc30\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc0ac\uace0\uc640 \ubcf4\uc774\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uc0ac\uac74\uc774 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \uc0b6\uc744 \uc88c\uc6b0\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uae30\uc220\uacfc \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc5f0\uacb0\uc131\uc740 \ubd80\ubd84\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uadf9\ub2e8\uc8fc\uc758\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ucc45\uc784\uc774 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc778\uc1c4\uae30, \ud154\ub808\ube44\uc804, \uc778\ud130\ub137\uc774 \uadf9\ub2e8\uc8fc\uc758 \uc138\uc0c1\uc774 \ub418\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc744 \uac00\uc18d\ud654\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc138\uacc4\ub294 \uae09\uc131 \ud32c\ub370\ubbf9\uc744 \uacaa\uc744 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 \uc774\ub8e9\ud55c \uacfc\ud559\uc801 \ud601\uc2e0\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \ud2b9\uc815 \uc138\uade0\uc774 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \uc0b6\uc744 \uc9c0\ubc30\ud558\uac8c \ub420 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc18c\uc218\uc758 \uc0ac\ub78c\uacfc \uae30\uc5c5\uc774 \ub354 \ub9ce\uc740 \ubd80\ub97c \ud1b5\uc81c\ud558\uac8c \ub420 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubd88\ud3c9\ub4f1\uc774 \uc2ec\ud654\ub418\uace0 \uc720\ud589\uc774 \ub354 \uc2ec\ud574\uc9c8 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\uc2a4\ud1a0\ub9ac\uc0f7 #3: \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 \uc544\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uacfc\ub300\ud3c9\uac00\ud558\uace0 \ubaa8\ub974\ub294 \uac83\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \ub9f9\ubaa9\uc801\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2002\ub144 \ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ubc29\ubd80 \uc7a5\uad00 \ub3c4\ub110\ub4dc \ub7fc\uc2a4\ud3a0\ub4dc\ub294 \uc774\ub77c\ud06c \uc804\uc7c1\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \"\uc54c\ub824\uc9c4 \uc0ac\uc2e4\", \"\uc54c\ub824\uc9c4 \ubbf8\uc9c0\uc758 \uc0ac\uc2e4\", \"\uc54c\ub824\uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \ubbf8\uc9c0\uc758 \uc0ac\uc2e4\"\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ub2f5\ubcc0\uc740 \uc5b8\ub860\uc744 \uc990\uac81\uac8c \ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub7fc\uc988\ud3a0\ub4dc\ub294 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 \uc54c\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\ub294 \uac83\ub4e4\uc774 \uc6b0\ub9ac \uc0b6\uc5d0 \uc5c4\uccad\ub09c \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce5c\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">'\ubbf8\uc9c0\uc758 \ubbf8\ud655\uc778'\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uac1c\ub150\uc740 \uc774\uc81c \uad11\ubc94\uc704\ud55c \uc5f0\uad6c \ubd84\uc57c\uac00 \ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc758 \ubbf8\ub514\uc5b4 \ubc29\uc1a1\uad6d\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc774\ub97c \uc870\ub871\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc778\uc6a9\ubb38\uc740 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 \uacb0\uc815\ud560 \ub54c \uc9c1\uba74\ud558\ub294 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ud45c\ud604\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc774\ud574\uc5d0 \ud55c\uacc4\uac00 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub18d\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc790\ub780 \uce60\uba74\uc870\ub294 \ub18d\ubd80\ub4e4\uc758 \uad00\ub300\ud568\uc744 \uae30\ub150\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ucd94\uc218\uac10\uc0ac\uc808\uc774 \ub2e4\uac00\uc635\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uce60\uba74\uc870\ub294 \ub18d\ubd80\uac00 \uc794\uc778\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc99d\uac70\uac00 \uc5c6\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc548\uc804\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ub290\ub08d\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"5c88e5d652\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+problem+with+experts+is+that+they+do+not+know+what+they+do+not+know.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb+%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fko%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\"\uc804\ubb38\uac00\uc758 \ubb38\uc81c\ub294 \uc790\uc2e0\uc774 \ubaa8\ub974\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \ubaa8\ub978\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\" - \ub098\uc2ec \ub2c8\ucf5c\ub77c\uc2a4 \ud0c8\ub819 1TP5\ub354\ube14\ub799\uc2a4\uc644<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+problem+with+experts+is+that+they+do+not+know+what+they+do+not+know.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb+%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fko%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>\ud2b8\uc717\ud558\ub824\uba74 \ud074\ub9ad<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc99d\uac70\uac00 \uc5c6\ub2e4\uace0 \ud574\uc11c \uc99d\uac70\uac00 \uc5c6\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc544\ub2d9\ub2c8\ub2e4. 9\/11 \ud14c\ub7ec, \uc8fc\ud0dd \uac00\uaca9 \ud3ed\ub77d, \ub808\ubc14\ub17c \uc804\uc7c1\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc0ac\uac74\uc740 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc0ac\ud68c\uc5d0 \ud070 \ud53c\ud574\ub97c \uc785\ud614\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc0ac\uac74\ub4e4\uc740 \uc120\ub840\uac00 \uc5c6\uc5c8\uc74c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uce68\ubb35\uc758 \uc99d\uac70\ub294 \uc874\uc7ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uacfc\uac70\uc758 \uc21c\uc9c4\ud55c \uad00\ucc30\uc5d0 \uc9d1\ucc29\ud558\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc885\uc885 \uadf8\uac83\uc744 \ubcf4\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \ud3b8\uacac\uc740 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \ubbff\uc74c\uc744 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud558\ub294 \uc77c\ubc29\uc801\uc778 \uc99d\uac70\ub97c \ud30c\ud5e4\uce58\ub294 \ub370\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud655\uc7a5\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uba85\ubc31\ud55c \uc99d\uac70\uc5d0\ub9cc \uc9d1\uc911\ud558\uace0 \uadf8\ub807\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\ub294 \ubb38\uc81c\ub294 \uc5f0\uad6c\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc0dd\uc874 \ud3b8\ud5a5\uc740 \uc131\uacf5\uc801\uc778 \uc0ac\ub840\uc640 \uac1c\uc778\uc5d0\uac8c \uc9d1\uc911\ud558\ub294 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub864\ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uad50\ud6c8\uc744 \uc5bb\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubcf4\uc774\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uac1c\uc778\uc740 \uc5b4\ub5a8\uae4c\uc694? \uc5b4\ub5a4 \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc740 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc758 \uc131\uacf5\uc744 \uac70\ub450\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud560 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub178\ub825\uacfc \uc808\uc81c, \uc77c\uad00\uc131\uc744 \uac16\ucd98 \uac1c\uc778\ub3c4 \uc2e4\ud328\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc758 \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc740 \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \uc2e4\ud328\ub97c \uacf5\uac1c\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\uba70, \uc131\uacf5\ud55c \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc740 \ubca0\uc2a4\ud2b8\uc140\ub7ec \uc804\uae30\ub97c \uc4f0\uae30\ub3c4 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ud2b9\uc815 \uae30\uc5c5\uc5d0 \ud22c\uc790\ud55c \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uac1c\uc778\uc744 \uc5f0\uad6c\ud574\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc885\uc885 \uce68\ubb35\uc758 \uc99d\uac70\ub97c \uacfc\uc18c\ud3c9\uac00\ud558\uac70\ub098 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \ubb34\uc2dc\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \ud3b8\uacac\uc744 \uadf9\ubcf5\ud558\uba74 \ub354 \ub098\uc740 \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \uc5bb\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"5c88e5d652\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CWhen+you+develop+your+opinions+on+the+basis+of+weak+evidence%2C+you+will+have+difficulty+interpreting+subsequent+information+that+contradicts+these+opinions%2C+even+if+this+new+information+is+obviously+more+accurate.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fko%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\"\uc57d\ud55c \uc99d\uac70\uc5d0 \uadfc\uac70\ud558\uc5ec \uc758\uacac\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud558\uba74 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc815\ubcf4\uac00 \ubd84\uba85\ud788 \ub354 \uc815\ud655\ud558\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc758\uacac\uacfc \ubaa8\uc21c\ub418\ub294 \ud6c4\uc18d \uc815\ubcf4\ub97c \ud574\uc11d\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6c0\uc744 \uacaa\uac8c \ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.\" - \ub098\uc2ec \ub2c8\ucf5c\ub77c\uc2a4 \ud0c8\ub819&nbsp;<span>1TP5\ub354\ube14\ub799\uc2a4\uc644<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CWhen+you+develop+your+opinions+on+the+basis+of+weak+evidence%2C+you+will+have+difficulty+interpreting+subsequent+information+that+contradicts+these+opinions%2C+even+if+this+new+information+is+obviously+more+accurate.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fko%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>\ud2b8\uc717\ud558\ub824\uba74 \ud074\ub9ad<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #4: People Create Stories about Why The Black Swans Happened, Which Covers Up How Unexpected They Were<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uadf9\ub2e8\uc801\uc778 \uc0ac\uac74\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\uba74 \ud2b8\uc704\ud130\ub294 \uc2e0\uc18d\ud558\uac8c \uc778\uacfc\uad00\uacc4\ub97c \uc124\uba85\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\uc57c\uae30\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \uc0ac\ub791\uc740 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc138\ubd80 \uc0ac\ud56d\uc744 \ud76c\uc0dd\ud558\uba74\uc11c\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc0ac\uac74\uc744 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud654\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub0b4\ub7ec\ud2f0\ube0c \uc624\ub958\ub294 \uc6b4\uba85\uc774 \uc874\uc7ac\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uc644\ubcbd\ud55c \ub17c\ub9ac\uc801 \uc138\uacc4\ub97c \uc6b0\ub9ac \ub9c8\uc74c\uc18d\uc5d0 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uc5b4\ub0c5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"5c88e5d652\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CYou+need+a+story+to+displace+a+story.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fko%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\"\uc2a4\ud1a0\ub9ac\ub97c \ub300\uccb4\ud558\ub824\uba74 \uc2a4\ud1a0\ub9ac\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\" - \ub098\uc2ec \ub2c8\ucf5c\ub77c\uc2a4 \ud0c8\ub819&nbsp;<span>1TP5\ub354\ube14\ub799\uc2a4\uc644<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CYou+need+a+story+to+displace+a+story.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fko%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>\ud2b8\uc717\ud558\ub824\uba74 \ud074\ub9ad<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ub17c\ub9ac\uc801\uc778 \uc2a4\ud1a0\ub9ac\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uac08\ub9dd\uc740 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 \ubcf4\ub294 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uac83\uc758 \uc6d0\uc778\uc744 \ucc3e\ub3c4\ub85d \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub97c \ubc00\uc5b4\ubd99\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \uc124\uba85\uc740 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc744 \ud558\ub098\ub85c \ubb36\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc694 \uc81c\ud488\uc740 \"\uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801 \uc9c4\uc2e4\"\uc744 \ucda9\uc871\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uc5b5\ud558\uae30 \uc26c\uc6b4 \uc2a4\ud1a0\ub9ac\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"5c88e5d652\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+more+we+try+to+turn+history+into+anything+other+than+an+enumeration+of+accounts+to+be+enjoyed+with+minimal+theorizing%2C+the+more+we+get+into+trouble.+Are+we+so+plagued+with+the+narrative+fallacy%3F%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fko%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\"\uc5ed\uc0ac\ub97c \ucd5c\uc18c\ud55c\uc758 \uc774\ub860\ud654\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c \uc990\uae38 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uae30\ub85d\uc758 \uc5f4\uac70\uac00 \uc544\ub2cc \ub2e4\ub978 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubc14\uafb8\ub824\uace0 \ud560\uc218\ub85d \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ub354 \ub9ce\uc740 \ubb38\uc81c\uc5d0 \ubd09\ucc29\ud558\uac8c \ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ub0b4\ub7ec\ud2f0\ube0c \uc624\ub958\uc5d0 \uc2dc\ub2ec\ub9ac\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uac83\uc77c\uae4c\uc694?\" - \ub098\uc2ec \ub2c8\ucf5c\ub77c\uc2a4 \ud0c8\ub819&nbsp;<span>1TP5\ub354\ube14\ub799\uc2a4\uc644<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+more+we+try+to+turn+history+into+anything+other+than+an+enumeration+of+accounts+to+be+enjoyed+with+minimal+theorizing%2C+the+more+we+get+into+trouble.+Are+we+so+plagued+with+the+narrative+fallacy%3F%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fko%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>\ud2b8\uc717\ud558\ub824\uba74 \ud074\ub9ad<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Black swan events lie beyond the information we have. Yet still, we distort facts. Reducing information into a set of facts affects our reactions to rare events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc0b6\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \uc811\uadfc \ubc29\uc2dd\uc740 \ud06c\uac8c \ub450 \uac00\uc9c0 \ubc94\uc8fc\uc5d0 \uc18d\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uccab \ubc88\uc9f8\ub294 \uc9c1\uad00\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc21c\uc2dd\uac04\uc5d0 \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ub0b4\ub9ac\ub294 \uacbd\ud5d8\uc801 \uc811\uadfc \ubc29\uc2dd\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ud734\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud2f1(\uc9c0\ub984\uae38)\uc744 \uac1c\ubc1c\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud734\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud2f1\uc740 \ud2b9\uc815 \uc0ac\uac74\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uba74\ud588\uc744 \ub54c \ube60\ub978 \ud574\uacb0\ucc45\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uac8c \ud574\uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ube60\ub978 \ud574\uacb0\ucc45\uc740 \ubbf8\ub355\uc774 \ub418\uc5b4\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc9c0\ub984\uae38\uc740 \uacb0\ud568\uc774 \uc788\ub294 \uc815\ubcf4\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud560 \ub54c \ud574\ub85c\uc6b8 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ub458\uc9f8, \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \uc774\ud574\ud558\uace0 \ub300\uc751\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \ub178\ub825, \uc989 \"\uc0ac\uace0\"\ub97c \uc801\uc6a9\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uacfc\uc815\uc740 \uc885\uc885 \ub290\ub9ac\uace0 \uc810\uc9c4\uc801\uc774\uba70 \ub17c\ub9ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c4\ud589\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc0ac\uace0\ub294 \ud734\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud2f1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc2e4\uc218\uac00 \uc801\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub354 \uc88b\uc740 \uc810\uc740 \uc758\uc0ac \uacb0\uc815 \ub2e8\uacc4\ub97c \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uc5ec \ud2b9\uc815 \uc624\ub958\ub97c \uc218\uc815\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The first system made us believe that the black swans are non-existent. Thinking could have eliminated the problem. A systematic inquiry into the question would have eliminated biases. Heuristics are often based on emotions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We must overcome the fallacy of creating stories by better understanding current events, and studying matters at a deeper level to learn fundamental drivers. We should also treat the black swans as possibilities and prepare for worst-case scenarios accordingly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\uc2a4\ud1a0\ub9ac\uc0f7 #5: \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uacfc\uac70\uc5d0 \uc77c\uc5b4\ub09c \uc77c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uac71\uc815\ud558\uace0 \ubd84\uba85\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \uac83\uc740 \ubaa8\ub450 \ubb34\uc2dc\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc885\uc885 \uc0ac\uac74\uc744 \uc124\uba85\ud560 \ub54c \ube44\ud604\uc2e4\uc801\uc778 \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \uc624\ub958\uc5d0 \ube60\uc9c0\uace4 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc989\uac01\uc801\uc778 \ud658\uacbd\uc758 \uc694\uc778\uc744 \uad00\ub9ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub354 \ub098\uc05c \uac83\uc740 \uad50\uc2e4\uacfc \uac19\uc774 \uc0b4\uade0\ub41c \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc815\uc744 \uc138\uc6b4\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uacfc\ud559 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ub54c\ub54c\ub85c \uadf8 \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \uac70\uc758 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ubc1b\uc544\ub4e4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"5c88e5d652\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+Black+Swan+asymmetry+allows+you+to+be+confident+about+what+is+wrong%2C+not+about+what+you+believe+is+right.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fko%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\"\ube14\ub799\uc2a4\uc644 \ube44\ub300\uce6d\uc131\uc740 \uc633\ub2e4\uace0 \ubbff\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \ud2c0\ub9b0 \uac83\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ud655\uc2e0\uc744 \uac00\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uac8c \ud574\uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4.\" - \ub098\uc2ec \ub2c8\ucf5c\ub77c\uc2a4 \ud0c8\ub819&nbsp;<span>1TP5\ub354\ube14\ub799\uc2a4\uc644<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+Black+Swan+asymmetry+allows+you+to+be+confident+about+what+is+wrong%2C+not+about+what+you+believe+is+right.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fko%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>\ud2b8\uc717\ud558\ub824\uba74 \ud074\ub9ad<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc2ec\uc9c0\uc5b4 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\uc5d0 \ud655\ub960\uc744 \ud560\ub2f9\ud558\uae30\ub3c4 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc774\ub97c \uad00\ub9ac\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ucda9\ubd84\ud55c \ub9ac\uc18c\uc2a4\ub97c \uc544\ub07c\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\ub97c \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \uc900\ube44\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc778\uc9c0\uc801 \ud3b8\uacac\uc744 \uac04\uacfc\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b4 \uc77c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc0b6\uc758 \uc2e0\ube44\ub97c \ub354 \uc798 \uad00\ub9ac\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \uc774\ub97c \uadf9\ubcf5\ud574\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ub354 \ub113\uc740 \ubc94\uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \ubb38\uc81c\ub97c \ud0d0\uad6c\ud574\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc5f0\uad6c \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ubc1b\uc544\ub4e4\uc5ec\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf9\ub2e8\uc801\uc778 \ubcc0\uc218(\uc774\uc0c1\uce58)\ub97c \uc624\ub958\ub85c \uce58\ubd80\ud558\uc9c0 \ub9d0\uc544\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf9\ub2e8\uac12\uc758 \uc6d0\uc778\uacfc \ubcf8\uc9c8\uc744 \uc774\ud574\ud558\uba74 \ub354 \ub098\uc740 \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \uc5bb\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"5c88e5d652\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CMistaking+a+naive+observation+of+the+past+as+something+definitive+or+representative+of+the+future+is+the+one+and+only+cause+of+our+inability+to+understand+The+Black+Swan.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fko%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\"\uacfc\uac70\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc21c\uc9c4\ud55c \uad00\ucc30\uc744 \ubbf8\ub798\ub97c \uacb0\uc815\uc801\uc774\uac70\ub098 \ub300\ud45c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ucc29\uac01\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774\uc57c\ub9d0\ub85c \ube14\ub799\uc2a4\uc644\uc744 \uc774\ud574\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\ub294 \uc720\uc77c\ud55c \uc6d0\uc778\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\" - \ub098\uc2ec \ub2c8\ucf5c\ub77c\uc2a4 \ud0c8\ub819&nbsp;<span>1TP5\ub354\ube14\ub799\uc2a4\uc644<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CMistaking+a+naive+observation+of+the+past+as+something+definitive+or+representative+of+the+future+is+the+one+and+only+cause+of+our+inability+to+understand+The+Black+Swan.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fko%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>\ud2b8\uc717\ud558\ub824\uba74 \ud074\ub9ad<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\uc2a4\ud1a0\ub9ac\uc0f7 #6: \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ub354 \ub611\ub611\ud574\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uacfc\uc2e0\uc740 \ub354 \ube60\ub978 \uc18d\ub3c4\ub85c \ucee4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc778\uac04\uc740 \ud56d\uc0c1 \uc608\uce21\uc744 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubd88\ud589\ud788\ub3c4,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/pascalemmanuelgobry\/2012\/07\/26\/how-to-predict-the-future-in-3-simple-steps\/?sh=41c274da1c5d\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"> \uc815\ud655\ud55c \uc608\uce21\uc744 \ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/a>. \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \uba38\ub9ac\ub85c\ub294 \uc77c\uc0c1\uc801\uc778 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\ub97c \uc774\ud574\ud558\uace0 \ud2b8\ub80c\ub4dc\ub97c \uad00\ub9ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc778\ud130\ub137\uacfc \ube14\ub85d\uccb4\uc778\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \ud604\ub300 \uae30\uc220\uc740 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \uc0b6\uc744 \ud615\uc131\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ubbf8\ub798\ub97c \uc608\uce21\ud560 \ub54c \uc758\ud559\uc801 \ud601\uc2e0\uacfc \uacfc\ud559\uc5d0 \uc758\uc874\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ubc1c\uc804\uc774 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58 \ubabb\ud55c \uac83\uc774\uc5c8\ub294\uc9c0 \uc78a\uc5b4\ubc84\ub9ac\uace0 \uc608\uce21\uc5d0 \uacfc\uc2e0\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ub3d9\uc77c\ud55c \ud3b8\uacac\uc5d0 \uadfc\uac70\ud558\uc5ec \uc608\uce21\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \uc774\uc57c\uae30\uc5d0 \uc9d1\ucc29\ud558\uace0 \uc774\uc6a9 \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc5d0 \uadfc\uac70\ud558\uc5ec \uc608\uce21\uc744 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \ucd94\uc815\uce58\ub294 \uc815\ubcf4\uac00 \ub108\ubb34 \ucd95\uc18c\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \ub54c\ub9cc \uc815\ud655\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"5c88e5d652\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9C...we+are+demonstrably+arrogant+about+what+we+think+we+know.+We+certainly+know+a+lot%2C+but+we+have+a+built-in+tendency+to+think+that+we+know+a+little+bit+more+than+we+actually+do%2C+enough+of+that+little+bit+to+occasionally+get+into+serious+trouble.%E2%80%9C+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fko%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\"...\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 \uc54c\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc0dd\uac01\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uba85\ubc31\ud558\uac8c \uc624\ub9cc\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ud655\uc2e4\ud788 \ub9ce\uc740 \uac83\uc744 \uc54c\uace0 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc2e4\uc81c\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc870\uae08 \ub354 \ub9ce\uc774 \uc54c\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc0dd\uac01\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ub418\uc5b4 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ub54c\ub54c\ub85c \uc2ec\uac01\ud55c \ubb38\uc81c\ub97c \uc77c\uc73c\ud0ac \uc815\ub3c4\ub85c \uc870\uae08\ub9cc \uc54c\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\" - \ub098\uc2ec \ub2c8\ucf5c\ub77c\uc2a4 \ud0c8\ub819&nbsp;<span>1TP5\ub354\ube14\ub799\uc2a4\uc644<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9C...we+are+demonstrably+arrogant+about+what+we+think+we+know.+We+certainly+know+a+lot%2C+but+we+have+a+built-in+tendency+to+think+that+we+know+a+little+bit+more+than+we+actually+do%2C+enough+of+that+little+bit+to+occasionally+get+into+serious+trouble.%E2%80%9C+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fko%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>\ud2b8\uc717\ud558\ub824\uba74 \ud074\ub9ad<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc774\uc81c \uace0\uae09 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ubd84\uc11d\uc774 \uac00\ub2a5\ud574\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2ec\uc9c0\uc5b4 \uc2dc\ubbac\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \uc815\ud655\ub3c4\ub85c \ubbf8\ub798\ub97c \uc608\uce21\ud560 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ub354 \ub611\ub611\ud574\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc804\uc784\uc790\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uc804\ubb38\ud654\ub41c \uc704\ud5d8 \ubd84\uc11d \ub3c4\uad6c\ub97c \uac1c\ubc1c\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 \uc608\uce21\uc744 \ub354 \uc798\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc77c\uae4c\uc694, \uc544\ub2c8\uba74 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \ub2a5\ub825\uc744 \uacfc\uc2e0\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc77c\uae4c\uc694?<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"5c88e5d652\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+payoff+of+a+human+venture+is%2C+in+general%2C+inversely+proportional+to+what+it+is+expected+to+be.%E2%80%9C+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fko%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\"\uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\uac04 \ubca4\ucc98\uc758 \uc131\uacfc\ub294 \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\ub294 \uc131\uacfc\uc5d0 \ubc18\ube44\ub840\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\" - \ub098\uc2ec \ub2c8\ucf5c\ub77c\uc2a4 \ud0c8\ub819&nbsp;<span>1TP5\ub354\ube14\ub799\uc2a4\uc644<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+payoff+of+a+human+venture+is%2C+in+general%2C+inversely+proportional+to+what+it+is+expected+to+be.%E2%80%9C+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fko%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>\ud2b8\uc717\ud558\ub824\uba74 \ud074\ub9ad<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uacb0\ub860\uc801\uc73c\ub85c, \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc5f4\ub9b0 \ub9c8\uc74c\uc73c\ub85c \uc0ac\uac74\uc744 \uc5f0\uad6c\ud568\uc73c\ub85c\uc368 \uc0ac\uac74\uc744 \uc774\ud574\ud560 \ub54c \ub354 \ub098\uc740 \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \uc5bb\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\uce21\uc744 \uc790\uae30 \uc778\uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c \ub300\uccb4\ud574\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc778\uc0dd\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \uc131\uacf5\uc740 \ubbf8\ub798\ub97c \uc608\uce21\ud558\ub294 \ub2a5\ub825\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ub824 \uc788\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\uac83\uc740 \ub9e4\uc77c \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\ub294 \uc0ac\uac74\uc5d0 \ub300\uc751\ud558\uace0 \uad00\ub9ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc900\ube44\uc131\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ub824 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\uc2a4\ud1a0\ub9ac\uc0f7 #7: \ubb38\uc81c\ub97c \uc608\uce21\ud558\ub294 \ub2a5\ub825\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ubb38\uc81c\ub97c \ucc98\ub9ac\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \uc544\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ub354 \uc911\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc704\ub300\ud55c \uc77c\uc740 \uc885\uc885 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58 \ubabb\ud55c \uacf3\uc5d0\uc11c \uc77c\uc5b4\ub0a9\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \ud604\uc7ac \uc138\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc7a5 \uc704\ub300\ud55c \uad6d\uac00 \uc911 \ud558\ub098\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc774\ub294 \uc6b0\uc5f0\ud55c \ubc1c\uacac\uc774\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud0d0\ud5d8\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 \uc778\ub3c4\ub85c \uac00\ub294 \uae38\uc744 \ucc3e\uace0 \uc788\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uadf8 \ud6c4 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \ubb34\uc791\uc704 \ud574\uc678 \uc601\ud1a0\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc1c\uc804\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\uc81c \ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \uad6c\uae00, \uc544\ub9c8\uc874, \ub9c8\uc774\ud06c\ub85c\uc18c\ud504\ud2b8\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \uac70\ub300 \uae30\uc5c5\uc758 \ubcf8\uac70\uc9c0\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc5ec\uae30\uc11c \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc778\uc0ac\uc774\ud2b8\ub294 \ub6f0\uc5b4\ub09c \uc608\uce21 \ub2a5\ub825 \uc5c6\uc774\ub3c4 \ubc88\uc601\uacfc \uc131\uacf5\uc744 \uc774\ub8f0 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uadf9\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \ud53c\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \uac10\uc548\ud560 \ub54c, \ucc9c\uc7ac\ub294 \uadf8 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0 \ub300\ucc98\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58 \ubabb\ud55c \ud589\uc6b4\uacfc \uc704\uae30\ub97c \uc608\uce21\ud558\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 \uc774\uc5d0 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc798 \ub300\ube44\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \uc774\ud574\ud574\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\uc2a4\ud1a0\ub9ac\uc0f7 #8: \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \uc608\uce21\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\uc744 \ub54c \ud574\uc57c \ud560 \uc77c<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \uc778\uc9c0\uc801 \uc624\ub9cc\uc740 \uc6b0\ub9ac \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \uac00\uc7a5 \ud070 \uc801\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uacc4\ud68d\uc744 \uc798 \uc138\uc6b0\uace0 \uc2e4\ud589\ud574\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc18c\ud48d \uac00\ub294 \uac83\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc791\uc740 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\uac00 \ub354 \uc720\uc775\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \ud574\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc608\uce21\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uac71\uc815\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \uc548\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"5c88e5d652\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CMissing+a+train+is+only+painful+if+you+run+after+it.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fko%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\"\uae30\ucc28\ub97c \ub193\uce58\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \ucad3\uc544\uac00\uc57c\ub9cc \uace0\ud1b5\uc2a4\ub7ec\uc6b4 \uc77c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\" - \ub098\uc2ec \ub2c8\ucf5c\ub77c\uc2a4 \ud0c8\ub819&nbsp;<span>1TP5\ub354\ube14\ub799\uc2a4\uc644<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CMissing+a+train+is+only+painful+if+you+run+after+it.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fko%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>\ud2b8\uc717\ud558\ub824\uba74 \ud074\ub9ad<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc885\uc885 \uadf9\ub2e8\uc801\uc778 \uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc778\uacfc\uad00\uacc4\uac00 \uc5c6\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uae0d\uc815\uc801\uc778 \ube14\ub799\uc2a4\uc644\uc744 \uc990\uae30\uace0 \ubd80\uc815\uc801\uc778 \ube14\ub799\uc2a4\uc644\uc73c\ub85c \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ubca0\uc774\uc2a4\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud55c \uac83\uc740 \uc544\ub2d9\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"5c88e5d652\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CWhat+is+surprising+is+not+our+magnitude+of+forecast+errors%2C+but+our+absence+of+awareness+of+it.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fko%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\"\ub180\ub77c\uc6b4 \uac83\uc740 \uc608\uce21 \uc624\ub958\uc758 \uaddc\ubaa8\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc608\uce21 \uc624\ub958\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc778\uc2dd\uc774 \uc5c6\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\" - \ub098\uc2ec \ub2c8\ucf5c\ub77c\uc2a4 \ud0c8\ub819&nbsp;<span>1TP5\ub354\ube14\ub799\uc2a4\uc644<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CWhat+is+surprising+is+not+our+magnitude+of+forecast+errors%2C+but+our+absence+of+awareness+of+it.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fko%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>\ud2b8\uc717\ud558\ub824\uba74 \ud074\ub9ad<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc801\uc808\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0 \uc790\uc2e0\uc744 \ubc30\uce58\ud558\uba74 \uc778\uc0dd\uc758 \ubbf8\uc2a4\ud130\ub9ac\ub97c \uad00\ub9ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc190\uc2e4\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc801 \uc218\uc775\uc774 \ub354 \ub9ce\uc740 \uacf3\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\ub7ec\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, \ub3c8\uc744 \ud22c\uc790\ud560 \ub54c \uc548\uc804\ud55c \uae30\uc5c5\uc5d0 \ucd5c\ub300 90%\ub97c \ud560\ub2f9\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc88b\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud22c\uae30\uc131 \uae30\uc5c5\uc5d0 10%\ub97c \ud560\ub2f9\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \ub450 \uac00\uc9c0 \uce21\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2e0\uc911\ud574\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uccab\uc9f8, \uae0d\uc815\uc801\uc778 \ube14\ub799\uc2a4\uc644 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\ub97c \uc990\uae38 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub458\uc9f8, \ubd80\uc815\uc801\uc778 \ube14\ub799\uc2a4\uc644\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0\uc5d0\ub3c4 90%\uc758 \ud22c\uc790\uae08\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\uc2a4\ud1a0\ub9ac\uc0f7 #9: \ub9cc\uc871\uc744 \ub2a6\ucd9c \ub54c \ub354 \ub098\uc740 \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \uc5bb\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ube14\ub799\uc2a4\uc644 \uc0ac\ub0e5\uafbc\uc774 \ub418\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc704\ud5d8\ud55c \ub3c4\uc804\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc704\ud5d8\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \uc778\uc2dd\uc740 \uc885\uc885 \uc9c0\uc18d \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \ubcf4\uc0c1\uc744 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, \ube44\uc988\ub2c8\uc2a4\uc5d0 \ud22c\uc790\ud560 \ub54c \uc548\uc815\uc801\uc778 \uc218\uc775\uc774 \ubcf4\uc7a5\ub418\uace0 \ubd80\uc791\uc6a9\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uae30\ub97c \ubc14\ub77c\ub294 \ud22c\uc790\ub97c \uc120\ud638\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uadf8\ub7ec\ud55c \uae30\uc5c5\uc744 \"\uc131\uacf5\ud55c\" \uae30\uc5c5\uc73c\ub85c \uac04\uc8fc\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uac80\uc740 \ubc31\uc870\ub97c \uc0ac\ub0e5\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \"\uc704\ud5d8\ud55c\" \uc77c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc0ac\ub0e5\uafbc\uc740 \uae0d\uc815\uc801\uc774\ub4e0 \ubd80\uc815\uc801\uc774\ub4e0 \ubc31\uc870\uc758 \ud070 \ubcf4\uc0c1\uc5d0 \ucd08\uc810\uc744 \ub9de\ucd94\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc0ac\ub0e5\uafbc\uc740 \uacc4\uc18d \ucd9c\ud608\uc744 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud3c9\uade0\uc801\uc778 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ud574\uc57c \ud558\ub294 \ud558\ub77d\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \ubcc0\uacbd\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc544 \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \uc785\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uad00\ucc30\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uac1c\uc778\uacfc \uae30\uc5c5\uc744 \"\uc2e4\ud328\uc790\"\ub77c\uace0 \ubd80\ub985\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uac80\uc740 \ubc31\uc870\ub97c \uc0ac\ub0e5\ud558\ub824\uba74 \uc9c0\uc801 \ub2a5\ub825\ub9cc\ud07c\uc774\ub098 \uac1c\uc778\uc801\uc778 \uccb4\ub825\ub3c4 \ud544\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<a href=\"https:\/\/positivepsychology.com\/delayed-gratification-exercises-worksheets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"> \ub9ce\uc740 \uae30\ub2e4\ub9bc\uc774 \ud544\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/a>\ub300\uae30 \uae30\uac04\uc740 \uc54c \uc218 \uc5c6\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, \ud655\uc7a5 \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc9c1\uc5c5\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ud070 \uc218\uc775\uc744 \uc5bb\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc '\uc704\ud5d8\ud55c' \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \ucde8\ud558\uba74 \uc5b8\uc81c\ub4e0 \ub9c9\ub300\ud55c \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \ubcfc \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ube14\ub799\uc2a4\uc644 \uc0ac\ub0e5\uafbc\uc740 \uc5f4\ub9b0 \ub9c8\uc74c\uc744 \uac00\uc9c0\uace0 \ud56d\uc0c1 \uc900\ube44\ub418\uc5b4 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub4e4\uc740 \uadf9\ub2e8\uc801\uc778 \uae0d\uc815\uc801\uc778 \uc0ac\uac74\uacfc \ubd80\uc815\uc801\uc778 \uc0ac\uac74\uc744 \uae30\ub300\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub4e4\uc5d0\uac8c \uadf9\ub2e8\uc801\uc778 \uc0ac\uac74\uc740 \uc9c0\uc5f0\ub41c \ub9cc\uc871\uc758 \uc815\uc810\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Black Swan summary and review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>In summary, a black swan is an improbable event with three key characteristics.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Black Swan is unexpected<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It has a massive impact<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>We offer convincing explanations on how it occurred in an attempt to summarize the storyline<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Notable black swan events include the great success of Google, the 9\/11 terrorist attacks, and the market crash of 1987. Black swan events dominate our lives. We face them both on a societal level, such as the rise of religions and in our personal lives, such as the death of loved ones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc65c \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ube14\ub799\uc2a4\uc644 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\uac00 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \ub54c\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc774\ub97c \uc778\uc9c0\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud560\uae4c\uc694? \ub2f5\uc758 \uc77c\ubd80\ub294 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 \uc778\uac04\uc774\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uac1c\ubcc4\uc801\uc778 \uc0ac\uac74\uc5d0 \ucd08\uc810\uc744 \ub9de\ucd94\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 \uc138\ubd80\uc801\uc778 \ud559\uc2b5\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc885\uc885 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 \uc54c\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uac83\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ud568\uc73c\ub85c\uc368 \uc2a4\uc2a4\ub85c\ub97c \ubd88\uad6c\ub85c \ub9cc\ub4ed\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc885\uc885 \ubb34\uc2dc\ud558\ub294 \ub9ce\uc740 \ud3b8\uacac\uc744 \uac00\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uae30\ud68c\uc640 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uacfc\uc18c\ud3c9\uac00\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc0ac\uac74\uc744 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud654\ud558\uace0, \ubd84\ub958\ud558\uace0, \uc124\uba85\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub54c\ub54c\ub85c \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc77c\ubd80 \uc0ac\uac74\uc744 \ubd88\uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc30\uc81c\ud558\uae30\ub3c4 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc911\uc694\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \uad00\ub828 \uc5c6\ub294 \uc0ac\uac74\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc704\ud5d8\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uac83\uc744 \uc774\ud574\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc0ac\uac74\uc740 \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub97c \uacc4\uc18d \ub180\ub77c\uac8c \ud558\uace0 \ud2b9\uc815 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \ub2ec\uc131\ud558\ub824\ub294 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \ub178\ub825\uc744 \uc88c\uc808\uc2dc\ud0b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ube14\ub799 \uc2a4\uc644 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\uc5d0 \ub300\ucc98\ud558\ub294 \uac04\ub2e8\ud55c \uc694\ub839\uc774 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc778\uc0dd\uc758 \ub3cc\ubc1c \uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub824\uba74 \ucd5c\uc545\uc758 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\uc138\uc694. \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc774 \ub192\uc740 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc5d0 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\ud558\uc138\uc694. \ub610\ud55c \uc0ac\uac74\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud558\ub294 \ub300\uc2e0 \ud2b8\ub80c\ub4dc\ub97c \uc774\ud574\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc9d1\uc911\ud558\uc138\uc694. \uae0d\uc815\uc801\uc778 \ube14\ub799 \uc2a4\uc644\uc774 \uc0b6\uc744 \ubcc0\ud654\uc2dc\ud0ac \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\ubbc0\ub85c \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uc138\uc694. \ud68c\uc758\uc8fc\uc758\ub294 \ud544\uc218\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc54c\ub824\uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \ubcc0\uc218\ub97c \uace0\ub824\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \uc544\uc774\ub514\uc5b4\ub294 \ud53c\ud558\uc138\uc694. \ubcf4\uc0c1\uc774 \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc801 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ucd08\uacfc\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0 \ucc98\ud574 \ubcf4\uc138\uc694.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">\ube14\ub799 \uc2a4\uc644<\/a> <\/em>\ub294 \ub180\ub78d\uace0 \uc6b0\uc544\ud558\uba70 \ubcf4\ud3b8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc801\uc6a9\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ucc45\uc5d0\ub294 \uc77c\uc0c1\uc801\uc778 \uc0ac\uac74\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uacbd\uac74\ud568, \uc7ac\uce58, \uc2a4\ub9b4 \ub118\uce58\ub294 \ub9ac\ubdf0\uac00 \ub2f4\uaca8 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ucc45\uc740 \ub098\uc2ec \ud0c8\ub819\uc758 \uc218\ub9ce\uc740 \uac78\uc791 \uc911 \ud558\ub098\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ucc45\uc740 \uc801\uc5b4\ub3c4 \ubd80\ubd84\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub098\ub9c8 \uc778\uc0dd\uc758 \ubbf8\uc2a4\ud130\ub9ac\ub97c \ud480\uc5b4\ub0b4\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc778\uc0dd\uc758 \uadf9\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0 \ub300\ucc98\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uac04\ub2e8\ud55c \uaddc\uce59\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uc88b\uc740 \uac83\uc740 \ubb34\uc5c7\uc77c\uae4c\uc694?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Black Swan summary rating<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ube14\ub799 \uc2a4\uc644\uc744 4.3\/5\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-yet-another-stars-rating-overall-rating yasr-overall-block\"><!--Yasr Overall Rating Shortcode--><div class='yasr-custom-text-before-overall' id='yasr-custom-text-before-overall'>\uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \uc810\uc218<\/div><div class=\"yasr-overall-rating\"><div class='yasr-rater-stars'\r\n                           id='yasr-overall-rating-rater-34a32da456dca'\r\n                           data-rating='4.4'\r\n                           data-rater-starsize='24'>\r\n                       <\/div><\/div><!--End Yasr Overall Rating Shortcode--><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud3b8\uc9d1\uc790 \uc8fc<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc774 \ubb38\uc11c\ub294 2021\ub144\uc5d0 \ucc98\uc74c \uac8c\uc2dc\ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2022\ub144 8\uc6d4\uc5d0 \ub300\ud3ed \uc5c5\ub370\uc774\ud2b8 \ubc0f \uc218\uc815\ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ube14\ub799 \uc2a4\uc644 PDF, \uc778\ud3ec\uadf8\ub798\ud53d, \ubb34\ub8cc \uc624\ub514\uc624\ubd81 \ubc0f \uc560\ub2c8\uba54\uc774\uc158 \ucc45 \uc694\uc57d<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ube14\ub799 \uc2a4\uc644 \uc694\uc57d\ubcf8\uc5d0\uc11c \ubb34\uc5c7\uc744 \ubc30\uc6e0\ub098\uc694? \uac00\uc7a5 \ub9c8\uc74c\uc5d0 \ub4e4\uc5c8\ub358 \uc810\uc740 \ubb34\uc5c7\uc778\uac00\uc694? \uc774 \uc694\uc57d\uc744 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \uac1c\uc120\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc744\uae4c\uc694? \uc544\ub798\uc5d0 \ub313\uae00\uc744 \ub2ec\uac70\ub098 \ud2b8\uc704\ud130\ub85c \uc54c\ub824\uc8fc\uc138\uc694. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/storyshots\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\uc2a4\ud1a0\ub9ac\uc0f7<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc774\uac83\uc740 \ube59\uc0b0\uc758 \uc77c\uac01\uc5d0 \ubd88\uacfc\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc790\uc138\ud55c \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc744 \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcf4\uace0 \ub098\uc2ec \ub2c8\ucf5c\ub77c\uc2a4 \ud0c8\ub819\uc744 \uc751\uc6d0\ud558\ub824\uba74 \uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0\uc11c \ucc45\uc744 \uc8fc\ubb38\ud558\uac70\ub098 \uc624\ub514\uc624\ubd81\uc744 \ubc1b\uc73c\uc138\uc694. <a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\ubb34\ub8cc<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc2a4\ud1a0\ub9ac\uc0f7\uc744 \ucc98\uc74c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc2dc\ub098\uc694?<a href=\"https:\/\/go.getstoryshots.com\/free\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.getstoryshots.com\/free\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> \ucd5c\uace0 \uc778\uae30 \ubb34\ub8cc \uc571 \ub2e4\uc6b4\ub85c\ub4dc<\/a> \uc744 \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc5ec \uc774 \uc694\uc57d\ubcf8\uacfc \uc218\ubc31 \uad8c\uc758 \ub2e4\ub978 \ubca0\uc2a4\ud2b8\uc140\ub7ec \ub17c\ud53d\uc158 \ub3c4\uc11c\uc758 PDF\/ePub, \uc624\ub514\uc624\ubd81, \uc778\ud3ec\uadf8\ub798\ud53d \ubc0f \uc560\ub2c8\uba54\uc774\uc158 \ubc84\uc804\uc5d0 \uc561\uc138\uc2a4\ud558\uc138\uc694. \uc2a4\ud1a0\ub9ac\uc0f7\uc740 Apple, Google, UN, \uac00\ub514\uc5b8, \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8\uc5d0\uc11c \uc138\uacc4 \ucd5c\uace0\uc758 \ud559\uc2b5 \uc571 \uc911 \ud558\ub098\ub85c \uc18c\uac1c\ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\uad00\ub828 \ub3c4\uc11c \uc694\uc57d<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ko\/books\/thinking-fast-and-slow-summary\/\">\ube60\ub974\uace0 \ub290\ub9ac\uac8c \uc0dd\uac01\ud558\uae30<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ko\/books\/Antifragile-summary\/\">\uc548\ud2f0\ud504\ub798\uadf8\ub9c8\uc77c<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ko\/books\/the-intelligent-investor-summary\/\">\uc9c0\ub2a5\ud615 \ud22c\uc790\uc790<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ko\/books\/money-master-the-game-summary\/\">\ub3c8 \uac8c\uc784 \ub9c8\uc2a4\ud130\ud558\uae30<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ko\/books\/predictably-irrational-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"248\">\uc608\uce21 \ubd88\uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \ube44\ud569\ub9ac\uc131<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ko\/books\/the-snowball-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"4540\">\uc2a4\ub178\uc6b0\ubcfc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ko\/books\/how-not-to-be-wrong-summary\/\">\ud2c0\ub9ac\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ko\/books\/think-again-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"50321\">\ub2e4\uc2dc \uc0dd\uac01\ud558\uae30<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ko\/books\/outliers-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"402\">\uc774\uc0c1\uac12<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ko\/books\/homo-deus-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"319\">\ud638\ubaa8 \ub370\uc6b0\uc2a4<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ko\/books\/ten-lessons-for-a-post-pandemic-world-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"49231\">\ud32c\ub370\ubbf9 \uc774\ud6c4\uc758 \uc138\uc0c1\uc744 \uc704\ud55c 10\uac00\uc9c0 \uad50\ud6c8<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/ko\/books\/the-innovators-dilemma-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"228\">\ud601\uc2e0\uac00\uc758 \ub51c\ub808\ub9c8<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-1024x1024.png\" alt=\"The Black Swan book summary, PDF &amp; Infographic\" class=\"wp-image-58892\" style=\"width:290px;height:auto\" title=\"The Black Swan book summary, PDF &amp; Infographic\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-1024x1024.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-768x768.png 768w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-12x12.png 12w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-600x600.png 600w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots.png 1080w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The Black Swan book summary &amp; PDF &amp; Infographic<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ub192\uc740 \uc0b6\uc758 \uc601\ud5a5\uc774 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