{"id":3454,"date":"2022-08-26T14:13:29","date_gmt":"2022-08-26T14:13:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/?page_id=3454"},"modified":"2024-12-23T09:05:06","modified_gmt":"2024-12-23T09:05:06","slug":"the-black-swan-summary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/sv\/books\/the-black-swan-summary\/","title":{"rendered":"Den svarta svanen Sammanfattning | Nassim Nicholas Taleb"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Effekterna av det mycket osannolika<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Livet \u00e4r hektiskt. Har\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/kCdCogG\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Den svarta svanen<\/em><\/a>\u00a0har samlat damm i din bokhylla? Plocka ist\u00e4llet upp de viktigaste id\u00e9erna nu. Vi skrapar bara p\u00e5 ytan h\u00e4r. Om du inte redan har boken kan du best\u00e4lla den <a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/the-black-swan-book\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">h\u00e4r<\/a>\u00a0eller f\u00e5 den\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/kCdCogG\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">gratis ljudbok<\/a>\u00a0p\u00e5 Amazon f\u00f6r att f\u00e5 reda p\u00e5 de saftiga detaljerna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"200\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/playlist.megaphone.fm?e=PARSIDA7035840384&amp;light=true\" width=\"100%\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Introduktion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Har du n\u00e5gonsin gjort en omfattande plan, men den misslyckades \u00e4nd\u00e5? Befinner du dig i extrema positiva eller negativa situationer och misslyckas med att g\u00f6ra det b\u00e4sta valet?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Du \u00e4r inte ensam. \u00c4nnu b\u00e4ttre, du \u00e4r i gott s\u00e4llskap. \u00c4ven planer som g\u00f6rs med o\u00e4ndliga resurser kan misslyckas. Regeringar kan inte ta itu med problem som arbetsl\u00f6shet och krig. De kan inte heller ta vara p\u00e5 m\u00f6jligheter genom att felf\u00f6rdela offentliga resurser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>B\u00e4ttre planering g\u00f6r det m\u00f6jligt f\u00f6r dig att ta vara p\u00e5 m\u00f6jligheterna. F\u00f6rberedelse g\u00f6r att du kan minska f\u00f6rlusterna n\u00e4r katastrofer intr\u00e4ffar. Hur f\u00f6rbereder du dig f\u00f6r ov\u00e4ntade h\u00e4ndelser i livet? Kan du f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttra dina planers framg\u00e5ng?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"><em>Den svarta svanen<\/em><\/a> utg\u00e5r fr\u00e5n att livet \u00e4r fullt av \u00f6verraskningar. En del \u00e4r goda och en del \u00e4r katastrofala. I boken granskas h\u00e4ndelser som Internets framv\u00e4xt och f\u00f6r\u00f6dande krig. Den studerar ocks\u00e5 v\u00e5r tendens att ge f\u00f6rklaringar n\u00e4r vi konfronteras med betydelsefulla h\u00e4ndelser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The book offers insight into the nature of unexpected events. It also looks at typical human reactions. Finally, it provides tips on managing life\u2019s extremes better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Om Nassim Nicholas Taleb<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/nassim-nicholas-taleb\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/nassim-nicholas-taleb\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Nassim Nicholas Taleb<\/a> \u00e4r en libanesisk-amerikansk f\u00f6rfattare. Han \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 statistiker, riskanalytiker och tidigare optionshandlare. <em>Den svarta svanen<\/em> \u00e4r en av de filosofiska ess\u00e4erna i fem volymer, <em>Incerto<\/em>. Han publicerade <em>Incerto <\/em>mellan 2001 och 2018. Taleb undervisar i riskteknik vid NYU Tandon School of Engineering och \u00e4r en <em>Risk- och beslutsanalys <\/em>medredakt\u00f6r f\u00f6r tidskriften. Dessutom har den anm\u00e4rkningsv\u00e4rda statistikern skrivit \u00f6ver ett dussintal inspirerande b\u00f6cker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Talebs strategi f\u00f6r riskhantering gjorde att han kunde dra nytta av dagens finanskriser. Han f\u00f6respr\u00e5kar en \"black swan\"-strategi f\u00f6r finansmarknaderna som tar h\u00e4nsyn till sv\u00e5rf\u00f6ruts\u00e4gbara h\u00e4ndelser i beslutsfattandet. Taleb f\u00f6respr\u00e5kar ocks\u00e5 decentraliserad vetenskaplig forskning och str\u00e4var efter att \u00f6verbrygga luckor i nuvarande studier.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nassim Taleb har skrivit fyra andra b\u00f6cker i <em>Incerto<\/em>. These books have won many accolades and have gained a global audience. Taleb\u2019s unique style includes a mixed narrative; the reporting is semi-autobiographical and philosophical. In summary, it has led <em>Den svarta svanen <\/em>och vann flera utm\u00e4rkelser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #1: The Black Swan Events are Unprecedented and Have a Huge Impact. Later, They Are Explained Away as Predictable<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Historien och samh\u00e4llet hoppar - den \u00f6kande f\u00f6r\u00e4ndringen sker inte som vi f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar oss. Det vetenskapliga tillv\u00e4gag\u00e5ngss\u00e4ttet inneb\u00e4r att man f\u00f6ljer h\u00e4ndelser utifr\u00e5n progression. Tyv\u00e4rr r\u00f6r sig samh\u00e4llen fr\u00e5n brott till brott, och att f\u00f6rklara h\u00e4ndelser med hj\u00e4lp av orsak och verkan \u00e4r bristf\u00e4lligt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>People mainly saw white swans for the majority of history. Some societies even believed that the black swans did not exist. A group of explorers first saw a black swan in Western Australia in 1967. The stunning news spread across Europe and the world like wildfire. The tale of the black swan inspired many scholars. Philosophers such as John Stuart Mill used the term \u2018<em>svart svan<\/em>' n\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller s\u00e4llsynta, osannolika h\u00e4ndelser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Taleb proposes that <strong>the black swan<\/strong> events have the following characteristics:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>De \u00e4r inte f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntade.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>De har en betydande inverkan p\u00e5 v\u00e4rlden.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>M\u00e4nniskor ger senare \u00f6vertygande f\u00f6rklaringar till vad som h\u00e4nde.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Bland k\u00e4nda svarta svanh\u00e4ndelser kan n\u00e4mnas andra v\u00e4rldskriget och b\u00f6rskraschen 1987. Den 11 september 2001 och uppt\u00e4ckten av antibiotika \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 svarta svanh\u00e4ndelser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Lebanese Civil War was a black swan event. Christians and Muslims had lived peacefully for over 1300 years. The Lebanese culture preached tolerance. Schoolchildren respected their neighbors\u2019 cultures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ett blodigt religionskrig avslutade den unika civilisationen. Skolbarn s\u00e5g i chock p\u00e5 n\u00e4r grannar v\u00e4nde sig mot varandra. Bomber och kulor krossade bostadsomr\u00e5den. Libanon f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntade sig att kriget skulle sluta om \"n\u00e5gra dagar\". Det varade i sjutton \u00e5r. Senare erbj\u00f6d forskare \u00f6vertygande f\u00f6rklaringar till krigets orsak och karakt\u00e4r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Black swan events extend to the expansion of small cults to global religions. Later generations are born thinking of particular beliefs as facts of life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #2: Vi lever i Extremistan, en oj\u00e4mlik v\u00e4rld med of\u00f6ruts\u00e4gbara extrema utbrytare<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Vi lever i tv\u00e5 skilda v\u00e4rldar: <a href=\"https:\/\/people.wou.edu\/~shawd\/mediocristan--extremistan.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">mediokristan och extremistan<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I mediokristan \u00e4r allting lika och likartat. M\u00e4nniskorna kom fr\u00e5n den h\u00e4r v\u00e4rlden. Det \u00e4r den naturliga v\u00e4rlden som matchar v\u00e5r intuition. Vi tror att aspekter som v\u00e5r l\u00e4ngd och l\u00f6ner i konventionella parametrar \u00e4r lika.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The world is moving to extremistan. In extremistan, outliers have a disproportionate impact. It isn\u2019t easy to wrap our heads around the new information. Consider a group of 50 people. One individual could have more wealth than the other 49 members combined. A single group member could also be much taller than the others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I mediokristan f\u00f6rlitar vi oss p\u00e5 kollektivets tyranni. Vi fokuserar p\u00e5 det uppenbara. Vi f\u00f6rutsp\u00e5r framtiden och f\u00f6rbereder oss f\u00f6r den. I extremistan dominerar det enskilda individets tyranni samh\u00e4llet. Olyckor och osynliga h\u00e4ndelser dikterar v\u00e5ra liv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Teknik och global uppkoppling \u00e4r en del av skulden f\u00f6r extremistan. Tryckpressen, televisionen och Internet har p\u00e5skyndat processen mot en extremistisk v\u00e4rld.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>V\u00e4rlden kommer att drabbas av akuta pandemier. Enstaka bakterier kommer att dominera v\u00e5ra liv, trots de vetenskapliga genombrott som vi har gjort. F\u00e4rre m\u00e4nniskor och f\u00f6retag kommer att kontrollera mer rikedom. Oj\u00e4mlikheten kommer att \u00f6ka och modeflugan kommer att bli mer akut.<strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #3: We Overvalue What We Know and are Blind to What We Don\u2019t Know<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2002, Donald Rumsfeld, the US Secretary of Defense, commented on the war in Iraq. He said that there are \u201cknown knowns,\u201d \u201cknown unknowns,\u201d and \u201cunknown unknowns.\u201d The answer amused the press. Rumsfeld added that the things we are unaware of have an immense impact on our lives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The concept of \u201cunknown unknown\u201d is now an extensive field to study. Most media stations ridiculed it. The quote expresses the risks we face when deciding. We have limited understanding. A turkey raised on a farm celebrates the farmers\u2019 generosity. Then Thanksgiving comes. The turkey feels safe because of the absence of evidence that the farmer is cruel.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"7d20d414f8\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+problem+with+experts+is+that+they+do+not+know+what+they+do+not+know.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb+%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fsv%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cThe problem with experts is that they do not know what they do not know.\u201d \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb #theblackswan<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+problem+with+experts+is+that+they+do+not+know+what+they+do+not+know.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb+%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fsv%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Klicka f\u00f6r att twittra<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p>Avsaknaden av bevis \u00e4r inte ett bevis p\u00e5 avsaknad av bevis. H\u00e4ndelser som attackerna den 11 september 2001, bostadskraschen och Libanonkriget har skadat samh\u00e4llen mycket. Dessa h\u00e4ndelser intr\u00e4ffade trots att det saknades prejudikat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Det finns tysta bevis. Ofta kan vi inte se dem p\u00e5 grund av v\u00e5r besatthet av naiva observationer i det f\u00f6rflutna. V\u00e5r f\u00f6rdomsfullhet str\u00e4cker sig till att gr\u00e4va fram ensidiga bevis f\u00f6r att st\u00f6dja v\u00e5ra \u00f6vertygelser. Vi fokuserar p\u00e5 uppenbara bevis och kan inte unders\u00f6ka fr\u00e5gor som tyder p\u00e5 n\u00e5got annat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00d6verlevnadsbias \u00e4r v\u00e5r tendens att fokusera p\u00e5 framg\u00e5ngsrika exempel och individer. Det \u00e4r vanligt att man tar l\u00e4rdom av f\u00f6rebilder. Men hur \u00e4r det med de osynliga individerna? Vissa m\u00e4nniskor n\u00e5r kanske inte h\u00f6ga niv\u00e5er av framg\u00e5ng. Individer med h\u00e5rt arbete, disciplin och konsekvens kan ocks\u00e5 misslyckas. De flesta m\u00e4nniskor offentligg\u00f6r inte sina misslyckanden, och v\u00e4lm\u00e5ende individer skriver b\u00e4sts\u00e4ljande biografier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vi b\u00f6r studera alla de personer som har gett sig in i ett visst f\u00f6retag. Vi underskattar ofta eller bortser helt fr\u00e5n tysta bevis. Vi skulle dock tj\u00e4na p\u00e5 att \u00f6vervinna v\u00e5ra f\u00f6rdomar.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"7d20d414f8\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CWhen+you+develop+your+opinions+on+the+basis+of+weak+evidence%2C+you+will+have+difficulty+interpreting+subsequent+information+that+contradicts+these+opinions%2C+even+if+this+new+information+is+obviously+more+accurate.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fsv%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cWhen you develop your opinions on the basis of weak evidence, you will have difficulty interpreting subsequent information that contradicts these opinions, even if this new information is obviously more accurate.\u201d \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CWhen+you+develop+your+opinions+on+the+basis+of+weak+evidence%2C+you+will+have+difficulty+interpreting+subsequent+information+that+contradicts+these+opinions%2C+even+if+this+new+information+is+obviously+more+accurate.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fsv%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Klicka f\u00f6r att twittra<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #4: People Create Stories about Why The Black Swans Happened, Which Covers Up How Unexpected They Were<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Vi \u00e4r snabba med att ge f\u00f6rklaringar till orsak och verkan n\u00e4r extrema h\u00e4ndelser intr\u00e4ffar. V\u00e5r k\u00e4rlek till ber\u00e4ttelser g\u00f6r att vi f\u00f6renklar h\u00e4ndelser p\u00e5 bekostnad av viktiga detaljer. Ber\u00e4ttelsefelet skapar en perfekt logisk v\u00e4rld i v\u00e5ra sinnen d\u00e4r \u00f6det inte existerar.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"7d20d414f8\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CYou+need+a+story+to+displace+a+story.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fsv%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cYou need a story to displace a story.\u201d \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CYou+need+a+story+to+displace+a+story.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fsv%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Klicka f\u00f6r att twittra<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p>Our craving for logical stories pushes us to find causes for everything we see. Our explanations bind the facts together. The major product is an easy-to-remember story, satisfying \u201chistorical truths.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"7d20d414f8\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+more+we+try+to+turn+history+into+anything+other+than+an+enumeration+of+accounts+to+be+enjoyed+with+minimal+theorizing%2C+the+more+we+get+into+trouble.+Are+we+so+plagued+with+the+narrative+fallacy%3F%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fsv%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cThe more we try to turn history into anything other than an enumeration of accounts to be enjoyed with minimal theorizing, the more we get into trouble. Are we so plagued with the narrative fallacy?\u201d \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+more+we+try+to+turn+history+into+anything+other+than+an+enumeration+of+accounts+to+be+enjoyed+with+minimal+theorizing%2C+the+more+we+get+into+trouble.+Are+we+so+plagued+with+the+narrative+fallacy%3F%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fsv%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Klicka f\u00f6r att twittra<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p>The Black swan events lie beyond the information we have. Yet still, we distort facts. Reducing information into a set of facts affects our reactions to rare events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>V\u00e5r inst\u00e4llning till livet faller ofta under tv\u00e5 huvudkategorier. I den f\u00f6rsta kategorin \u00e4r vi erfarenhetsbaserade, vi fattar beslut p\u00e5 en br\u00e5kdel av en sekund baserat p\u00e5 intuition. Vi utvecklar heuristik (genv\u00e4gar). De g\u00f6r det m\u00f6jligt f\u00f6r oss att hitta snabba l\u00f6sningar n\u00e4r vi st\u00e4lls inf\u00f6r en viss h\u00e4ndelse. De snabba l\u00f6sningarna b\u00f6r vara dygtiga. Men dessa genv\u00e4gar \u00e4r skadliga n\u00e4r vi anv\u00e4nder felaktig information.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Second, we apply efforts in understanding and responding to various scenarios; \u201cthinking.\u201d The process is often slow, progressive, and logical. Thinking makes fewer mistakes than heuristics. Better still, we can review our decision-making steps to correct specific errors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The first system made us believe that the black swans are non-existent. Thinking could have eliminated the problem. A systematic inquiry into the question would have eliminated biases. Heuristics are often based on emotions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We must overcome the fallacy of creating stories by better understanding current events, and studying matters at a deeper level to learn fundamental drivers. We should also treat the black swans as possibilities and prepare for worst-case scenarios accordingly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #5: Vi oroar oss f\u00f6r vad som h\u00e4nt i det f\u00f6rflutna och ignorerar allt annat som inte \u00e4r uppenbart.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Vi faller ofta offer f\u00f6r att anv\u00e4nda orealistiska modeller n\u00e4r vi f\u00f6rklarar h\u00e4ndelser. Vi kan inte hantera faktorer i v\u00e5r omedelbara omgivning. \u00c4nnu v\u00e4rre \u00e4r att vi g\u00f6r v\u00e5ra antaganden i steriliserade milj\u00f6er som t.ex. klassrum. \u00c4ven inom vetenskaplig forskning accepterar vi ibland resultat utan att ta h\u00e4nsyn till metoden.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"7d20d414f8\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+Black+Swan+asymmetry+allows+you+to+be+confident+about+what+is+wrong%2C+not+about+what+you+believe+is+right.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fsv%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cThe Black Swan asymmetry allows you to be confident about what is wrong, not about what you believe is right.\u201d \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+Black+Swan+asymmetry+allows+you+to+be+confident+about+what+is+wrong%2C+not+about+what+you+believe+is+right.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fsv%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Klicka f\u00f6r att twittra<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p>Vi tilldelar till och med sannolikheter till h\u00e4ndelser. Vi avs\u00e4tter ocks\u00e5 tillr\u00e4ckligt med resurser f\u00f6r att hantera dem. Vi baserar f\u00f6rberedelserna p\u00e5 v\u00e5ra bed\u00f6mningar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Det \u00e4r en utmaning att bortse fr\u00e5n v\u00e5ra kognitiva f\u00f6rdomar. Men vi m\u00e5ste \u00f6vervinna dem f\u00f6r att b\u00e4ttre kunna hantera livets mysterier. Vi m\u00e5ste utforska fr\u00e5gor p\u00e5 en bredare skala. Vi b\u00f6r acceptera resultaten av unders\u00f6kningar. Vi b\u00f6r undvika att avf\u00e4rda extrema variabler (outliers) som fel. Vi m\u00e5r b\u00e4ttre av att f\u00f6rst\u00e5 orsakerna till och arten av outliers i extremistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"7d20d414f8\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CMistaking+a+naive+observation+of+the+past+as+something+definitive+or+representative+of+the+future+is+the+one+and+only+cause+of+our+inability+to+understand+The+Black+Swan.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fsv%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cMistaking a naive observation of the past as something definitive or representative of the future is the one and only cause of our inability to understand The Black Swan.\u201d \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CMistaking+a+naive+observation+of+the+past+as+something+definitive+or+representative+of+the+future+is+the+one+and+only+cause+of+our+inability+to+understand+The+Black+Swan.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fsv%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Klicka f\u00f6r att twittra<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #6: Vi blir allt smartare, men v\u00e5rt \u00f6vertroende v\u00e4xer i snabbare takt<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>M\u00e4nniskor g\u00f6r f\u00f6ruts\u00e4gelser hela tiden. Tyv\u00e4rr,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/pascalemmanuelgobry\/2012\/07\/26\/how-to-predict-the-future-in-3-simple-steps\/?sh=41c274da1c5d\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"> Vi kan inte g\u00f6ra exakta f\u00f6ruts\u00e4gelser.<\/a>. V\u00e5rt sinne kan inte f\u00f6rst\u00e5 dagliga h\u00e4ndelser och hantera trender.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Modern teknik som Internet och blockkedjor formar v\u00e5ra liv. Vi f\u00f6rlitar oss ocks\u00e5 p\u00e5 medicinska genombrott och vetenskap n\u00e4r vi f\u00f6rutsp\u00e5r framtiden. Vi gl\u00f6mmer hur ov\u00e4ntade dessa framsteg var och k\u00e4nner oss \u00f6verdrivet s\u00e4kra p\u00e5 f\u00f6ruts\u00e4gelser. Men vi baserar uppskattningarna p\u00e5 samma f\u00f6rdomar. Vi h\u00e5ller fast vid v\u00e5ra ber\u00e4ttelser och g\u00f6r f\u00f6ruts\u00e4gelser utifr\u00e5n tillg\u00e4ngliga fakta. V\u00e5ra uppskattningar kan bara vara korrekta om v\u00e5r information inte \u00e4r alltf\u00f6r reducerad.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"7d20d414f8\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9C...we+are+demonstrably+arrogant+about+what+we+think+we+know.+We+certainly+know+a+lot%2C+but+we+have+a+built-in+tendency+to+think+that+we+know+a+little+bit+more+than+we+actually+do%2C+enough+of+that+little+bit+to+occasionally+get+into+serious+trouble.%E2%80%9C+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fsv%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201c\u2026we are demonstrably arrogant about what we think we know. We certainly know a lot, but we have a built-in tendency to think that we know a little bit more than we actually do, enough of that little bit to occasionally get into serious trouble.\u201c \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9C...we+are+demonstrably+arrogant+about+what+we+think+we+know.+We+certainly+know+a+lot%2C+but+we+have+a+built-in+tendency+to+think+that+we+know+a+little+bit+more+than+we+actually+do%2C+enough+of+that+little+bit+to+occasionally+get+into+serious+trouble.%E2%80%9C+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fsv%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Klicka f\u00f6r att twittra<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p>Vi har nu avancerad dataanalys. Vi kan till och med anv\u00e4nda simuleringar f\u00f6r att f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ga framtiden med h\u00f6gre precision. Det \u00e4r sant; vi \u00e4r intelligentare. Vi har utvecklat mer specialiserade verktyg f\u00f6r riskanalys \u00e4n v\u00e5ra f\u00f6reg\u00e5ngare. \u00c4r vi b\u00e4ttre p\u00e5 att g\u00f6ra f\u00f6ruts\u00e4gelser, eller \u00e4r vi \u00f6verdrivet sj\u00e4lvs\u00e4kra p\u00e5 v\u00e5r f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga?<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"7d20d414f8\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+payoff+of+a+human+venture+is%2C+in+general%2C+inversely+proportional+to+what+it+is+expected+to+be.%E2%80%9C+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fsv%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cThe payoff of a human venture is, in general, inversely proportional to what it is expected to be.\u201c \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+payoff+of+a+human+venture+is%2C+in+general%2C+inversely+proportional+to+what+it+is+expected+to+be.%E2%80%9C+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fsv%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Klicka f\u00f6r att twittra<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p>Sammanfattningsvis \u00e4r det b\u00e4ttre f\u00f6r oss att f\u00f6rst\u00e5 h\u00e4ndelser genom att studera dem med ett \u00f6ppet sinne. Vi b\u00f6r ers\u00e4tta prognoser med sj\u00e4lvk\u00e4nnedom. V\u00e5r framg\u00e5ng i livet bygger inte p\u00e5 v\u00e5r f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga att f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ga framtiden. Den bygger p\u00e5 v\u00e5r beredskap att reagera p\u00e5 och hantera dagliga h\u00e4ndelser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #7: Det \u00e4r viktigare att veta hur man hanterar problem \u00e4n att kunna f\u00f6rutse dem<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Stora saker \u00e4r ofta ov\u00e4ntade. Amerika kan vara en av de b\u00e4sta nationerna i v\u00e4rlden. \u00c4nd\u00e5 var det en oavsiktlig uppt\u00e4ckt. Utforskare letade efter en v\u00e4g till Indien.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>USA har sedan dess utvecklats fr\u00e5n att vara ett slumpm\u00e4ssigt utomeuropeiskt territorium. Det \u00e4r nu hemvist f\u00f6r j\u00e4ttef\u00f6retag som Google, Amazon och Microsoft. Den viktigaste insikten h\u00e4r \u00e4r att v\u00e4lst\u00e5nd och framg\u00e5ng kan uppst\u00e5 \u00e4ven utan en enast\u00e5ende prognosf\u00f6rm\u00e5ga.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Eftersom det inte g\u00e5r att undkomma extrema h\u00e4ndelser ligger genialiteten i att hantera dem. Vi b\u00f6r f\u00f6rst\u00e5 hur vi b\u00e4st f\u00f6rbereder oss f\u00f6r ov\u00e4ntade \u00f6den och kriser, snarare \u00e4n att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ga dem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #8: Vad g\u00f6r man n\u00e4r man inte kan f\u00f6rutse f\u00f6r\u00e4ndringar?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>V\u00e5r kognitiva arrogans \u00e4r v\u00e5r egen st\u00f6rsta fiende. Vi m\u00e5ste utarbeta och genomf\u00f6ra planer p\u00e5 ett bra s\u00e4tt. Mindre h\u00e4ndelser, som att g\u00e5 p\u00e5 picknick, \u00e4r mer f\u00f6rdelaktiga. Vi b\u00f6r inte oroa oss f\u00f6r storskaliga skadliga f\u00f6ruts\u00e4gelser.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"7d20d414f8\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CMissing+a+train+is+only+painful+if+you+run+after+it.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fsv%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cMissing a train is only painful if you run after it.\u201d \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CMissing+a+train+is+only+painful+if+you+run+after+it.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fsv%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Klicka f\u00f6r att twittra<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p>Ofta kan vi inte f\u00f6rutse extrema h\u00e4ndelser. De saknar ett orsakssamband. Vi beh\u00f6ver inte stora databaser f\u00f6r att njuta av positiva svarta svanar och minska f\u00f6rlusterna med negativa svanar.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"7d20d414f8\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CWhat+is+surprising+is+not+our+magnitude+of+forecast+errors%2C+but+our+absence+of+awareness+of+it.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fsv%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cWhat is surprising is not our magnitude of forecast errors, but our absence of awareness of it.\u201d \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CWhat+is+surprising+is+not+our+magnitude+of+forecast+errors%2C+but+our+absence+of+awareness+of+it.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Fsv%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Klicka f\u00f6r att twittra<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p>Genom att placera dig i r\u00e4tt situationer kan du hantera livets mysterier. Stanna d\u00e4r det finns fler potentiella vinster \u00e4n f\u00f6rluster. N\u00e4r du till exempel investerar dina pengar \u00e4r det b\u00e4ttre att du avs\u00e4tter upp till 90% till s\u00e4kra f\u00f6retag. Att avs\u00e4tta 10% till spekulativa f\u00f6retag \u00e4r f\u00f6rsiktigt p\u00e5 tv\u00e5 viktiga s\u00e4tt. F\u00f6r det f\u00f6rsta kan du njuta av positiva svarta svanh\u00e4ndelser. F\u00f6r det andra har du fortfarande 90% av din investering s\u00e4krad i h\u00e4ndelse av en negativ svart svan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #9: Vi m\u00e5r b\u00e4ttre n\u00e4r vi skjuter upp tillfredsst\u00e4llelsen. Att vara j\u00e4gare av svarta svanar kan vara en riskfylld uppgift<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Our perception of risk is often aimed at giving us sustainable rewards. For instance, in business, we prefer an investment with a steady return and hope for no adverse events. We deem such enterprises as \u201csuccessful.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hunting the black swan is \u201crisky.\u201d The hunter focuses on large payoffs from the back swan \u2013 either positive or negative. Meanwhile, the hunter continues to bleed. We make losses by not changing our position in times of downturn, where we should focus on making an average market reward. Observers refer to such individuals and enterprises as \u201cunsuccessful.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jakten p\u00e5 den svarta svanen kr\u00e4ver personlig uth\u00e5llighet lika mycket som intellektuell f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga.<a href=\"https:\/\/positivepsychology.com\/delayed-gratification-exercises-worksheets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"> Det kr\u00e4vs mycket v\u00e4ntan.<\/a>, and the waiting duration is unknown. For instance, with scalable professions, we can get a huge payoff. We can also make devastating losses at any point by taking a \u201crisky\u201d position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En j\u00e4gare av svarta svanar \u00e4r \u00f6ppen och alltid redo. De f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar sig extrema positiva och negativa h\u00e4ndelser. F\u00f6r dem \u00e4r de extrema h\u00e4ndelserna kulmen p\u00e5 deras f\u00f6rsenade tillfredsst\u00e4llelse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Black Swan summary and review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>In summary, a black swan is an improbable event with three key characteristics.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Black Swan is unexpected<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It has a massive impact<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>We offer convincing explanations on how it occurred in an attempt to summarize the storyline<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Notable black swan events include the great success of Google, the 9\/11 terrorist attacks, and the market crash of 1987. Black swan events dominate our lives. We face them both on a societal level, such as the rise of religions and in our personal lives, such as the death of loved ones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hur kommer det sig att vi inte erk\u00e4nner svarta svanh\u00e4ndelser f\u00f6rr\u00e4n de intr\u00e4ffar? En del av svaret \u00e4r att vi \u00e4r m\u00e4nniskor. Vi fokuserar p\u00e5 att l\u00e4ra oss specifika saker i st\u00e4llet f\u00f6r att fokusera p\u00e5 enskilda h\u00e4ndelser. Ofta skadar vi oss sj\u00e4lva genom att fokusera p\u00e5 det vi vet. Vi har m\u00e5nga f\u00f6rdomar som vi ofta ignorerar. D\u00e4rf\u00f6r underskattar vi m\u00f6jligheter och risker. Vi tenderar att f\u00f6renkla h\u00e4ndelser, kategorisera dem och ge f\u00f6rklaringar. Ibland utesluter vi vissa h\u00e4ndelser som om\u00f6jliga.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>V\u00e5rt fokus p\u00e5 oviktiga och irrelevanta h\u00e4ndelser \u00e4r riskabelt. Vi f\u00f6rst\u00e5r inte allt. Betydande h\u00e4ndelser forts\u00e4tter att \u00f6verraska oss och motarbetar v\u00e5ra anstr\u00e4ngningar att n\u00e5 specifika m\u00e5l. Det finns enkla knep f\u00f6r att hantera svarta svanh\u00e4ndelser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>F\u00f6r att undvika \u00f6verraskningar i livet b\u00f6r du f\u00f6rbereda dig f\u00f6r det v\u00e4rsta scenariot. Placera dig i en bransch med h\u00f6g avkastning. Fokusera ocks\u00e5 p\u00e5 att f\u00f6rst\u00e5 trender i st\u00e4llet f\u00f6r att f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ga h\u00e4ndelser. Utnyttja m\u00f6jligheter eftersom positiva svarta svanar kan f\u00f6r\u00e4ndra ditt liv. Skepsis \u00e4r viktigt - undvik id\u00e9er som inte l\u00e4mnar utrymme f\u00f6r ok\u00e4nda variabler. Placera dig sj\u00e4lv i situationer d\u00e4r vinsterna \u00f6verstiger de potentiella riskerna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Den svarta svanen<\/a> <\/em>is startling, elegant, and universal in its application. The book contains irreverence, wit, and thrilling reviews of daily events. The book is one of many Nassim Taleb masterpieces. It aims at unwrapping \u2013 at least partly \u2013 some of life\u2019s mysteries. What is better than a set of simple rules to enable you to cope with extremes in life?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Black Swan summary rating<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Vi betygs\u00e4tter The Black Swan med 4,3\/5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-yet-another-stars-rating-overall-rating yasr-overall-block\"><!--Yasr Overall Rating Shortcode--><div class='yasr-custom-text-before-overall' id='yasr-custom-text-before-overall'>V\u00e5rt resultat<\/div><div class=\"yasr-overall-rating\"><div class='yasr-rater-stars'\r\n                           id='yasr-overall-rating-rater-bcf63da144919'\r\n                           data-rating='4.4'\r\n                           data-rater-starsize='24'>\r\n                       <\/div><\/div><!--End Yasr Overall Rating Shortcode--><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Redakt\u00f6rens anm\u00e4rkning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Den h\u00e4r artikeln publicerades f\u00f6rst i 2021. Den uppdaterades och reviderades avsev\u00e4rt i augusti 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Den svarta svanen PDF, infografik, gratis ljudbok och animerad boksammanfattning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Vad l\u00e4rde du dig av sammanfattningen av The Black Swan? Vad var din favorit? Hur kan vi f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttra sammanfattningen? Kommentera nedan eller twittra till oss <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/storyshots\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">@storyshots<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Detta var toppen av isberget. Om du vill dyka ner i detaljerna och st\u00f6dja Nassim Nicholas Taleb kan du best\u00e4lla boken h\u00e4r eller k\u00f6pa ljudboken. <a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">gratis<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c4r du ny p\u00e5 StoryShots?<a href=\"https:\/\/go.getstoryshots.com\/free\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.getstoryshots.com\/free\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> Ladda ner v\u00e5r kostnadsfria app som rankas h\u00f6gst<\/a> to access the PDF\/ePub, audiobook, infographic and animated versions of this summary and hundreds of other bestselling nonfiction books. StoryShots has been featured by Apple, Google, the UN, The Guardian and The Economist as one of the world\u2019s best learning apps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sammanfattningar av relaterade b\u00f6cker<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/sv\/books\/thinking-fast-and-slow-summary\/\">T\u00e4nkande, snabbt och l\u00e5ngsamt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/sv\/books\/Antifragile-summary\/\">Antifragil<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/sv\/books\/the-intelligent-investor-summary\/\">Den intelligenta investeraren<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/sv\/books\/money-master-the-game-summary\/\">Pengar Bem\u00e4stra spelet<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/sv\/books\/predictably-irrational-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"248\">F\u00f6ruts\u00e4gbart irrationellt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/sv\/books\/the-snowball-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"4540\">Sn\u00f6boll<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/sv\/books\/how-not-to-be-wrong-summary\/\">Hur man inte f\u00e5r ha fel<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/sv\/books\/think-again-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"50321\">T\u00e4nk om igen<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/sv\/books\/outliers-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"402\">Utflyktingar<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/sv\/books\/homo-deus-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"319\">Homo Deus<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/sv\/books\/ten-lessons-for-a-post-pandemic-world-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"49231\">Tio l\u00e4rdomar f\u00f6r en v\u00e4rld efter en pandemi<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/sv\/books\/the-innovators-dilemma-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"228\">Innovat\u00f6rens dilemma<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-1024x1024.png\" alt=\"The Black Swan book summary, PDF &amp; Infographic\" class=\"wp-image-58892\" style=\"width:290px;height:auto\" title=\"The Black Swan book summary, PDF &amp; Infographic\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-1024x1024.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-768x768.png 768w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-12x12.png 12w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-600x600.png 600w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots.png 1080w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The Black Swan book summary &amp; PDF &amp; Infographic<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Effekterna av det h\u00f6gst osannolika Livet \u00e4r hektiskt. Har The Black Swan samlat damm i din bokhylla? Plocka ist\u00e4llet upp de viktigaste id\u00e9erna nu. Vi skrapar bara p\u00e5 ytan h\u00e4r. Om du inte redan har boken kan du best\u00e4lla den h\u00e4r eller f\u00e5 ljudboken gratis p\u00e5 Amazon f\u00f6r att l\u00e4ra dig de saftiga detaljerna. Introduktion Har du n\u00e5gonsin gjort en ...<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":92971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_kad_blocks_custom_css":"","_kad_blocks_head_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_body_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_footer_custom_js":"","_kadence_starter_templates_imported_post":false,"_kad_post_transparent":"","_kad_post_title":"","_kad_post_layout":"","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"yasr_overall_rating":4.4,"yasr_post_is_review":"","yasr_auto_insert_disabled":"","yasr_review_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4504,4619,4478,4479,4527],"tags":[4624,5,6,4616,4614,4627,4615],"class_list":["post-3454","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","category-infographic","category-investing","category-leadership","category-new","tag-audiobook","tag-book-review","tag-books","tag-infographic","tag-pdf","tag-review","tag-summary"],"acf":[],"yasr_visitor_votes":{"stars_attributes":{"read_only":false,"span_bottom":false},"number_of_votes":0,"sum_votes":0},"taxonomy_info":{"category":[{"value":4504,"label":"Business &amp; Economics"},{"value":4619,"label":"Infographic"},{"value":4478,"label":"Investing"},{"value":4479,"label":"Leadership"},{"value":4527,"label":"New"}],"post_tag":[{"value":4624,"label":"audiobook"},{"value":5,"label":"Book Review"},{"value":6,"label":"Books"},{"value":4616,"label":"infographic"},{"value":4614,"label":"PDF"},{"value":4627,"label":"review"},{"value":4615,"label":"Summary"}]},"featured_image_src_large":["https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-summary-1024x536.png",1024,536,true],"author_info":{"display_name":"StoryShots - Free Book Summaries","author_link":"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/sv\/books\/author\/storyshotsadmin\/"},"comment_info":1,"category_info":[{"term_id":4504,"name":"Business &amp; Economics","slug":"business","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":4504,"taxonomy":"category","description":"","parent":0,"count":57,"filter":"raw","cat_ID":4504,"category_count":57,"category_description":"","cat_name":"Business &amp; Economics","category_nicename":"business","category_parent":0},{"term_id":4619,"name":"Infographic","slug":"infographic","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":4619,"taxonomy":"category","description":"","parent":0,"count":20,"filter":"raw","cat_ID":4619,"category_count":20,"category_description":"","cat_name":"Infographic","category_nicename":"infographic","category_parent":0},{"term_id":4478,"name":"Investing","slug":"investing","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":4478,"taxonomy":"category","description":"","parent":0,"count":34,"filter":"raw","cat_ID":4478,"category_count":34,"category_description":"","cat_name":"Investing","category_nicename":"investing","category_parent":0},{"term_id":4479,"name":"Leadership","slug":"leadership","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":4479,"taxonomy":"category","description":"","parent":0,"count":83,"filter":"raw","cat_ID":4479,"category_count":83,"category_description":"","cat_name":"Leadership","category_nicename":"leadership","category_parent":0},{"term_id":4527,"name":"New","slug":"new","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":4527,"taxonomy":"category","description":"","parent":0,"count":88,"filter":"raw","cat_ID":4527,"category_count":88,"category_description":"","cat_name":"New","category_nicename":"new","category_parent":0}],"tag_info":[{"term_id":4624,"name":"audiobook","slug":"audiobook","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":4624,"taxonomy":"post_tag","description":"","parent":0,"count":11,"filter":"raw"},{"term_id":5,"name":"Book Review","slug":"book-review","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":5,"taxonomy":"post_tag","description":"","parent":0,"count":14,"filter":"raw"},{"term_id":6,"name":"Books","slug":"books","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":6,"taxonomy":"post_tag","description":"","parent":0,"count":16,"filter":"raw"},{"term_id":4616,"name":"infographic","slug":"infographic","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":4616,"taxonomy":"post_tag","description":"","parent":0,"count":12,"filter":"raw"},{"term_id":4614,"name":"PDF","slug":"pdf","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":4614,"taxonomy":"post_tag","description":"","parent":0,"count":13,"filter":"raw"},{"term_id":4627,"name":"review","slug":"review","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":4627,"taxonomy":"post_tag","description":"","parent":0,"count":8,"filter":"raw"},{"term_id":4615,"name":"Summary","slug":"summary","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":4615,"taxonomy":"post_tag","description":"","parent":0,"count":13,"filter":"raw"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3454","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3454"}],"version-history":[{"count":43,"href":"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3454\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":97384,"href":"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3454\/revisions\/97384"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/92971"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3454"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3454"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3454"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}