{"id":3454,"date":"2022-08-26T14:13:29","date_gmt":"2022-08-26T14:13:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/?page_id=3454"},"modified":"2024-12-23T09:05:06","modified_gmt":"2024-12-23T09:05:06","slug":"the-black-swan-summary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/tr\/books\/the-black-swan-summary\/","title":{"rendered":"Siyah Ku\u011fu \u00d6zet | Nassim Nicholas Taleb"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Son Derece Olas\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z Olan\u0131n Etkisi<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hayat \u00e7ok yo\u011fun. Var\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/kCdCogG\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Siyah Ku\u011fu<\/em><\/a>\u00a0kitapl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda toz mu topluyordu? Bunun yerine, temel fikirleri \u015fimdi al\u0131n. Biz burada y\u00fczeyi \u00e7iziyoruz. Kitaba hen\u00fcz sahip de\u011filseniz, sipari\u015f edin <a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/the-black-swan-book\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Burada<\/a>\u00a0ya da\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/kCdCogG\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u00fccretsiz sesli kitap<\/a>\u00a0\u00f6\u011frenmek i\u00e7in Amazon'a t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"200\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/playlist.megaphone.fm?e=PARSIDA7035840384&amp;light=true\" width=\"100%\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Giri\u015f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Hi\u00e7 kapsaml\u0131 bir plan yapt\u0131n\u0131z ama yine de ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu mu? Kendinizi a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 olumlu veya olumsuz durumlarda bulup en iyi se\u00e7imi yapamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z oluyor mu?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yaln\u0131z de\u011filsiniz. Daha da iyisi, iyi bir arkada\u015f\u0131n\u0131z var. Sonsuz kaynaklarla yap\u0131lan planlar bile ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olabilir. H\u00fck\u00fcmetler i\u015fsizlik ve sava\u015f gibi sorunlar\u0131n \u00fcstesinden gelemezler. Kamu kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 yanl\u0131\u015f tahsis ederek f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 da de\u011ferlendiremezler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Daha iyi planlama, f\u0131rsatlardan yararlanman\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r. Haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak ise felaketlerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 azaltman\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r. Beklenmedik ya\u015fam olaylar\u0131na nas\u0131l haz\u0131rlan\u0131yorsunuz? Planlar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir misiniz?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"><em>Siyah Ku\u011fu<\/em><\/a> hayat\u0131n s\u00fcrprizlerle dolu oldu\u011fu \u00f6nermesine dayan\u0131yor. Baz\u0131lar\u0131 iyi, baz\u0131lar\u0131 ise felakettir. Kitap, internetin y\u00fckseli\u015fi ve y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 sava\u015flar gibi olaylar\u0131 inceliyor. Ayr\u0131ca \u00f6nemli olaylarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda a\u00e7\u0131klama getirme e\u011filimimizi de inceliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The book offers insight into the nature of unexpected events. It also looks at typical human reactions. Finally, it provides tips on managing life\u2019s extremes better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Nassim Nicholas Taleb Hakk\u0131nda<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/nassim-nicholas-taleb\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/nassim-nicholas-taleb\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Nassim Nicholas Taleb<\/a> L\u00fcbnan as\u0131ll\u0131 Amerikal\u0131 bir yazard\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 zamanda bir istatistik\u00e7i, risk analisti ve eski opsiyon t\u00fcccar\u0131d\u0131r. <em>Siyah Ku\u011fu<\/em> be\u015f ciltlik felsefi denemelerden biridir, <em>Incerto<\/em>. O yay\u0131nlad\u0131 <em>Incerto <\/em>2001 ve 2018 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda. Taleb, NYU Tandon M\u00fchendislik Okulu'nda risk m\u00fchendisli\u011fi dersleri vermektedir ve <em>Risk ve Karar Analizi <\/em>dergisinin yard\u0131mc\u0131 edit\u00f6r\u00fcd\u00fcr. Ayr\u0131ca, ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc istatistik\u00e7i bir d\u00fczineden fazla ilham verici kitap yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Taleb'in risk y\u00f6netimine yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, \u00e7a\u011fda\u015f finansal krizlerden k\u00e2r etmesini sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Taleb, finansal piyasalarda karar alma s\u00fcrecinde tahmin edilmesi zor olaylara hitap eden siyah ku\u011fu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 savunuyor. Taleb ayr\u0131ca merkezi olmayan bilimsel ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 savunuyor ve mevcut \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalardaki bo\u015fluklar\u0131n \u00fcstesinden gelmeyi ama\u00e7l\u0131yor.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nassim Taleb'in d\u00f6rt kitab\u0131 daha bulunmaktad\u0131r <em>Incerto<\/em>. These books have won many accolades and have gained a global audience. Taleb\u2019s unique style includes a mixed narrative; the reporting is semi-autobiographical and philosophical. In summary, it has led <em>Siyah Ku\u011fu <\/em>bir\u00e7ok \u00f6d\u00fcl kazand\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #1: The Black Swan Events are Unprecedented and Have a Huge Impact. Later, They Are Explained Away as Predictable<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Tarih ve toplumda s\u0131\u00e7ramal\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimler bekledi\u011fimiz gibi ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmez. Bilimsel yakla\u015f\u0131m, olaylar\u0131 ilerlemeye dayal\u0131 olarak izlemeyi i\u00e7erir. Ne yaz\u0131k ki toplumlar k\u0131r\u0131lmadan k\u0131r\u0131lmaya do\u011fru ilerler ve olaylar\u0131 neden-sonu\u00e7 temelinde a\u00e7\u0131klamak kusurludur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>People mainly saw white swans for the majority of history. Some societies even believed that the black swans did not exist. A group of explorers first saw a black swan in Western Australia in 1967. The stunning news spread across Europe and the world like wildfire. The tale of the black swan inspired many scholars. Philosophers such as John Stuart Mill used the term \u2018<em>siyah ku\u011fu<\/em>' nadir, olas\u0131l\u0131k d\u0131\u015f\u0131 olaylara at\u0131fta bulunurken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Taleb proposes that <strong>the black swan<\/strong> events have the following characteristics:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Beklenmiyorlar.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>D\u00fcnya \u00fczerinde hat\u0131r\u0131 say\u0131l\u0131r bir etkiye sahipler.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u0130nsanlar daha sonra neler oldu\u011funa dair ikna edici a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yaparlar.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00d6nemli siyah ku\u011fu olaylar\u0131 aras\u0131nda \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 ve 1987'deki piyasa \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc say\u0131labilir. 11 Eyl\u00fcl ve antibiyotiklerin ke\u015ffi de siyah ku\u011fu olaylar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Lebanese Civil War was a black swan event. Christians and Muslims had lived peacefully for over 1300 years. The Lebanese culture preached tolerance. Schoolchildren respected their neighbors\u2019 cultures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kanl\u0131 bir din sava\u015f\u0131 bu e\u015fsiz uygarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n sonunu getirdi. Okul \u00e7ocuklar\u0131 kom\u015fular\u0131n birbirine d\u00fc\u015fmesini \u015fok i\u00e7inde izledi. Bombalar ve kur\u015funlar yerle\u015fim alanlar\u0131n\u0131 parampar\u00e7a etti. L\u00fcbnan sava\u015f\u0131n \"birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn\" i\u00e7inde bitmesini bekliyordu. Sava\u015f on yedi y\u0131l s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Daha sonra akademisyenler sava\u015f\u0131n nedeni ve do\u011fas\u0131 hakk\u0131nda ikna edici a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yapt\u0131lar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Black swan events extend to the expansion of small cults to global religions. Later generations are born thinking of particular beliefs as facts of life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #2: Ekstremistan'da Ya\u015f\u0131yoruz, \u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemeyen U\u00e7 De\u011ferlere Sahip E\u015fit Olmayan Bir D\u00fcnya<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130ki ayr\u0131 d\u00fcnyada ya\u015f\u0131yoruz: <a href=\"https:\/\/people.wou.edu\/~shawd\/mediocristan--extremistan.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">mediocristan ve extremistan<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mediocristan'da her \u015fey e\u015fit ve benzerdir. \u0130nsanlar bu d\u00fcnyadan geldi. Sezgilerimize uyan do\u011fal d\u00fcnyad\u0131r. Boyumuz ve geleneksel parametrelerdeki maa\u015flar\u0131m\u0131z gibi unsurlar\u0131n e\u015fit oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The world is moving to extremistan. In extremistan, outliers have a disproportionate impact. It isn\u2019t easy to wrap our heads around the new information. Consider a group of 50 people. One individual could have more wealth than the other 49 members combined. A single group member could also be much taller than the others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vasatristan'da, kolektifin tiranl\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00fcveniriz. Bariz olana odaklan\u0131r\u0131z. Gelece\u011fi tahmin eder ve ona haz\u0131rlan\u0131r\u0131z. Ekstremistan'da, tekil olan\u0131n tiranl\u0131\u011f\u0131 topluma hakimdir. Kazalar ve g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeyen olaylar hayatlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 belirler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Teknoloji ve k\u00fcresel ba\u011flanabilirlik a\u015f\u0131r\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n k\u0131smen su\u00e7lusu. Matbaa, televizyon ve internet a\u015f\u0131r\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131 bir d\u00fcnyaya giden s\u00fcreci h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>D\u00fcnya akut salg\u0131nlara maruz kalacak. Yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bilimsel at\u0131l\u0131mlara ra\u011fmen tekil mikroplar hayat\u0131m\u0131za h\u00fckmedecek. Daha az say\u0131da insan ve \u015firket daha fazla serveti kontrol edecek. E\u015fitsizlik artacak ve modalar daha keskin olacak.<strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #3: We Overvalue What We Know and are Blind to What We Don\u2019t Know<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2002, Donald Rumsfeld, the US Secretary of Defense, commented on the war in Iraq. He said that there are \u201cknown knowns,\u201d \u201cknown unknowns,\u201d and \u201cunknown unknowns.\u201d The answer amused the press. Rumsfeld added that the things we are unaware of have an immense impact on our lives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The concept of \u201cunknown unknown\u201d is now an extensive field to study. Most media stations ridiculed it. The quote expresses the risks we face when deciding. We have limited understanding. A turkey raised on a farm celebrates the farmers\u2019 generosity. Then Thanksgiving comes. The turkey feels safe because of the absence of evidence that the farmer is cruel.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"e9beab50f7\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+problem+with+experts+is+that+they+do+not+know+what+they+do+not+know.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb+%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ftr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cThe problem with experts is that they do not know what they do not know.\u201d \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb #theblackswan<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+problem+with+experts+is+that+they+do+not+know+what+they+do+not+know.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb+%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ftr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Tweetlemek i\u00e7in t\u0131klay\u0131n<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p>Kan\u0131t\u0131n yoklu\u011fu, yoklu\u011fun kan\u0131t\u0131 de\u011fildir. 11 Eyl\u00fcl sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, konut krizleri ve L\u00fcbnan sava\u015f\u0131 gibi olaylar toplumlara b\u00fcy\u00fck zarar vermi\u015ftir. Bu olaylar emsal olmamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen meydana gelmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sessiz kan\u0131tlar vard\u0131r. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki naif g\u00f6zlemlere olan tak\u0131nt\u0131m\u0131z nedeniyle \u00e7o\u011fu zaman bunu g\u00f6remeyiz. \u00d6nyarg\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z, inan\u00e7lar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 desteklemek i\u00e7in tek tarafl\u0131 kan\u0131tlar bulmaya kadar uzan\u0131r. Bariz kan\u0131tlara odaklan\u0131r\u0131z ve aksini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcren konular\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131ramay\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hayatta kalma \u00f6nyarg\u0131s\u0131, ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 \u00f6rneklere ve bireylere odaklanma e\u011filimimizdir. Rol modellerden ders almak yayg\u0131nd\u0131r. Peki ya g\u00f6r\u00fcnmez bireyler? Baz\u0131 insanlar y\u00fcksek ba\u015far\u0131 seviyelerine ula\u015famayabilir. S\u0131k\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan, disiplinli ve tutarl\u0131 bireyler de ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olabilir. \u00c7o\u011fu insan ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 duyurmaz ve ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bireyler \u00e7ok satan biyografiler yazarlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Belirli bir giri\u015fimde bulunan t\u00fcm bireyleri incelemeliyiz. Sessiz kan\u0131tlar\u0131 genellikle hafife al\u0131r ya da tamamen g\u00f6z ard\u0131 ederiz. Ancak \u00f6nyarg\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n \u00fcstesinden gelmemiz bize fayda sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"e9beab50f7\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CWhen+you+develop+your+opinions+on+the+basis+of+weak+evidence%2C+you+will+have+difficulty+interpreting+subsequent+information+that+contradicts+these+opinions%2C+even+if+this+new+information+is+obviously+more+accurate.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ftr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cWhen you develop your opinions on the basis of weak evidence, you will have difficulty interpreting subsequent information that contradicts these opinions, even if this new information is obviously more accurate.\u201d \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CWhen+you+develop+your+opinions+on+the+basis+of+weak+evidence%2C+you+will+have+difficulty+interpreting+subsequent+information+that+contradicts+these+opinions%2C+even+if+this+new+information+is+obviously+more+accurate.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ftr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Tweetlemek i\u00e7in t\u0131klay\u0131n<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #4: People Create Stories about Why The Black Swans Happened, Which Covers Up How Unexpected They Were<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc olaylar meydana geldi\u011finde hemen neden-sonu\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 getiririz. Hikayelere olan sevgimiz, kritik detaylar pahas\u0131na olaylar\u0131 basitle\u015ftirmemize neden oluyor. Anlat\u0131 yan\u0131lg\u0131s\u0131, zihnimizde kaderin var olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fckemmel mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir d\u00fcnya yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"e9beab50f7\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CYou+need+a+story+to+displace+a+story.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ftr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cYou need a story to displace a story.\u201d \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CYou+need+a+story+to+displace+a+story.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ftr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Tweetlemek i\u00e7in t\u0131klay\u0131n<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p>Our craving for logical stories pushes us to find causes for everything we see. Our explanations bind the facts together. The major product is an easy-to-remember story, satisfying \u201chistorical truths.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"e9beab50f7\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+more+we+try+to+turn+history+into+anything+other+than+an+enumeration+of+accounts+to+be+enjoyed+with+minimal+theorizing%2C+the+more+we+get+into+trouble.+Are+we+so+plagued+with+the+narrative+fallacy%3F%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ftr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cThe more we try to turn history into anything other than an enumeration of accounts to be enjoyed with minimal theorizing, the more we get into trouble. Are we so plagued with the narrative fallacy?\u201d \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+more+we+try+to+turn+history+into+anything+other+than+an+enumeration+of+accounts+to+be+enjoyed+with+minimal+theorizing%2C+the+more+we+get+into+trouble.+Are+we+so+plagued+with+the+narrative+fallacy%3F%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ftr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Tweetlemek i\u00e7in t\u0131klay\u0131n<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p>The Black swan events lie beyond the information we have. Yet still, we distort facts. Reducing information into a set of facts affects our reactions to rare events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hayata yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131m\u0131z genellikle iki ana kategoriye ayr\u0131l\u0131r. Birincisinde deneyimselizdir; sezgilerimize dayanarak saniyeler i\u00e7inde karar veririz. Sezgisel y\u00f6ntemler (k\u0131sayollar) geli\u015ftiririz. Bunlar belirli bir olayla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler bulmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar. H\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlerin erdemli olmas\u0131 gerekir. Ancak, hatal\u0131 bilgi kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda bu kestirme yollar zararl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Second, we apply efforts in understanding and responding to various scenarios; \u201cthinking.\u201d The process is often slow, progressive, and logical. Thinking makes fewer mistakes than heuristics. Better still, we can review our decision-making steps to correct specific errors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The first system made us believe that the black swans are non-existent. Thinking could have eliminated the problem. A systematic inquiry into the question would have eliminated biases. Heuristics are often based on emotions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We must overcome the fallacy of creating stories by better understanding current events, and studying matters at a deeper level to learn fundamental drivers. We should also treat the black swans as possibilities and prepare for worst-case scenarios accordingly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #5: Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Olanlar \u0130\u00e7in Endi\u015feleniyor ve A\u00e7\u0131k Olmayan Di\u011fer Her \u015eeyi G\u00f6rmezden Geliyoruz<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Olaylar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klarken s\u0131kl\u0131kla ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmayan modeller kullanma hatas\u0131na d\u00fc\u015feriz. Yak\u0131n \u00e7evremizdeki fakt\u00f6rleri y\u00f6netemiyoruz. Daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc, varsay\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131flar gibi sterilize edilmi\u015f ortamlarda yap\u0131yoruz. Bilimsel ara\u015ft\u0131rmalarda bile bazen sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 y\u00f6nteme \u00e7ok az sayg\u0131 g\u00f6stererek kabul ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"e9beab50f7\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+Black+Swan+asymmetry+allows+you+to+be+confident+about+what+is+wrong%2C+not+about+what+you+believe+is+right.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ftr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cThe Black Swan asymmetry allows you to be confident about what is wrong, not about what you believe is right.\u201d \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+Black+Swan+asymmetry+allows+you+to+be+confident+about+what+is+wrong%2C+not+about+what+you+believe+is+right.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ftr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Tweetlemek i\u00e7in t\u0131klay\u0131n<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p>Hatta olaylara olas\u0131l\u0131klar bile at\u0131yoruz. Ayr\u0131ca, bunlar\u0131 y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in yeterli kaynak ay\u0131r\u0131yoruz. Haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmelerimize dayand\u0131r\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bili\u015fsel \u00f6nyarg\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelmek zordur. Yine de hayat\u0131n gizemlerini daha iyi y\u00f6netebilmek i\u00e7in bunlar\u0131n \u00fcstesinden gelmeliyiz. Meseleleri daha geni\u015f bir \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ele almal\u0131y\u0131z. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kabul etmeliyiz. U\u00e7 de\u011fi\u015fkenleri (ayk\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferler) hata olarak g\u00f6rmekten ka\u00e7\u0131nmal\u0131y\u0131z. A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 u\u00e7lar\u0131n nedenlerini ve do\u011fas\u0131n\u0131 anlayarak daha iyi bir duruma gelebiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"e9beab50f7\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CMistaking+a+naive+observation+of+the+past+as+something+definitive+or+representative+of+the+future+is+the+one+and+only+cause+of+our+inability+to+understand+The+Black+Swan.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ftr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cMistaking a naive observation of the past as something definitive or representative of the future is the one and only cause of our inability to understand The Black Swan.\u201d \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CMistaking+a+naive+observation+of+the+past+as+something+definitive+or+representative+of+the+future+is+the+one+and+only+cause+of+our+inability+to+understand+The+Black+Swan.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ftr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Tweetlemek i\u00e7in t\u0131klay\u0131n<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #6: Daha Ak\u0131ll\u0131 Oluyoruz, Ancak Kendimize A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 G\u00fcvenimiz Daha H\u0131zl\u0131 Art\u0131yor<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130nsanlar her zaman tahminlerde bulunurlar. Ne yaz\u0131k ki,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/pascalemmanuelgobry\/2012\/07\/26\/how-to-predict-the-future-in-3-simple-steps\/?sh=41c274da1c5d\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"> do\u011fru tahminler yapamay\u0131z<\/a>. Zihinlerimiz g\u00fcnl\u00fck olaylar\u0131 anlayamaz ve trendleri y\u00f6netemez.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130nternet ve blok zinciri gibi modern teknolojiler hayat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 \u015fekillendiriyor. Gelece\u011fi tahmin ederken t\u0131bbi at\u0131l\u0131mlara ve bilime de g\u00fcveniyoruz. Bu ilerlemelerin ne kadar beklenmedik oldu\u011funu unutuyoruz ve tahminlerde kendimize a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 g\u00fcveniyoruz. Ancak tahminlerimizi de ayn\u0131 \u00f6nyarg\u0131ya dayand\u0131r\u0131yoruz. Hikayelerimize tutunuyor ve mevcut ger\u00e7eklere dayanarak tahminlerde bulunuyoruz. Tahminlerimiz ancak bilgilerimiz \u00e7ok azalmam\u0131\u015fsa do\u011fru olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"e9beab50f7\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9C...we+are+demonstrably+arrogant+about+what+we+think+we+know.+We+certainly+know+a+lot%2C+but+we+have+a+built-in+tendency+to+think+that+we+know+a+little+bit+more+than+we+actually+do%2C+enough+of+that+little+bit+to+occasionally+get+into+serious+trouble.%E2%80%9C+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ftr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201c\u2026we are demonstrably arrogant about what we think we know. We certainly know a lot, but we have a built-in tendency to think that we know a little bit more than we actually do, enough of that little bit to occasionally get into serious trouble.\u201c \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9C...we+are+demonstrably+arrogant+about+what+we+think+we+know.+We+certainly+know+a+lot%2C+but+we+have+a+built-in+tendency+to+think+that+we+know+a+little+bit+more+than+we+actually+do%2C+enough+of+that+little+bit+to+occasionally+get+into+serious+trouble.%E2%80%9C+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ftr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Tweetlemek i\u00e7in t\u0131klay\u0131n<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p>Art\u0131k geli\u015fmi\u015f veri analizine sahibiz. Gelece\u011fi daha y\u00fcksek do\u011frulukla tahmin etmek i\u00e7in sim\u00fclasyonlar\u0131 bile kullanabiliyoruz. Bu do\u011fru; biz daha zekiyiz. Risk analizi i\u00e7in bizden \u00f6ncekilere k\u0131yasla daha \u00f6zel ara\u00e7lar geli\u015ftirdik. Tahminlerde bulunma konusunda daha iyi durumda m\u0131y\u0131z, yoksa yeteneklerimize a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 g\u00fcveniyor muyuz?<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"e9beab50f7\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+payoff+of+a+human+venture+is%2C+in+general%2C+inversely+proportional+to+what+it+is+expected+to+be.%E2%80%9C+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ftr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cThe payoff of a human venture is, in general, inversely proportional to what it is expected to be.\u201c \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CThe+payoff+of+a+human+venture+is%2C+in+general%2C+inversely+proportional+to+what+it+is+expected+to+be.%E2%80%9C+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ftr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Tweetlemek i\u00e7in t\u0131klay\u0131n<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak, olaylar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k bir zihinle inceleyerek anlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda daha iyi durumda oluruz. Tahmin yerine \u00f6z fark\u0131ndal\u0131\u011f\u0131 koymal\u0131y\u0131z. Hayattaki ba\u015far\u0131m\u0131z gelece\u011fi tahmin etme becerimize dayanmaz. G\u00fcnl\u00fck olaylara tepki verme ve bunlar\u0131 y\u00f6netme konusundaki haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131za dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #7: Sorunlarla Nas\u0131l Ba\u015fa \u00c7\u0131k\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 Bilmek, Onlar\u0131 \u00d6ng\u00f6rebilme Yetene\u011finden Daha \u00d6nemlidir<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fck \u015feyler genellikle beklenmediktir. Amerika g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck uluslar\u0131ndan biri olabilir. Yine de tesad\u00fcfi bir ke\u015fifti. Ka\u015fifler Hindistan'a giden bir yol ar\u0131yorlard\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ABD o zamandan beri rastgele bir deniza\u015f\u0131r\u0131 b\u00f6lge olmaktan \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Art\u0131k Google, Amazon ve Microsoft gibi dev \u015firketlere ev sahipli\u011fi yap\u0131yor. Buradaki temel i\u00e7g\u00f6r\u00fc, refah ve ba\u015far\u0131n\u0131n ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc bir \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc yetene\u011fi olmadan da ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilece\u011fidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 olaylardan ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulunduruldu\u011funda, deha onlar\u0131 idare etmekte yatmaktad\u0131r. Beklenmedik talih ve krizleri tahmin etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak yerine, bunlara en iyi \u015fekilde nas\u0131l haz\u0131rlanabilece\u011fimizi anlamal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #8: De\u011fi\u015fimleri Tahmin Edemedi\u011finizde Ne Yapmal\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Bili\u015fsel kibrimiz bizim en b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131m\u0131zd\u0131r. \u0130yi planlar yapmal\u0131 ve uygulamal\u0131y\u0131z. Pikni\u011fe gitmek gibi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck etkinlikler daha faydal\u0131d\u0131r. B\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli zararl\u0131 tahminler konusunda endi\u015felenmemeliyiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"e9beab50f7\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CMissing+a+train+is+only+painful+if+you+run+after+it.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ftr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cMissing a train is only painful if you run after it.\u201d \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CMissing+a+train+is+only+painful+if+you+run+after+it.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ftr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Tweetlemek i\u00e7in t\u0131klay\u0131n<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p>\u00c7o\u011fu zaman a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 olaylar\u0131 tahmin edemeyiz. Sebep-sonu\u00e7 ili\u015fkisinden yoksundurlar. Pozitif siyah ku\u011fular\u0131n tad\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karmak ve negatif olanlarla kay\u0131plar\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck veri tabanlar\u0131na ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z yok.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"ss-ctt-wrapper ss-ctt-style-4\" data-ss-post-id=\"3454\" data-nonce=\"e9beab50f7\">\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CWhat+is+surprising+is+not+our+magnitude+of+forecast+errors%2C+but+our+absence+of+awareness+of+it.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ftr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-tweet\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cWhat is surprising is not our magnitude of forecast errors, but our absence of awareness of it.\u201d \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb&nbsp;<span>#theblackswan<\/span><\/a>\n\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=%E2%80%9CWhat+is+surprising+is+not+our+magnitude+of+forecast+errors%2C+but+our+absence+of+awareness+of+it.%E2%80%9D+-+Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb%C2%A0%23theblackswan&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.getstoryshots.com%2Ftr%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3454&#038;via=storyshots&#038;related=storyshots\" class=\"ss-ctt-link\" data-title=\"Click to Tweet\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t<span>Tweetlemek i\u00e7in t\u0131klay\u0131n<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<svg class=\"ss-svg-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path d=\"M18.244 2.25h3.308l-7.227 8.26 8.502 11.24H16.17l-5.214-6.817L4.99 21.75H1.68l7.73-8.835L1.254 2.25H8.08l4.713 6.231zm-1.161 17.52h1.833L7.084 4.126H5.117z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t<\/div><!-- END .ss-ctt-wrapper -->\n\n\t\t\n\n\n<p>Kendinizi do\u011fru durumlara yerle\u015ftirmek hayattaki gizemleri y\u00f6netmenizi sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r. Potansiyel getirilerin kay\u0131plardan daha fazla oldu\u011fu yerlerde kal\u0131n. \u00d6rne\u011fin, paran\u0131z\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131rken 90%'ye kadar olan k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcvenli giri\u015fimlere ay\u0131rman\u0131z daha iyi olur. Spek\u00fclatif giri\u015fimlere 10% ay\u0131rmak iki temel a\u00e7\u0131dan ihtiyatl\u0131d\u0131r. Birincisi, olumlu siyah ku\u011fu olaylar\u0131n\u0131n tad\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rs\u0131n\u0131z. \u0130kincisi, olumsuz bir siyah ku\u011fu durumunda yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n 90%'sini hala g\u00fcvence alt\u0131nda tutars\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">StoryShot #9: Hazz\u0131 Erteledi\u011fimizde Daha \u0130yi Durumday\u0131z. Siyah Ku\u011fu Avc\u0131s\u0131 Olmak Riskli Bir \u00c7aba Olabilir<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Our perception of risk is often aimed at giving us sustainable rewards. For instance, in business, we prefer an investment with a steady return and hope for no adverse events. We deem such enterprises as \u201csuccessful.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hunting the black swan is \u201crisky.\u201d The hunter focuses on large payoffs from the back swan \u2013 either positive or negative. Meanwhile, the hunter continues to bleed. We make losses by not changing our position in times of downturn, where we should focus on making an average market reward. Observers refer to such individuals and enterprises as \u201cunsuccessful.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Siyah ku\u011fuyu avlamak, entelekt\u00fcel h\u00fcner kadar ki\u015fisel dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k da gerektirir.<a href=\"https:\/\/positivepsychology.com\/delayed-gratification-exercises-worksheets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"> \u00c7ok fazla beklemek gerekiyor<\/a>, and the waiting duration is unknown. For instance, with scalable professions, we can get a huge payoff. We can also make devastating losses at any point by taking a \u201crisky\u201d position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bir siyah ku\u011fu avc\u0131s\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k fikirlidir ve her zaman haz\u0131rd\u0131r. Ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc olumlu ve olumsuz olaylar beklerler. Onlar i\u00e7in a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 olaylar, gecikmi\u015f memnuniyetlerinin doruk noktas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Black Swan summary and review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>In summary, a black swan is an improbable event with three key characteristics.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Black Swan is unexpected<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It has a massive impact<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>We offer convincing explanations on how it occurred in an attempt to summarize the storyline<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Notable black swan events include the great success of Google, the 9\/11 terrorist attacks, and the market crash of 1987. Black swan events dominate our lives. We face them both on a societal level, such as the rise of religions and in our personal lives, such as the death of loved ones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nas\u0131l oluyor da siyah ku\u011fu olaylar\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fene kadar kabul etmiyoruz? Cevab\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 insan olmam\u0131zdan kaynaklan\u0131yor. Tek tek olaylara odaklanmak yerine ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6\u011frenmeye odaklan\u0131yoruz. \u00c7o\u011fu zaman, bildiklerimize odaklanarak kendimizi sakatl\u0131yoruz. \u00c7o\u011fu zaman g\u00f6rmezden geldi\u011fimiz pek \u00e7ok \u00f6nyarg\u0131m\u0131z var. Bu nedenle f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 ve riskleri hafife al\u0131r\u0131z. Olaylar\u0131 basitle\u015ftirme, kategorize etme ve a\u00e7\u0131klamalar sunma e\u011filimindeyiz. Bazen baz\u0131 olaylar\u0131 imkans\u0131z olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00d6nemsiz ve ilgisiz olaylara odaklanmam\u0131z risklidir. Her \u015feyi anlam\u0131yoruz. \u00d6nemli olaylar bizi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmaya ve belirli hedeflere ula\u015fma \u00e7abalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131karmaya devam ediyor. Siyah ku\u011fu olaylar\u0131yla ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kman\u0131n basit p\u00fcf noktalar\u0131 vard\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hayattaki s\u00fcrprizleri azaltmak i\u00e7in en k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryoya haz\u0131rlan\u0131n. Kendinizi y\u00fcksek getirili bir sekt\u00f6rde konumland\u0131r\u0131n. Ayr\u0131ca, olaylar\u0131 tahmin etmek yerine trendleri anlamaya odaklan\u0131n. Olumlu siyah ku\u011fular hayat\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirebilece\u011finden f\u0131rsatlardan yararlan\u0131n. \u015e\u00fcphecilik esast\u0131r - bilinmeyen de\u011fi\u015fkenlere yer b\u0131rakmayan fikirlerden ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n. Kendinizi getirilerin potansiyel riskleri a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumlara yerle\u015ftirin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Siyah Ku\u011fu<\/a> <\/em>is startling, elegant, and universal in its application. The book contains irreverence, wit, and thrilling reviews of daily events. The book is one of many Nassim Taleb masterpieces. It aims at unwrapping \u2013 at least partly \u2013 some of life\u2019s mysteries. What is better than a set of simple rules to enable you to cope with extremes in life?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Black Swan summary rating<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Siyah Ku\u011fu'yu 4.3\/5 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-yet-another-stars-rating-overall-rating yasr-overall-block\"><!--Yasr Overall Rating Shortcode--><div class='yasr-custom-text-before-overall' id='yasr-custom-text-before-overall'>Bizim Puan\u0131m\u0131z<\/div><div class=\"yasr-overall-rating\"><div class='yasr-rater-stars'\r\n                           id='yasr-overall-rating-rater-e9a5ef6c9fe5a'\r\n                           data-rating='4.4'\r\n                           data-rater-starsize='24'>\r\n                       <\/div><\/div><!--End Yasr Overall Rating Shortcode--><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Edit\u00f6r\u00fcn Notu<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu makale ilk olarak 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda yay\u0131mlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. A\u011fustos 2022'de g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f ve b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde revize edilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Siyah Ku\u011fu PDF, \u0130nfografik, \u00dccretsiz Sesli Kitap ve Animasyonlu Kitap \u00d6zeti<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Black Swan'\u0131n \u00f6zetinden ne \u00f6\u011frendiniz? En be\u011fendi\u011finiz \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131m neydi? Bu \u00f6zeti nas\u0131l geli\u015ftirebiliriz? A\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya yorum yap\u0131n veya bize tweet at\u0131n <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/storyshots\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">@storyshots<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu buzda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcnen k\u0131sm\u0131yd\u0131. Ayr\u0131nt\u0131lara dalmak ve Nassim Nicholas Taleb'i desteklemek i\u00e7in kitab\u0131 buradan sipari\u015f edin veya sesli kitab\u0131n\u0131 edinin <a href=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/geni.us\/black-swan-book\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u00fccretsiz<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>StoryShots'ta yeni misiniz?<a href=\"https:\/\/go.getstoryshots.com\/free\" target=\"_blank\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/go.getstoryshots.com\/free\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> En \u00fcst s\u0131radaki \u00fccretsiz uygulamam\u0131z\u0131 indirin<\/a> to access the PDF\/ePub, audiobook, infographic and animated versions of this summary and hundreds of other bestselling nonfiction books. StoryShots has been featured by Apple, Google, the UN, The Guardian and The Economist as one of the world\u2019s best learning apps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u0130lgili Kitap \u00d6zetleri<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/tr\/books\/thinking-fast-and-slow-summary\/\">H\u0131zl\u0131 ve Yava\u015f D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnme<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/tr\/books\/Antifragile-summary\/\">Antifragile<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/tr\/books\/the-intelligent-investor-summary\/\">Ak\u0131ll\u0131 Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/tr\/books\/money-master-the-game-summary\/\">PARA Oyunda Ustala\u015f\u0131n<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/tr\/books\/predictably-irrational-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"248\">Tahmin Edilebilece\u011fi Gibi Mant\u0131ks\u0131z<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/tr\/books\/the-snowball-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"4540\">Kartopu<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/tr\/books\/how-not-to-be-wrong-summary\/\">Nas\u0131l Hatal\u0131 Olunmaz?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/tr\/books\/think-again-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"50321\">Tekrar D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/tr\/books\/outliers-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"402\">Ayk\u0131r\u0131lar<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/tr\/books\/homo-deus-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"319\">Homo Deus<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/tr\/books\/ten-lessons-for-a-post-pandemic-world-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"49231\">Pandemi Sonras\u0131 D\u00fcnya i\u00e7in On Ders<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/tr\/books\/the-innovators-dilemma-summary\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"228\">Yenilik\u00e7inin \u0130kilemi<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-1024x1024.png\" alt=\"The Black Swan book summary, PDF &amp; Infographic\" class=\"wp-image-58892\" style=\"width:290px;height:auto\" title=\"The Black Swan book summary, PDF &amp; Infographic\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-1024x1024.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-768x768.png 768w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-12x12.png 12w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots-600x600.png 600w, https:\/\/www.getstoryshots.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/The-Black-Swan-book-summary-review-PDF-Nassim-Nicholas-Taleb-quotes-chapters-free-audiobook-infographic-analysis-criticism-main-points-storyshots.png 1080w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The Black Swan book summary &amp; PDF &amp; Infographic<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Son Derece Olas\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z Olan\u0131n Etkisi Hayat yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor. Siyah Ku\u011fu kitapl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda tozlanmaya m\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131? Bunun yerine, temel fikirleri \u015fimdi al\u0131n. Biz burada sadece y\u00fczeyi \u00e7iziyoruz. Kitaba hen\u00fcz sahip de\u011filseniz, buradan sipari\u015f verebilir ya da Amazon'dan \u00fccretsiz olarak sesli kitab\u0131n\u0131 edinebilirsiniz. Giri\u015f Hi\u00e7 bir \u015fey yapt\u0131n\u0131z m\u0131?<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":92971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_kad_blocks_custom_css":"","_kad_blocks_head_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_body_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_footer_custom_js":"","_kadence_starter_templates_imported_post":false,"_kad_post_transparent":"","_kad_post_title":"","_kad_post_layout":"","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"yasr_overall_rating":4.4,"yasr_post_is_review":"","yasr_auto_insert_disabled":"","yasr_review_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4504,4619,4478,4479,4527],"tags":[4624,5,6,4616,4614,4627,4615],"class_list":["post-3454","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","category-infographic","category-investing","category-leadership","category-new","tag-audiobook","tag-book-review","tag-books","tag-infographic","tag-pdf","tag-review","tag-summary"],"acf":[],"yasr_visitor_votes":{"stars_attributes":{"read_only":false,"span_bottom":false},"number_of_votes":0,"sum_votes":0},"taxonomy_info":{"category":[{"value":4504,"label":"Business &amp; 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